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Wednesday, December 14, 2005

King's Peace Overture To Maoists: Fake Or Real?


Nepal king appoints team for talks with Maoists Times of India, India Headed by the king's deputy Kirti Nidhi Bista, vice chairman of the council of ministers, the team also includes two new ministers ..... Home Minister Kamal Thapa and Land Reforms and Management Minister Narayan Singh Pun ..... A day after his appointment, Pun said in his maiden press conference that he would personally take an initiative to start peace parleys. .... Pun, a former colonel of the Royal Nepalese Army, had played an important role in 2003 when he single-handedly brought the insurgents to the table for talks. .... Gyanendra had been hoping to receive an invitation to visit New Delhi from Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran...... But after Saran did not convey any such message from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the king formed the talks team as a second line of strategy..... the new talks team was formed not so much to bring peace to violence-torn Nepal but to create misunderstanding between the Maoists and the opposition parties..... With the Maoists having vowed to disrupt the polls and the opposition parties having begun a campaign asking people to abstain from voting, the king could be looking at new strategies.
Nepal king appoints team for talks with Maoists
Hindustan Times, India

These two news items in the Indian media caught my attention. Curiously this has not been covered in the Nepali media. How come? If this is valid news, as I have reason to believe it is, I do take it positively, though with reservations.

If the king is serious about peace, he needs to do two things immediately.
  1. He needs to reciprocate the Maoist ceasefire immediately.
  2. He needs to accept the concept of a constituent assembly.
Just like the Maoists can not pull a Lenin in Nepal, it is not possible for the king to break the newfound Democrat-Maoist alliance. And if he is trying, he is starting with the wrong partner of the alliance. The Maoists are much less likely to respond to any royal overture than the seven parties.

I doubt the Maoists will respond unless the conditions like in Pun's 2003 are recreated. That would be the first step. If the peace talks offers be unconditional, I am sure the Maoists will respond. Why? Because it is their idea to hold a roundtable conference of all three forces. So if they can start with two of them, they will have the option to expand it and invite the third force, the seven party coalition.

I am cautiously optimistic. I commend the king for this move.

Only a day or two before Kamal Thapa made news by suggesting a major happening is in the works. This might be it.

Pun has some credibility on this count. Within the parameters available to him, he did some important work in 2003, though ultimately fruitless. It is possible Pun might have been in touch with the Maoists even before he joined the cabinet a few days ago. His abduction into the cabinet might have been with the express intent to open up a channel with the Maoists.

The two things I have suggested the king do, why would he do that? One, he has no choice. Two, it really is in his best interests. Three, there are no other outlets for the country.

You can not have peace talks if you are still officially at war.

As for constituent assembly, it is a vague, elaborate term, it can have many shapes. Just look at some of the options.
  1. A constituent assembly that guarantees a ceremonial monarchy, the guarantee resting with the Supreme Court even before elections to that assembly are held. The army would be detached from the monarchy.
  2. A constituent assembly where the monarchy is an open question.
  3. A constituent assembly that takes shape only after the monarchy has been abolished. So the assembly does not even debate the issue. The assembly functions within a republican framework.
Those are only three of the options. There are more. And all of them would qualify for a constituent assembly. If I were the king, I would come around to the idea of a constituent assembly, and push for the first option. He might not get it, that is another thing. It would be for the political parties and the Maoists to come around to it. But then, they just might.

The king's second best option would be to shoot for an all party government that also includes all the royalist parties, and then go for an assembly. He might win the vote.

It is my analysis though that the parties and the Maoists will be okay with the first option if they can have the rest.

And there is no clash. The king has time and again said he is not for an absolute monarchy, that this is the 21st century, and so the monarchy has to be for democracy. If he is honest on that, the first option is precisely what he would seek, I would think. He does not lose with the first option. He gets what he wants. And the other two forces also get what they want. Peace is back. Democracy is back. The Maoists disarm. Everyone ends up happy.

That is why the roundtable conference is so important.

On 2/1 he asked for three years maximum, as in if he can return the country to normalcy in less than three years, he would do so. This is his opportunity to take less than three years.

If, on the other hand, he keeps moving towards the February 8 polls like a rhino, I see the possibility of the Maoists perhaps breaking away from the seven parties in trying to violently disrupt the polls. That would be tragic. A whole new scenario would emerge.

A party like the Maoists are can not afford to take too many U turns. They already have taken a major U turn. They should not be asked to take a second one.

Kamal Thapa, by the way, looks like Suresh Oberoi, have you noticed?

Personally I have a lot of faith in Narayan Singh Pun to pull this off. If he failed in 2003, it was because the talks back then were not unconditional. The parameters he was functioning in were flawed. It was not lack of skills on his part that brought the talks down. The king should provide the parameters this time, and Pun should get down to work.

In The News

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