Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

26: Xi Jinping

How Elon Musk Became a Geopolitical Chaos Agent The world’s richest man has inserted himself in some of the world’s most combustible conflicts...... While plenty of billionaire executives like to tweet their two cents on world affairs, none can come close to Mr. Musk’s influence and ability to cause trouble. ....... Starlink can beam internet service to conflict zones and geopolitical hot spots, and it has become an essential tool of the Ukrainian army. ........ He has called himself a free speech absolutist, and he is expected to take a light touch to moderating Twitter’s content. ....... Nonetheless, Mr. Musk revealed his plan 10 days later on Twitter. The Kremlin publicly supported the idea. ...... This month, Mr. Musk delivered more uncertainty to Ukraine when he said he could not keep paying for Starlink service to the country, making it seem like he was shouldering the expense. In fact, the United States, Britain and Poland have paid SpaceX for at least part of the Starlink cost ...... While he was in Aspen laying out his peace plan for the war in Ukraine, Mr. Musk also waded into unrest in Iran. ...... Starlink offered the potential to bypass the government’s blockade of land-based internet connections that had taken Iranians in many cities offline. ....... Mr. Musk also recently stepped into perhaps the world’s most delicate geopolitical hot spot: Taiwan. ...... Tesla operates a manufacturing facility in Shanghai that produces as much as 50 percent of the company’s new cars. The Beijing government tightly controls how Western companies operate in the country, and observers have long worried about how Tesla’s dependence on China could affect Mr. Musk’s political positions....... This month, Mr. Musk confirmed that he faced pressure from Beijing, when he told the Financial Times that the Chinese government had made it clear that it disapproved of his offering Starlink internet service in Ukraine. Beijing sought assurances, he said, that he would not offer the service in China.



Labour Party Comes Out Swinging at Britain’s New Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak The opposition’s lines of attack, starting with Mr. Sunak’s choice of home secretary and his wife’s wealth, gave a glimpse of where it sees vulnerabilities in the governing Conservatives. ...... It was a bracing debut for Mr. Sunak in the weekly political cage match known as prime minister’s questions ........ Mr. Starmer described a governing party out of control, bereft of ideas, with a standard-bearer who could not relate to the anxieties of ordinary people. ....... “My record is clear,” Mr. Sunak declared, looking unruffled by Mr. Starmer, as his backbenchers cheered and whooped. “When times are difficult in this country, I will always protect the most vulnerable.” ...... The minister, Suella Braverman, was appointed as home secretary, the same job from which she had been fired by Ms. Truss, ostensibly because she sent a government document on her personal email. ....... She is a popular figure on the party’s right, and her endorsement gave him crucial momentum to thwart Mr. Johnson’s efforts to catch him in the race for nominating votes. Her appointment, they said, was a simple quid pro quo.

An Era Just Ended in China Forty-four years ago, Deng Xiaoping kicked off the period of “reform and opening up” that transformed China from a poor, autarkic nation into an emerging global power. President Xi Jinping officially ended that era last week........ Deng Xiaoping’s strategy for China’s spectacular economic achievements had two main components. The first was a collective leadership arrangement within the Communist Party. Deng rejected Western-style democracy, but China’s tumultuous decades under Mao Zedong had taught him that one-man rule is dangerous. He and the party introduced partial checks and balances into politics at the highest level, including term limits. The second component was a single-minded pursuit of economic growth that, Deng famously declared, would be China’s “hard principle.” Officials throughout China dove headlong into promoting growth at all costs — bringing prosperity but also corruption, inequality and heavy industrial pollution. ......... heavily prioritizing national security over the pursuit of economic growth. ........ “National security is the bedrock of national rejuvenation, and social stability is a prerequisite for building a strong and prosperous China.” ......... If there were any remaining doubts about Mr. Xi’s intentions, he dispelled them by vowing that China would stick to its zero-Covid policy, “without wavering.” His government’s approach to the pandemic, a public health policy in name, is in reality the most powerful security tool devised by the Communist Party, restricting access to the country and controlling who can go where, underpinned by tracking apps that citizens and visitors must have on their smartphones. .......... For observers long accustomed to Deng’s growth-first ethos, Mr. Xi’s policy choice is mind-boggling. The Covid controls are angering citizens, crippling China’s economy, decimating domestic consumption, disrupting manufacturing and logistics, and repelling foreign and local investors alike. .......... and is doubling down on repression out of his instinct for self-preservation. ........ an abrupt and sweeping regulatory crackdown last year that has alarmed investors. The market backlash was intense: Within months, more than a trillion dollars in value at many of China’s most innovative companies evaporated. ........ The Trump administration’s chaotic handling of the pandemic prompted Mr. Xi to boast that “the East is rising and the West is declining.” But his triumphalism was premature. China is far from an even match with the United States in economic, military or technological power. And while American democracy is in crisis, the United States remains strong, a true superpower and a free country able to criticize and renew itself. .......... to his credit, he has confronted serious problems that his predecessors swept under the rug, particularly corruption and economic inequality. His vision of a powerful China, respected on the global stage, is warranted given his country’s size and economic clout. ........ Mr. Xi has plunged China into a vicious cycle: A hubristic and authoritarian leader, unaccountable to society and unchallenged even by his own advisers, makes poor policy choices, which add to his problems, exacerbating his fears of a revolt and leading to more repression. .......... China is the world’s second-largest economy and the biggest trading partner of dozens of countries. ....... Chinese tech companies are already expanding overseas to compensate for a restrictive home environment. ...... China under Mao and the former Soviet Union proved that absolute dictatorships fail miserably at making nations prosperous and strong. They bring only impoverishment and false security. Mr. Xi is likely to relearn those lessons in the coming years.

