Monday, April 17, 2006

Monarchy's End: A Few Scenarios


There are a few different ways the monarchy could end.

(1) The Mob Options
(a) The Butcher Option : The king could decide to go for a military crackdown. He might order people killed. 20, maybe 50, maybe 100. We might see a much bigger massacre than Gongabu (Gongabu Massacre). Recently when he met up with the ambassadors from India, China and America, I don't think he was trying to get their ideas for peace and democracy. He was trying to see how much he could punch without the three powers totally giving up on him. If the three ambassadors did not make it clear then they should do so now that they are not going to stomach a military crackdown at any cost, that they will use all levers of powers at their disposal to make him pay for it. If the king goes for the butcher option, the mob might react and go for the Ceausescu option. He might see the mob break into the palace and televise his swift end.

(b) The Hitler option. After exhausting all his options and utterly corenered, after having lost every inch of political territory, after having seen all the rats abandon the sinking ship, the king might dress up in his military fatigue and pull the trigger, and think of it is an honorable exit for himself.
(2) The Political Action Options

A revolution is like attaining nirvana. It is a political high. A revolution can be made to be a very political decision, well thought out, well organized, disciplined. So far the crowd has been a few steps ahead of the seven party alliance leaders. That has to change. We are not trying to end Gyanendra Shaha's life, that is not our goal. We are not trying to have as many martyrs to the cause as possible. We are just trying to end the monarchy, the institution.
(a) Constituent Assembly as meeting ground. I guess the king could come around to it, but to be honest, I just don't see this happening. He could come around to it, and he will still be king all the way to the constituent assembly elections. And he might still be king after that as well. But I kind of trust him to keep acting stupid.

(b) Get the police and the army rank and file to come over to our side. There has to be a concerted effort made to this effect. (Get The Police On Our Side) This would be step 1.

(c) Declare a revolutionary parliament and take over power. (Interim Constitution, Revolutionary Parliament) This would be step 2 after step 1. We have to do steps 1 and 2 before April is over. We can not keep whipping up the fervor forever. This is also a challenge to our dedication to non-violence as the most potent political weapon available. This is our chance to prove we can attain our loftiest goals without shedding blood. (क्रान्ितलाई नबुझ्नु, बुझ पचाउनु)
We in the political leadership have got to do the responsible thing. We sure are not in control of every little detail, but our attempt has to be to minimize bloodshed as much as we can. Some of the things that we could do are as follows.
  1. Must conclude the revolution fast. This can not go on forever.
  2. Be realistic. Read the signs. You could wish the king were sensible, or you could face the reality that he clearly is not, and act accordingly.
My recommendation: Revolutionary Parliament, Interim Constitution.
Bringing People To Justice

We have to make it loud and clear now that villains will be brought to justice. Why? That way we minimize deaths and injuries on our side. That is the least we can do for our demonstrators. That message will also ensure rats will start abandoning the ship faster. The state will crumble around the king faster. That is what we want. We want a swift conclusion.

This is also about affirming the fact that democracy and rule of law are extremely powerful. Rule of law can send villains to jail. Non-violence is a potent politial weapon. Non-violence is not helplessness in the face of fascism. Non-violence is enormous power. We have to send out that message.

In The News

Protest banned in Ring Road area NepalNews
SSP Thapa ignores NHRC summons
Over 100 protestors injured; demonstrations continue across the country on Sunday
Two-digit inflation likely if political crisis continues
King grants audience to three foreign envoys
King grants audience to cabinet vice-chairmen duo; Home Minister holds security meeting
SPA calls on all to join protest; ‘Don’t pay tax to govt’
Thousands of people including civil servants participate in Chitwan demonstration
Constituent assembly is the goal of present movement: Leaders
Among the deceivers CK Lal
Back to the square one: Does SPA have governance strategy?

