Wednesday, November 01, 2006

50-50, 30-30-30-10


All Members Of The Interim Parliament Will Be Nominated

It is my prediction that the party whose parliamentary team in the interim parliament will most closely resemble the national population will emerge the largest party in the constituent assembly. Right now the Maoists look most likely to do it. They might not do right by the Madhesis, but they can be expected to do right by the Janajatis and the women. The UML is least likely to offer a diverse team. It is a party most dominated by the Bahuns. The UML has the most eskewed ethnic representation of any large party.

Say your party gets to nominate 100 of the 300 seats in the interim parliament. Give 50 of those seats to women. Of the 100, give 30 each to Madhesi, Janajati and Bahun-Chhetri, and 10 to Dalit.

That would be the ideal parliamentary team. I want to see which party comes close to that ideal. The party that comes closest will emerge the biggest after the elections.

Money And The Interim Constitution

It is fundamental that there be a provision in the interim constitution that all party finances have to be kept transparent. This is my number one concern right now.

Possibilities of the monarchists pumping money to sway the elections have to be marginalized. All the property the king did not own before he became king should be nationalized immediately. Much of the rest should be frozen for the period of the elections.

All parties should come out saying how much money they have. I want to know how much money the Maoists have. If they have twice the amount that any other party has, all that extra money should go to the state. Perhaps it can be used for the election.

If The Maoists Emerge The Largest Party


Imagine this scenario. The Maoists emerge the largest party in the constituent assembly, the Nepali Congress the second largest, and the UML the third largest.
16 percent said they would vote for the Maoists. Similarly, 14 percent said they would vote for Nepali Congress, 12 percent for CPN-UML and 4 percent for the King
On the first day of the first session of the constituent assembly, the country is declared a republic by the eight parties. At that point, Prachanda could put forth a legitimate claim that he should be Nepal's first president.

As long as the Maoists can assure us all that they are for nonviolent, multiparty politics, I think it is for the people to decide who will be president. The people's will has to count.

Federal Republic And The Nepali Congress

Only if the two Congress factions make a federal republic the plank that brings them back together, and Girija retires, and the second generation takes over does the Congress have any chance.

The Maoist map of nine federal states has a lot of resonance among the people. As long as there is no counter map by a party like the Congress, the Maoists have a huge edge over them.

Modalities To The Constituent Assembly

All such details should not be decided upon now during the peace talks. The peace talks are to work on arms management, on an interim government, and the interim constitution. There has to be a broad discussion in the interim parliament on the modalities to the constituent assembly. That will take months.

Interim Parliament Could Still Declare Republic

That is very possible. Between them, all the Left parties will have the numbers to do so. And so be it.

In The News

OHCHR calls on Maoists to stop ‘law enforcement’ activities NepalNews
Agreement on arms management soon: PM
Int’l concern over Nepal peace process normal: Leaders
‘Interim constitution by mid-November’
Minendra Rijal of Nepali Congress (Democratic) .. interim constitution should pave way for a republic based on the country’s geography. ...... Rajendra Mahato of Nepal Sadbhawana Party (Anandi Devi), Sunil Prajapati of Nepal Workers and Peasants Party and C. P. Mainali of Left Front - stressed the need of promulgating interim constitution, initiate distribution of citizenship certificates to Nepali people who have not received it, to ensure their voting rights for constituent assembly elections, integration of Maoist army and Nepali Army and fair representation of the all sections of the people in the interim governing process
98 percent people in favour of CA polls; monarchy losing popularity: Survey
87 percent of the respondents said that the monarchy’s popularity has declined in the eyes of citizens while 40 percent said decline in popularity was related to the royal massacre of 2001. Thirty-two percent likened the decline in popularity with King Gyanendra’s actions. ..... Seventy-three percent of the respondents were not aware of the meaning of federal state ...... 16 percent said they would vote for the Maoists. Similarly, 14 percent said they would vote for Nepali Congress, 12 percent for CPN-UML and 4 percent for the King. However, 4 percent of the respondents did not want to cast votes for anyone
RJP chief Thapa for democratic Front
Maoists continue to threaten the press: RSF
Leaders hopeful of breakthrough within a week
Maoists get assurance about Gajurel's release
Nepalis in Germany and Russia briefed on the ongoing talks
Maoists beat up NC (D) activist
Interaction programme on ‘democratic republican front’

Govt waives renewal fees of FM, TV stations Kantipur
Maoists reluctant to sign total truce: Minister Gyawali
OHCHR-Nepal calls on CPN-Maoist to stop policing
Resolution of arms issue within days: PM
Maoists thrash NC-D worker
NC condemns Maoist excesses
India 'positive and supportive' about Nepal peace talks, Mukherji tells Maoist leaders
अपहरणपछि चरम यातना
सुत्केरीलाई पाँच दिन भोकै राख्ने चलन
एसएलसीको प्रश्न दस कक्षाबाट मात्रै
केन्द्रको निर्देशनमा कान्तिपुर जलायौं'
बुख्याँचा र राजा

UN asks Nepal rebels to stop "law enforcement" Reuters AlertNet, UK
Nepal Peace Talks at the Crossroads. OhmyNews International, South Korea
Media rights group criticizes Nepal rebels for attacks on ... International Herald Tribune, France

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