Xi Jinping Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap could spell years of uncertainty as problems mount around an unbound leader who has shown little inclination to share decision-making. ....... Mr. Xi fell into the same trap that has ensnared dictators throughout history: He overreached. He has concentrated more power in his hands than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, looming so completely over the country that he’s been called the “chairman of everything.” ......... He values fealty to himself as more important than competence, and subordinates compete to prove their loyalty by carrying out his policies to the extreme rather than raising harsh truths about negative consequences. ........ The over-concentration of power in Mao’s hands led to decisions such as his misguided Great Leap Forward, a campaign to greatly increase agrarian and industrial output in the late 1950s that led instead to a devastating famine, and the chaotic political violence of the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution. ........ After Mao’s death in 1976, Mr. Deng made leadership competition more predictable by introducing term limits and retirement ages for leading posts in the government and military and giving party institutions more authority. A pattern of decade-long reigns set in. But Mr. Deng refused to give China’s legislature and courts authority over the party. Party institutions — their members all appointed by senior leaders — proved to be pushovers for Mr. Xi. No visible resistance was raised when he engineered the abolition of presidential term limits in 2018, which could allow Mr. Xi, who is 69, to stay in power until he dies or is deposed in a power struggle. ......... And while the rest of the world has learned to live with the pandemic, Mr. Xi has stubbornly refused to loosen his zero-tolerance approach. Officials nationwide are overzealously imposing mass lockdowns and surveillance in a bandwagon dynamic that has echoes of the Great Leap Forward, when officials over-complied with Mao’s damaging directives. ........... For the first time in years, unemployment has become a serious political risk for the party, and a tanking Chinese real estate market threatens to pull down the entire economy. ........ China has militarized disputed islets in the South China Sea, threatened military action against Taiwan, picked a border fight with India and cut off many imports from Australia after that country’s government called for an international investigation into the origins of the pandemic. Mr. Xi destroyed Hong Kong’s autonomy and has deepened China’s isolation from Europe and the United States by aligning with President Vladimir Putin of Russia just before Mr. Putin launched his brutal invasion of Ukraine.

China and Russia Are Giving Authoritarianism a Bad Name The last decade looked like a good one for authoritarian regimes and a challenging one for democratic ones. Cybertools, drones, facial recognition technology and social networks seemed to make efficient authoritarians even more efficient and democracies increasingly ungovernable. ......... Russia and China each overreached. ....... inviting a war with one of Mother Nature’s most contagious viruses — the Omicron mutation of SARS-CoV-2. It’s now led China to lock down all of Shanghai and parts of 44 other cities — some 370 million people. ........... both Moscow and Beijing find themselves suddenly contending with much more powerful and relentless forces and systems than they ever anticipated. And the battles are exposing — to the whole world and to their own people — the weaknesses of their own systems. So much so that the world now has to worry about instability in both countries. .......... Russia is a key supplier of wheat, fertilizer, oil and natural gas for the world. And China is the origin of, or a crucial link in, thousands of global manufacturing supply chains. If Russia is locked out and China is locked down for a prolonged period, every corner of the planet will be affected. And that is no longer a remote possibility. ........

Putin’s Russia is basically built on oil, lies and corruption, and that is not a resilient system.

....... China bet on a “zero Covid” policy. If it could get through the pandemic with fewer deaths and a more open economy, it would be another signal to the world — a big signal — that Chinese communism was superior to American democracy. ........ if the virus mutates globally, as it did with Omicron, and you have “a less than effective vaccine, virtually no natural immunity in the population, and millions of elderly unvaccinated, you’re in a bad place and there is no easy way out.” ......... High-coercion authoritarian systems are low-information systems — so they often drive blind more than they realize. And even when the truth filters up, or reality in the form of a more powerful foe or Mother Nature slams them in the face so hard it can’t be ignored, their leaders find it hard to change course because their claims to the right to be presidents-for-life rest on their claims to infallibility. And that is why Russia and China are both now struggling.


Xi Jinping Is a Captive of the Communist Party Too Since taking leadership of the Chinese Communist Party a decade ago, he mothballed a power-sharing arrangement among party factions, transforming one of the world’s largest political organizations into a unified whole in which his words, thoughts and visage are everywhere. Speaking in 2016, he used a phrase once uttered by Mao Zedong in describing the party as China’s “east, west, south, north and center.” .......... There is indeed an autocrat who rules modern China, but it is the party that Mr. Xi serves, not the man.

And in a strange way, he is as much a captive of the party as everyone else.

............ the party’s fundamental aim: restoring China to its ancient role as a great nation worthy of its Chinese name, “Zhongguo,” “the central country.” ........ This mission has been in the making ever since the depredations China suffered at the hands of Western nations in the 19th and 20th centuries, followed by the collapse of Chinese imperial rule in 1912 and Japan’s savage wartime invasion. The Communist Party picked up the pieces of a broken nation. Mr. Xi’s power derives from the party’s nationalist goal of wiping away those past shames, restoring China’s strength and control over “lost” territories like Taiwan. Revanchism may drive President Vladimir Putin of Russia, but it is the lifeblood of the Chinese Communist Party. .......... During the Cultural Revolution, Maoist student militants ransacked the family’s home; one of Mr. Xi’s sisters died in the mayhem. Paraded publicly as an enemy of the people, his own mother was forced to denounce him. Mr. Xi eventually spent seven years exiled to the countryside as part of Mao’s exhortation to “learn from the peasants.” .......... Convinced that only the party could restore China’s strength, Mr. Xi was not corruptible by material gain, his old friend said. The question was whether he would succumb to the intoxication of power. ........ The decade under his predecessor, Hu Jintao, was one of missed opportunity, the grand mission of national restoration seemingly forgotten. Corrupt local officials governed their turf like petty tyrants, and protests raged over government heavy-handedness, rampant corruption, poor labor conditions and colossal pollution. ......... It is striking how little meaningful pushback he has encountered. Formidable as Mao was, even he encountered opposition to his destructive utopian policies. Deng Xiaoping faced resistance to his market reforms and Jiang Zemin contended with forces that wanted even greater reform. But with Mr. Xi, there has been almost no party dissent ........... The internet could have threatened centralized authoritarian rule, but Mr. Xi’s government has used algorithms, face recognition and mass electronic surveillance to more pervasively assert party power. A technology backwater for much of the 20th century, China now has the world’s most advanced techno-autocracy. ...........

The systematic repression in Xinjiang is the most extreme manifestation of his obsession with preserving stability, even at the risk of international criticism and domestic suffering. The same goes for his uncompromising zero-Covid policy.