Demonstrations continue nationwide, thousands take to streets Kantipur Publications
Govt will hold talks with parties based on king’s message: Home Minister
Govt employees lock offices in Chitwan, join SPA's protest demo
Police intervene in journos', tourism entrepreneurs’ rallies; over 30 arrested
‘Rs 23m to crush movement’ ..... Rs 500,000 is being spent daily on spies and informers. ..... 1,500 injured in one week ..... the royal government busted the heads, arms and eyes of 1,500 people during ruthless crackdowns a week ago on the pro-democracy movement. Of these, over two dozen are in critical condition...... Dinesh Sherpa lost one eye when police fired at his eyes. Rajan Rai, another demonstrator, had his intestines forced out during police action...... savagely shooting unarmed protesters in their heads and eyes....... protesters recovering from their injuries at various hospitals have vowed to return to the streets......
Security forces’ kin stage demonstrations
Thousands take to streets in capital; dozens including ex-minister injured in police action
Police beat journalists; 14 injured, 4 arrested
Devyani getting married?
Press the king: Leahy to RNA
फौजको गोलीले १० घाइते
गम्भीर घाइते बनाउन निर्देशन
मन्त्रालय ठप्प पार्न आह्वान
मुलुकभर प्रदर्शन व्यापक
शासन फिर्ता गर'
संकलित रकम मोडल कोषलाई
सद्भावना स्थापना दिवस जेलमा
आयोगविरुद्ध मन्त्री
जनआन्दोलनको कार्यक्रम
गणतान्त्रिक पथमा राजकीय यात्रा
कुर्सीका लागि होइन जनआन्दोलन
अश्रुग्यास र टाउकोमा गोली प्रहार

सद्भावना स्थापना दिवस जेलमा

कास

काठमाडौं, वैशाख ३ - नेपाल सद्भावना पार्टी -आ)को १६औं स्थापना दिवस २ नं. गण महाराजगन्जमा सम्पन्न भएको छ ।

पार्टीका नेताहरू हृदयश त्रिपाठी, राजेन्द्र महतो थुनामा रहेका हुँदा जनआन्दोलनका क्रममा थुनामा रहेका अन्य पार्टीका नेता तथा कार्यकर्ता समेतको सहभागितामा स्थापना दिवस मनाइएको थियो ।

कार्यक्रममा नागरिक समाजका अगुवा कृष्ण पहाडी, श्याम श्रेष्ठ, कांग्रेसका सुनील भण्डारी, एमालेका रामचन्द्र झा, महेन्द्र यादव, प्रजातान्त्रिक कांग्रेसका नरेशबहादुर सिंह, गायक नन्दकृष्ण जोशी, बुद्धिजीवी विजयकान्त कर्ण र अमरेशकुमार सिंहलगायतले शुभकामना व्यक्त गरेका थिए ।



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गम्भीर घाइते बनाउन निर्देशन

कास

काठमाडौं, वैशाख ३ - आन्दोलनकारीलाई पुनः सहभागी हुन नसक्ने गरी घाइते बनाउन उच्च प्रहरी अधिकृतहरूले निर्देशन दिने गरेका छन् ।

प्रहरी स्रोतका अनुसार परिचालन कक्षबाट निर्देशन दिने अधिकृतमा जनपदका एआईजी कृष्ण बस्नेत र सशस्त्रका डीआईजी दिलीप श्रेष्ठ

छन् । उनीहरूले उपत्यका प्रहरी कार्यालयबाट खटिएका प्रहरीलाई त्यस्तो आदेश दिने गर्छन् ।

आन्दोलन दबाउन खटिएका एक डीएसपीले भने- 'स्थितिबारे जाहेर गरेलगत्तै सञ्चार सेेटमै सबैले सुन्ने गरी निर्देशन हुन्छ । अनि कार्यान्वयन गर्न हामी बाध्य हुन्छौं ।' खटिने जनपदलाई अश्रुग्यास र रबरका गोलीसहित बन्दुक दिइएको छ भने सशस्त्रलाई लाठीमात्रै उपलब्ध छ ।

पछिल्लो पटक कीर्तिपुर र बल्खुमा दलहरूको र गौशालामा पत्रकारको जुलुसमा निर्मम पिटिएको थियो ।

कीर्तिपुरमा केही दिनअघि आन्दोलनकारीलाई धर्ना दिन अनुमति दिएका कारण एक एसपीलाई तिनै अधिकारीहरूले 'काम नलाग्ने' भनी प्रधान कार्यालय फिर्ता लगेका थिए

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