China Is Running Covert Operations That Could Seriously Overwhelm Us China has acquired global economic and diplomatic influence, enabling covert operations that extend well beyond traditional intelligence gathering, are growing in scale and threaten to overwhelm Western security agencies. ........ a “breathtaking” Chinese effort to steal technology and economic intelligence and to influence foreign politics in Beijing’s favor. ....... The pace was quickening ......... China can best be described as an intelligence state. The party views the business of acquiring and protecting secrets as an all-of-nation undertaking, to the point that rewards are offered to citizens for identifying possible spies and even schoolchildren are taught to recognize threats. ............ Barely visible on the world stage 30 years ago, China’s intelligence agencies are now powerful and well resourced. They are adept at exploiting the vulnerabilities of open societies and growing dependence on China’s economy to collect vast volumes of intelligence and data. Much of this takes place in the cyber domain .......... China’s consulate in Houston was closed by the Trump administration in 2020 after it served as a national hub for collecting high-tech intelligence. ......... China’s Intelligence Law, which was enacted in 2017, required its citizens to assist intelligence agencies. But this legislation simply formalized a situation that had already been the norm. The wider China challenge comes from organizations and actors engaged in activities that may not conform to normal concepts of espionage. .......... the United Front Work Department, a party organization that seeks to co-opt well-placed members of Chinese diaspora communities — and whose scope has been expanded under Mr. Xi. China also endeavors to entice other Western citizens. A textbook case, exposed this year, involved a British politician whose office received substantial funding from an ethnic Chinese lawyer who thereby gained access to the British political establishment. One Chinese approach is to patiently cultivate relationships with politicians at the city or community level who show potential to rise to even higher office. Another is known as elite capture, in which influential Western corporate or government figures are offered lucrative sinecures or business opportunities in return for advocating policies that jibe with Chinese interests............ Mr. Xi has stressed the need to adopt “asymmetrical” means to catch up to the West technologically. ....... The Soviet Union lost the Cold War not because of its intelligence operations — which were good — but because of the failure of its governing ideals. .......... Western policymakers and intelligence services must innovate and adapt. But they also must ensure that strategies they employ honor the ideals of freedom, openness and lawfulness that pose the greatest threat to the Chinese party-state.

No, Capitalism and the Internet Will Not Free China’s People Communist Party rule of China has been punctuated by one mass public campaign after another, each designed to commandeer Chinese minds in service of the state. ........ Their cumulative effect is one of the Communist Party’s greatest achievements: a near-perfect symbiosis between dictatorial government and subservient population. ........

The government’s nearly three-year-old zero-Covid campaign may be the worst of all.

......... It’s an affront to science and common sense, yet — reminiscent of the mindlessness of the Cultural Revolution — officials and citizens around the country go to ridiculous lengths to execute it. Entire cities are shut down even for small outbreaks, and coronavirus tests are conducted on fish and other food products, cars, even construction materials. ...... When Chengdu, a city of 21 million people, was locked down in September, residents were blocked from leaving their flats even when an earthquake struck. .......... the government now has a system that Mao Zedong could only have dreamed of, powered by data and algorithms, to monitor and control the people. ........ Chinese minds have in fact never truly been free. China has been a largely united, centralized state for most of the past 2,000 years, and similar ethics and a similar relationship between ruler and ruled have endured throughout. No fundamental change is possible; China’s lowly people are expected to merely obey. ....... He came home one night, exhausted, his face black after someone at a political rally dumped a pot of ink over his head. In an example of the helplessness and resignation of China’s people, he suggested that we just imagine that grim place had always been our home, accept our lot in life and get on with it. China’s people still live under this mentality of surrender today. ......... When I ran afoul of authorities in 2011 after criticizing the government, the police threatened me with an “ugly death” and said they would tell all of China about the absurd allegations they leveled, like tax evasion, to discredit me. I asked if China’s people would believe their lies. Ninety percent will, an officer told me. In China, where all “truth” comes from the party, he may have been right. .......... Things have only worsened in the past decade. Authorities have smothered remaining traces of independent thought, decimated Chinese civil society and cast a chill over academia, media, culture and business. ........ Western engagement with China has been driven by the pursuit of profit rather than values. Western leaders criticize Communist Party violations of human rights, free speech and spiritual freedom, but long have continued to do business with Beijing. U.S. hypocrisy about independent thought is evident in its approach to the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who stands for freedom of information but whom the U.S. government is prosecuting. ........ Millions of Chinese take pride in modern China’s growing wealth and power. But this feeling of well-being is a mirage conjured by superficial material gain, constant propaganda about the decline of the West and suppression of intellectual freedom. China is in fact decaying morally under the influence of the party. In 2011, a 2-year-old girl was run over by two vehicles in southern China and left bleeding in a street. Eighteen people passed by without doing anything, some even swerving aside to avoid her. Don’t think, don’t get involved, just keep walking. The girl later died. ........

Freedom relies on courage and sustained risk-taking.

But a vast majority of China’s people feel that resistance, even at the philosophical level, is impossible, and that personal survival depends on compliance. They are reduced to an anxious servility, lining up like sheep in long lines for their coronavirus tests, or scrambling for food before sudden lockdowns. ........... Freedom and individuality can never be completely suppressed. And no country, no matter how strong it appears, can truly prosper without diversity of opinion. But there is no hope for fundamental change in my country while the Communist Party is in power.


The Three Blunders of Joe Biden

'काठमाडौं- ७ बाट उम्मेदवार बन्न ओलीले अफर गर्नुभएको थियो' : स्वर्णीम वाग्ले
टुकुचा अभियानले छेडेको बहस महानगरपालिका स्थानीय सरकार हो तापनि देशको राजधानीमा विकास–निर्माणका काम गर्दा संघीय सरकारसँग समन्वय हुनुपर्छ । त्यसैले टुकुचा अभियानबारे सरकार प्रमुखलाई समय–समयमा जानकारी गराउनुपर्छ । ...... भदौ ६ यता यो लेख लेखुन्जेलको अवधिमा अवैध ढंगबाट निर्माण गरिएका ५६ स्थानका १३५ संरचना भत्काइएका छन् । मेयर बालेन शाहले असोज १५ मा भनेका थिए, ‘कानुनी रूपमा अवैध ठहरिएका सबै संरचना र अनियमित तरिकाले निर्माण गरिएका तथा सार्वजनिक जग्गा मिचेर बनाइएका सबै संरचना भत्काउने कामलाई निरन्तरता दिइनेछ । त्यसका लागि कामनपाले नक्सा अनुसार वैध–अवैध यकिन गरिरहेको छ ।’ ...... नेपाल भाषामा तोरीको साग–डाँठको त्यान्द्रोलाई ‘टुकँचा’ भन्ने गरिन्छ । टुकुचा भन्ने नाम यसै शब्दको अपभ्रंश हो कि भन्ने अड्कल कतिपय अध्ययनार्थीले गरेका छन् । टुकुचा खोलाको आकार ‘टुकँचा’ सागको त्यान्द्रोजस्तै कम चौडा (साँघुरो), तर लमतन्न परेको छ । काठमाडौं महानगरको तत्कालीन सहरी भागको करिब मध्यभागबाट टुकुचा बगेको छ । ....... टुकुचा खोला चुनदेवीदेखि करिब ६.५ किलोमिटर लामो, ४ देखि ८ मिटरसम्म चौडा र ४ देखि १० मिटरसम्मको गहिराइबाट बगेको छ । सजिलोसँग खोलाको पानी बगोस् भनेर खोलामाथि बनाइएको गुम्बजजस्तो संरचना निर्माण गर्दा ठाउँठाउँमा भर्‍याङजस्तो छाँगा बनाइएको छ । लुकेको टुकुचा क्षेत्रमा करिब ८५ घरधुरी छन् । ...... टुकुचा खोला वर्षायाममा जता इच्छा लाग्यो उतै बग्ने भएकाले पौराणिक कालमा यसको नाम ‘इच्छुमती’ राखिएको होला । ....... जय नेपाल सिनेमा हलदेखि कमलादी मोडसम्म छोपिएको भाग खुला गर्न महानागर लागिपरेको छ । त्यस क्रममा भत्काइएका ठाउँमा टुकुचा खुला भएको छ । ........ मेयर बालेन शाहले असोज ७ गते सामाजिक सामाजिक सञ्जालमा लेखेका छन्, ‘नदीमा अदालतले अल्पकालीन आदेश दिएको छ, अदालतले टुकुचा (इच्छुमती) नदीलाई खोला भन्न सक्दैन भने नेपाललाई कसरी नेपाल देश भनेर प्रमाणित गर्छ ?’ उनले भनेका छन्, ‘हामीले टुकुचालाई न्याय दिन खोजेका हौं, त्यसलाई पुरानै लयमा फर्काउन खोजेका हौं । तर नगरवासीलाई दुःख दिने हाम्रो नियत छैन । समस्यामा परेका र कागजपत्र भएकासँग हामी छलफल गर्नर्छौं । अहिले हामी आफ्नो अभियानबाट रोकिने पक्षमा छैनौं । टुकुचामा पानी बग्न ४ मिटर छाडिनेछ भने दायाँबायाँ ४–४ मिटरको करिडोर बन्नेछ । यो काम पाँच वर्षभित्र पूरा गर्ने उद्देश्य छ ।’ ......... अदालतले स्टे अर्डर जारी गर्न थालेपछि महानगर प्रहरी प्रमुखले भने, ‘यो गतिविधि राम्रो भएन । अब महानगरलाई जनताको साथ चाहिन्छ । केही गरौं भनेको, ठूलाबडाहरू अदालत गुहार्न थाले । जसले खोलामाथि घर बनाएको छ, त्यसलाई अदालतले पनि संरक्षण गर्नु हुन्न । नक्सा पास लिएर त्यति बेला घर बनाएको भए पनि नियम अनुसार नै भत्काउन सुरु गरिएको हो । नक्सा पास लिँदैमा खोलामाथिको घर नभत्काउने हो भने टुकुचाको बाँकी भूभाग खाली गर्न कठिन हुने भयो । अदालतको आदेशविपरीत काम गर्न पनि नसकिने भयो ।’ ....... ‘टुकुचाको डुँड ऐतिहासिक–पुरातात्त्विक हो भन्नेमा शंका छैन । यो डुँड सय वर्ष पुरानो भएकाले प्राचीन संरक्षण ऐन अनुसार भत्काउन मिल्दैन । यसलाई मौलिक शैलीमै राख्नुपर्छ । दस दिन अध्ययन गर्दा पनि टुकुचाको समग्र पक्ष पत्ता लगाउन नसकिएकाले अब दसैंपछि खोलाको शिरदेखि अन्त्यसम्मै अध्ययन गरिनेछ । कतिपय ठाउँमा टुकुचा कहाँबाट बगेको छ भन्ने अत्तोपत्तो छैन ।’ ......... संस्कृतिविद् सत्यमोहन जोशीले पनि भनेका थिए, ‘उति बेला नै राजाहरूले खोलालाई बंग्याउँदा त्यसको समस्या अहिले देखिएको छ । खोला सधैं स्वतन्त्र हुनुपर्छ, तर इच्छुमतीलाई राणा र राजाकालीन समयमै खुला बग्न दिएनन् । टुकुचालाई पनि अन्य खोलाजसरी खुला र स्वतन्त्र हुन दिनुपर्छ ।’ ........... त्यति बेला सडक फराकिलो पारिएको हुनाले कलंकी भएर काठमाडौंबाहिर जाने सवारीसाधनको जाम हटेको छ । ........ स्थापितले पाँचतले घर पनि भत्काई माइतीघर मण्डला निर्माणका लागि मार्गप्रशस्त गरेका थिए । मण्डलाले आज काठमाडौंको सान राखेको छ । रत्नपार्कका टहरा पसलहरू भत्काउने समयमा पितृ किरियाकर्ममा रहेका उनी कोरा कपडामै आई डोजर चलाउने आदेश दिएका थिए । उनले ‘सार्वजनिक भलाइको काममा अहिले कसैले छेक्छ भने उसैलाई डोजर लगाउँछु’ भनेका थिए । यस्तो प्रक्रियाले गर्दा आज त्यहाँ शान्ति वाटिका बनेको छ । ....... सर्वसाधारणले रत्नपार्कमा सुगमताका साथ सार्वजनिक सवारीसाधन उपयोग गर्न पाएका छन् । यसै गरी टुँडिखेल पश्चिमको सडक फराकिलो पार्ने क्रममा स्थापितले महाकालस्थान अगाडिको साझाको फार्मेसी भवन, विश्वज्योति सिनेमा अगाडिको सडक फराकिलो पारे अनि बानेश्वर शंकर चिम उकालोको साँघुरो सडक छेउछाउ भत्काई फराकिलो पार्न डोजर नै उपयोग गरेका थिए । धोबीखोला करिडोर अवधारणा उनैले ल्याई भाइकाजी तिवारी (पछि सहरी विकासका प्रमुख आयुक्त भए) लाई त्यसको योजना र निर्माणको काम सुम्पेका थिए । आज धोबीखोला दायाँबायाँ करिडोरमा सडक सुविधा पुगी ट्राफिक व्यवस्थापनमा सहयोग भएको छ । यसै अवधारणाको अनुसरण गरी वाग्मती, विष्णुमती, मनोहरा करिडोर योजना बनाइएका हुन् । मेयर बालेन पनि यसैअनुरूप अहिले टुकुचा करिडोर सडक कार्यलाई सफलीभूत पार्न लागिपरेको बुझिन्छ । ......... तत्कालीन मन्त्रिपरिषद्को २०६५ मंसिर २ गतेको बैठकले वाग्मती–वष्णुमती–मनोहरा नदी, धोबीखोला, बल्खु–साङ्ले–महादेव खोलाका दायाँबायाँ क्रमशः २०–२० मिटर, १२–१२ र ६–६ मिटर अनि टुकुचा खोलाको ४–४ मिटर क्षेत्रभित्र कुनै पनि संरचना निर्माण गर्न रोक लगाउने निर्णय गरेको थियो । यी नदी खोला किनारमा भौतिक संरचना निर्माण गर्नुपरे अधिकारसम्पन्न वाग्मती सभ्यता एकीकृत विकास समितिको अनिवार्य रूपमा स्वीकृति लिनुपर्ने भनिएको थियो । यसै निर्णयअनुसार समितिले टुकुचा खोलाको पूर्वसम्भाव्यता अध्ययन प्रतिवेदन तयार पार्न लगाउने कार्य अगाडि बढाएको थियो । ......... जग्गा प्राप्ति ऐन–२०७६ को दफा ९(१) मा ‘नेपाल सरकारलाई सार्वजनिक हितका लागि आवश्यक पर्ने जहाँसुकैको र जतिसुकै क्षेत्रफल भएको जग्गा यस ऐनबमोजिम प्राप्त गर्ने र त्यस सम्बन्धी यस ऐनबमोजिम कारबाही गर्ने, क्षतिपूर्ति निर्धारण गर्ने पुनःस्थापना वा पुनर्बास योजना स्वीकृत गर्ने तथा अन्य आवश्यक निर्णय गर्ने अधिकार हुनेछ’ भन्ने उल्लेख छ । यस अनुसार सार्वजनिक कार्यका लागि टुकुचाको पानी देखिने गरी खुला गर्न सकिने देखिन्छ । ........ फ्रान्सको पेरिसमा आइफल टावर नजिकैको सेइन नदीलाई दायाँबायाँ पर्खाल लगाएर दुवैतिर प्यारापेट बनाई स्थानीय बासिन्दा तथा पर्यटकका लागि मनोरम वातावरण सृजना गरिएझैं टुकुचा करिडोरलाई पनि यस्तै बनाउने योजना गर्नुपर्छ । ........ मन्त्रिपरिषद्ले निर्धारण गरेको मापदण्डभित्र रहेर नियमसंगत तरिकाबाट टुकुचा अभियान सञ्चालन गर्दा मेयर बालेन शाहलाई केही तत्त्वले आपत्ति जनाए भने त्यस्तो तत्त्वलाई युवा पिँढीले नकार्नेछन् । .

चार वर्षमा चीन-नेपाल सम्बन्धमा नयाँ अध्याय थपेँ सन् २०१८ डिसेम्बरमा म महान् मिसनका लागि जिम्मेवारी काँधमा बोकी भाव व्याकुल भई भगवान बुद्ध जन्मिनु भएको हिमालयको देश नेपालमा आएँ । ....... संयुक्त रूपमा हिमालय वारिपारिको बहुआयमिक कनेक्टिभिटी सञ्चालन निर्माण गरी नेपाललाई 'भूपरिवेष्ठित देश' बाट 'भूजडित देश' मा रूपान्तरण गर्न सहयोग पुर्‍याउनेबारे पनि मतैक्य भएको थियो । ...... चीन र नेपाललाई जोड्ने अरनिको राजमार्गको तेस्रो चरणको मर्मतसम्भार कार्य, काठमाडौं चक्रपथको पहिलो चरणको स्तरोन्नति कार्य सफलतापूर्वक सम्पन्न भइसकेको छ । त्रिभुवन अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय विमानस्थल, गौतम बुद्ध विमानस्थल, पोखरा विमानस्थलको स्तरोन्नति अथवा निर्माण परियोजनाहरु सम्पन्न भई नेपाल पक्षलाई हस्तान्तरण गरिसकिएको छ । माथिल्लो तामाकोसी, माथिल्लो त्रिशूली ३ विद्युत् स्टेसनको विद्युतीय ग्रिडमा जोडी विद्युत् उत्पादन प्रारम्भ भएको छ । चीन नेपाल सीमा पार रेलमार्ग, विद्युतीय ग्रिड सञ्जाल आदिको संभाव्यता अध्ययन प्रारम्भ भइसकेको छ । ........ चीन नेपालको दोस्रो ठूलो व्यापारिक सहकर्मी देश हो, सन् २०२१ मा चीन नेपाल व्यापारको परिमाण १ अर्व ९७ करोड ७० लाख अमेरिकी डलर पुगेको थियो ; नेपालबाट चीनमा भएको निर्यात एक वर्ष पहिलेको सोही समयावधिको भन्दा ६३% ले अभिवृद्धि भएको थियो । चीनले नेपालबाट हुने आयात बढाउनका लागि सक्रिय भूमिका निभाएको छ र नेपालबाट आयात हुने ९८% करयोग्य वस्तुहरुमा 'सून्य भन्सार कर' को सुविधा प्रदान गरेको छ, जसमा अहिले नेपालबाट चीनमा निर्यात हुने सम्पूर्ण वस्तुहरू पर्दछन् । ........ दुई देशबीच नेपालबाट सुन्तला, जुनार तथा पशुआहार घाँस चीनमा निर्यात गर्ने बारेको सन्धीपत्रमा हस्ताक्षर भएको छ । नेपालमा सबैभन्दा बढी आर्थिक लगानी गर्ने देश पनि चीन नै हो । माथिल्लो मर्स्याङ्दी विद्युत स्टेसन, होङ्शी सिमेन्ट, ह्वासिन सिमेन्ट आदि चिनियाँ लगानीका परियोजनाहरूबाट उत्पादन प्रारम्भ भइसके अथवा छिटै हुँदैछन् । ....... चीनले प्रत्येक वर्ष एक सयभन्दा बढी नेपाली विद्यार्थीहरूलाई सरकारी छात्रवृत्ति प्रदान गर्दै आएको छ ...... विगत ४ वर्षमा चीन र नेपालबीचको शान्ति सुरक्षा क्षेत्रको सहकार्य पनि बढेको छ । दुई देशका विशेष सेनाको टोलीले 'सगरमाथाको मैत्री' नामक संयुक्त सैन्य अभ्यास गरेका थिए । ....... बहुलवादको सही कार्यान्वयन र आर्थिक भूमण्डलीकरणको समर्थन, एकलवाद, प्रभुत्ववाद र शीतयुद्धकालीन विचार शैलीको विरोध गरी बहुसंख्यक विकासशील देशहरुको साझा हित, क्षेत्रीय एवं सम्पूर्ण विश्वको शान्तिसुरक्षा र विकासका लागि सक्रिय योगदान पुर्‍याएका छन् । ....... सन् २०२० को प्रारम्भमा विश्वमा शताब्दीकै सबैभन्दा ठूलो महामारी फैलिन गयो ...... नेपालमा पनि सोही महामारी फैलिएपछि चीनले नेपाललाई ठूलो परिमाणमा महामारी नियन्त्रणका सामग्री र करिब २ करोड ४० लाख खोपहरू प्रदान गरेको थियो । विशेष गरी नेपालमा कोभिड–१९ को दोस्रो लहर चल्दा चीनले यथाशीघ्र नेपाललाई अक्सिजन उत्पादक यन्त्र, अक्सिजन सिलिण्डर र तरल अक्सिजन आदि सामग्री सहयोगस्वरूप प्रदान गरी हिमालय वारिपारिको स्वास्थ्य करिडोरको निर्माण गरेको थियो । ....... अर्को महिना नेपालमा पनि निर्वाचन हुँदैछ ..... पहिलो पटक राजदूत बन्दा मैले मैत्रीपूर्ण सुन्दर छिमेकी देश नेपालमा आउने अवसर पाएँ, यसलाई मैले आफ्नो सौभाग्य सम्झेकी छु । ...... भक्तपुरको जुजु धौ दहीको त्यो स्वाद, सूर्यास्त बेलाको माछापुच्छ्रे हिमालको दृश्य, दसैंको बेलामा नेपाली सहकर्मीसँग रातो टीका लगाएको त्यो न्यानो क्षण, तीजका दिन नेपाली गीतसंगीतसँगै नाचिने त्यो उल्लासपूर्ण नाच आदि म कहिले पनि भुल्न सक्दिनँ ।



सांसद कमलको प्रवेश पछि धनुषा १ मा जनमत जोडदै जनमत पार्टी

Friday, December 29, 2017

कम्युनिज्म, समाजवाद र सिद्धांत को कुरो



आज कसैले पृथ्वी गोल छ भनेर ऐलान गर्छ भने उसलाई यो त कस्तो महावैज्ञानिक, पृथ्वी गोल रहेछ भनेर पत्ता लगायो भन्ने कुरा आउँदैन। मदन भंडारी द्वारा प्रतिपादित बहुदलीय जनवाद लाई कम्युनिस्ट ले बहुदल मान्यो भन्ने किसिमले हेर्न सकिन्छ तर कम्युनिस्ट ले नै बहुदलीय व्यवस्था को आविष्कार गर्यो भन्न मिल्दैन। त्यस बहुदलीय जनवाद ले बहुदलीय लोकतंत्र र मिश्रित अर्थतंत्र नै भनेको हो। तर एकदलीय व्यवस्था भएको चीन ले पनि मिश्रित अर्थतंत्र मानेको छ। चीन मा निजी क्षेत्र अमेरिका लाई टक्कर दिने किसिमको छ। मदन भंडारी को बहुदलीय जनवाद वास्तवमैं नया सिद्धांत हो भने त्यो कम्युनिस्ट देश चीन मा पनि लागु हुनुपर्छ। तर नेपालको कुनै पनि कम्युनिस्ट ले चीन सम्म त्यो सन्देश पुर्याएको मलाई थाहा छैन।

हुन त कार्ल मार्क्स ले मर्ने बेला तिर "म मार्क्सवादी होइन" भनेर ऐलान गरेका थिए। आफैले प्रतिपादित गरेको सिद्धांत नाना थरि मानिस ले विभिन्न किसिमले बांगोटिंगो अपव्याख्या गरिदिएको देखेर कार्ल मार्क्स आत्तिएका हुन। स्टालिन को तोड़मरोड़ लेनिन लाई पनि  नपचेको। पार्टी बाट यसलाई निकाल्नु पर्छ सम्म भनेका। लगत्तै देहांत भयो।

मार्क्सवाद को एउटा प्रयोग लेनिनवाद हो, अर्को स्टालिनवाद, तेस्रो माओवाद। लेनिन ले क्रांति मा भन्दा बढ़ी योगदान सिद्धांत मा दिए भन्न मिल्छ। शहर र कलकारख़ाना मा फोकस लेनिनवाद हो। चरम तानाशाही स्टालिनवाद हो। शहर होइन गाउ, कारखाना होइन खेत भनेको माओवाद ले। उद्योग उसै पनि नभएको तेस्रो विश्व का देश हरुमा माओवाद को लोभ देखिनु स्वाभाविक भन्न सकिन्छ।

लेनिन ले गरेको क्रांति को ७० वर्ष जति मा सोवियत संघ विघटन भयो। पश्चिमा देश हरुमा त्यसलाई कम्युनिज्म को पराजय को रुपमा लिने गरिन्छ। तर लेनिन को क्रांति को तीन दशक भित्र अमेरिका मा राष्ट्रपति रुज़वेल्ट ले गरीब हरु को पक्ष मा व्यापक कार्यक्रम हरु ल्याए। अहिले उत्तरी युरोप का देश हरु मा रहेको लोककल्याणकारी राज्य (welfare state) न पुरानो ढर्रा को पूँजीवादी भन्न मिल्छ न कम्युनिस्ट। तर चीन ले त्यसै लाई पनि नक्कल गर्ने जमर्को गरेको छैन।




















अमेरिका को प्राविधि (technology) क्षेत्र का ठुला ठुला इंटरप्रेन्योर (entrepreneur) थुप्रै ले post-capitalism को कुरा गर्न थालेका छन। २० औ शताब्दी को आर्थिक फ्रेमवर्क चाडै नपुग हुनेछ भन्न थालेका छन। चाडै भनेको १०० वर्ष भनेको होइन। १०-२० वर्ष भनेको। Universal Basic Income को कुरा आएको छ।

भने पछि राज्य को रुपरेखा के हुने --- त्यो बहस त ज्वलंत छह विश्वव्यापी रूप मा। त्यस बहसमा नेपालका क्रियाशील राजनीतिज्ञ हरु सामेल हुनु ख़ुशी को कुरा हो।

कम्युनिस्ट लेबल नै किन चाहियो? कम्निस्ट भने पछि हिंसा मा विश्वास गर्ने, एकदलीय व्यवस्था लादन खोज्ने जस्तो अर्थ लाग्छ। समाजवादी शब्द ले हुँदैन? एमाले र माओवादी को एकीकरण गर्ने हो भने नया पार्टी को नाम नेपाल समाजवादी पार्टी राखे हुँदैन? आखिर बहुदलीय लोकतंत्र र मिश्रित अर्थतंत्र दुबै ले मान्ने नै भनेको हो। दुबै लाई मानेर दुबै लाई बरु परिष्कृत बनाउँदै जान मिल्छ।

बहुदलीय लोकतंत्र त मान्ने तर प्रत्येक राष्ट्रिय पार्टी ले पाएको मत को समानुपातिक पैसा राज्य ले नै दिने, पार्टी चलाउन, चुनाव लडन अरु कुनै स्रोत बाट पैसा लिन नपाउने गर्न सकिन्छ।

मिश्रित अर्थतंत्र मा निजी क्षेत्र (private sector) त हुन्छ नै, साथै सरकारी क्षेत्र (public sector) र सहकारी क्षेत्र (cooperative sector) पनि हुन्छ। ती बाहेक अरु पनि हुन्छ। जस्तो कि non profit sector हुन्छ। नया केटेगरी हरु थपिएका छन। जस्तो कि social entrepreneurship . ----- कंपनी त खोल्ने तर त्यसको प्रमुख उद्देश्य मुनाफा नहुने, तर मुनाफा भने कमाउने। यी प्रत्येक सेक्टर अमेरिका मा छ। नेपालमा पनि छ। कसैले आएर नेपालमा निजी क्षेत्र, अथवा सरकारी अथवा सहकारी क्षेत्र आविष्कार गरिदिनुपर्ने अवस्था छैन। तर गुणात्मक (qualitative) र मात्रात्मक (quantitative) कुरा हरु आउँछन। Ratio को कुरा आउँछ। ९०% निजी क्षेत्र ले ओगटेको देश र ५०% मात्र निजी क्षेत्र ले ओगटेको देश दुबै मिश्रित अर्थतंत्र भएर पनि नितांत फरक देश हुन।

अर्थतंत्र को मात्र कुरा छैन। सामाजिक मुद्दा हरु छन। लैंगिक, क्षेत्रीय, जातीय, सांस्कृतिक आदि। समानता को प्रतिभुति प्रत्येक मानव सम्म पुग्नु पर्छ। संसदमा महिला को सहभागिता को सवाल मा नेपाल ले चीन, भारत, अमेरिका, बेलायत, रूस, जापान सबै लाई उछिनेको छ। त्यो सराहनीय कुरो हो। मधेसी, जनजाति, दलित लाई पनि त्यसै गरी समेट्नु पर्छ।

नेपाल को माटो सुहाउँदो भनेको त हाइड्रो समाजवाद हो। भुटान को देखासिखि १०-२० हजार मेगावाट उत्पादन गर्ने र राजा वीरेंद्र को भाषा मा सबै नेपाली को आधारभूत आवश्यकता पुरा गर्ने। १० वर्ष भित्र मधेसमा सौर्य उर्जा बाट पहाड़ मा हाइड्रो बाट भन्दा बढ़ी बिजुली उत्पादन गर्न सकिने हुन्छ। सौर्य प्रविधि को मुल्य को गिरावट त्यस किसिम को हुने प्रक्षेपण गरिँदैछ।

एमाले र माओवादी मिलेर समाजवादी पार्टी बनाउने। फोरम र राजपा त्यस पछि एकीकरण गर्नै पर्ने हुन्छ। काँग्रेस मा पनि देउबा र पौडेल को शायद एकीकरण हुँदै गर्ला।





Friday, November 03, 2017

नेपाल ले चीन र भारत दुबै सँग सिक्नुपर्छ























चीन र भारत लाई जुधाउन सक्ने, खेलाउन सक्ने शक्ति नेपाल होइन। काठमाण्डु ले आफ्नो self-importance त्याग्नुपर्छ र humility देखाउनुपर्छ। चीनसँग पनि, भारत सँग पनि सिक्नुपर्छ।  चीनको पनि, भारतको पनि सहयोग लिनुपर्छ। चीनको पनि पुँजी, भारतको पनि पुँजी तान्ने प्रयास गर्नुपर्छ। सकिन्छ भने चीन र भारत लाई जोड्ने पुल बन्नुपर्छ। चीन हिजो को भारत हो। भारत भोलि को चीन हो। दुबै विश्व शक्ति हुन। दुबै नेपाल लाई समृद्ध देख्न चाहेका शक्ति हुन।

लोकतंत्र र मानव अधिकार मा compromise हुँदैन। त्यसका अलावा समाजवाद भनेको के? कम्युनिस्ट, काँग्रेस, फोरम सबैले समाजवाद नै भन्छन। शिक्षा, स्वास्थ मा व्यापक लगानी गर। गरीब जनतासम्म रोजगारी, विकास, पूर्वाधार पुर्याउ। काम गर्न नसक्ने हरुको हेरचाह गर। कसले शिकायत गर्छ?

कुरा कुरामा भारत र चीन लाई दोष दिने, भारत र चीन लाई गाली गर्ने कुरा आफ्नो आंग को भैंसी नदेख्ने कुरा हो। Deal त गर्नुपर्छ दुबै छिमेकी सँग। कुनै पनि देशको आफ्नो self-interest हुन्छ नै। नेपालको छ। भारतको छ। चीनको छ। Deal गर्दा पर्याप्त गृहकार्य गरेर deal गर्ने, आफ्नो कार्यक्षमता प्रदर्शन गर्ने। अधिकांश त win win संभावना हरु नै बढ़ी छन।

समस्या चीन होइन। समस्या भारत होइन। समस्या प्रमुख रूपले आतंरिक हो। देशमा व्याप्त भ्रष्टाचार, गरीबी, उच्चतम राजनीतिक संस्कृति को अभाव। तर विस्तारै विस्तारै देश ट्रैक मा आउँदैछ। त्यति निराशाजनक अवस्था भने छैन। एउटा नया पीढ़ि तम्तयार देखिन्छ।

दुनिया को पहिलो र तेस्रो ठुलो अर्थतंत्र को बीचमा रहेको भौगोलिक स्थिति --- यो त नेपाल लाई चिट्ठा परेको हो।


Saturday, October 28, 2017

महेंद्र पथ भनेको चीनको एक भाषा, एक भेष, एक देश र तैं चुप मैं चुप नै होइन र?









महेंद्र पथ भनेको चीनको एक भाषा, एक भेष, एक देश (unitary state) र तैं चुप मैं चुप (no free speech) नै होइन र?


राजा महेंद्र ले चीन र भारत लाई एक अर्का विरुद्ध प्रयोग गरेका होइनन कि चीन लाई अँगालेका हुन। वाक स्वतंत्रता को समाप्ति, संगठनको स्वतंत्रता को समाप्ति, एक भाषा, एक भेष, एक देश ---- त्यो सब चिनिया मोडल हो। अझ माओ पनि राजा जस्तै थिएनन र? आजीवन शासन गरे। अहिले ओली महेंद्र पथमा हिडेको भन्नु पुर्ण सत्य भएन। अब ideology export गर्नु चीनको घोषित नीति नै भइसकेको अवस्था मा नेपाली जनता ओलीसँग सतर्क हुनुपर्छ। नेपाल चीन का लागि आकर्षक छ। भारत र अमेरिका दुबै लाई एकै पटक नीचा देखाउन मिल्ने ठाउँ।

दुई तिहाई ल्याएर संविधान संसोधन गर्छु भनेको के ओली ले? बहुदल, वाक स्वतंत्रता आदि लाई तत्काल लाई मान्नुपरे मानने पछि फाल्ने भनेको हो कि?

भन्दैमा भारत कै राजनीतिक सिस्टम राम्रो, अमेरिका को फोटोकॉपी गर्नु पर्छ भन्ने होइन। लोकतंत्र जुन जुन देशमा छ त्यस्तो प्रत्येक देशमा आफ्नै विशिस्ट किसिमको छ। उत्तरी युरोप मा रहेको लोकतंत्र लाई त औपचारिक रूप मा नै समाजवाद नै भन्ने गरिन्छ। तर त्यस्तो प्रत्येक ठाउँ मा मानव अधिकार को पुर्ण गारंटी छ। वाक स्वतंत्रता छ कि छैन भन्नेमा दुईमत छैन। विभिन्न राजनीतिक पार्टी को meaningful अस्तित्व छ।

तर चीन ले भनेको समाजवाद उत्तरी युरोप को जस्तो होइन। ओली ले भनेको समाजवाद त चीन को जस्तो पनि होइन। ओली को आइडियोलॉजी त नाङ्गो माफ़ियातंत्र र सिंडिकेट राज हो, लुटतंत्र हो, Tammany Hall हो।

बीपी कोइराला लाई लेखक, विचारक भन्न मिल्छ, तर कुशल राजनीतिज्ञ भन्न मिल्दैन। महेंद्र ले कु गर्ने कुरा महिनौं सम्म थाहा पाएर पनि sitting duck भएर बसे। नेहरू को मा कूदेर जानु पर्ने थियो। माओ र नेहरू बीच को फरक बुझ्न सक्नुपर्थ्यो। नेपालमा राजनीति गर्न त्यति geopolitics त बुझ्न सक्नुपर्छ।




Thursday, October 19, 2017

China And Nepal



Xi Jinping’s Marathon Speech: Five Takeaways
Throughout his speech, Mr. Xi described China as a “great power” or a “strong power” 26 times, a clear departure from the days when leaders in Beijing depicted their country as a poor, modest player abroad. ......... Mr. Xi also held out China as a model for the new era, saying his country had developed its economy without imitating Western values. “It offers a new option for other countries and nations who want to speed up their development while preserving their independence,” he said.


त्यो बेला चीनले वामपन्थी गठबन्धनबाट हात झिक्न सक्छः एसडी मुनी
नेपालका सबै कम्युनिस्ट पार्टीहरूलाई एकै ठाउँमा ल्याउन सकियोस् भन्ने कुरामा चीनको समर्थन रहँदै आएको छ भन्ने गरिन्छ । चीनले नेपालमा सबै कम्युनिस्ट पार्टीहरूलाई एउटै मञ्चमा ल्यायो भने बाँकी अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय शक्तिहरू भारत, अमेरिका, युरोपेली युनियनले पनि बाँकी डेमोक्रेटिक जनतान्त्रिक शक्तिहरूलाई एक ठाउँमा ल्याउन कोशिश गर्नेछन् । त्यसैले यी सम्भावनाहरूलाई पनि नकार्न भने सकिँदैन । र यो कुरा सम्भव पनि छ । तर मात्र यही कारणले ध्रुवीकरण सम्भव भएको हो, बाहिरको कारणले मात्रै यति कुराहरू भइरहेको छ भनेर सोच्नु पनि सही हुने छैन । ...... पूरै दक्षिण एसियामा नै भारत र चीनबीच प्रतिस्पर्धा भइरहेको छ । खास गरी यस्ता किसिमको ठूलो राजनीतिक समीकरणहरूमा त प्रतिस्पर्धा प्रस्ट रूपले देखिन्छ । त्यो चाहे श्रीलंकामा हेर्नुस्, बंगलादेश, माल्दिभ्स जहाँ पनि हेर्नुस्, प्रतिस्पर्धा तपाईंले हेर्न सक्नुहुन्छ । ..... सन् १९६२ मा राजा महेन्द्रले जननिर्वाचित प्रधामन्त्री बीपी कोइरालालाई हटाएका बेलामा पनि चीनले राजतन्त्रलाई नै समर्थन गरेको थियो भने भारतले लोकतान्त्रिक शक्तिलाई । यस्तो किसिमको ध्रुवीकरणमा बाहिरका मानिसहरूलाई खास रुचि रहने गर्छ । त्यसमा पनि खास गरेर नेपाल जस्तो सामरिक महत्त्व बोकेको देशमा त रुचि रहन्छ नै । ...... नेपालमा जस्तोसुकै ध्रुवीकरण नै किन नहोस्, नेपालमा जुनसुकै सरकार पनि बनोस्, त्यो सरकारले न त चीनलाई र न त भारतलाई नै बेवास्ता गर्न सक्छ । ...... चीनलाई आफ्नो अनुकूल अवसर आउँदा माओवादीको विरुद्धमा राजतन्त्रलाई सहयोग गरेको छ अनि त्यसैगरी नेपाली कांग्रेसको विरुद्धमा एमालेलाई समर्थन गरेको छ । माओवादीको विरुद्ध एमालेलाई सहयोग गरेको पनि छ । जब उसलाई आफ्नो आवश्यकताका लागि माओवादीको आवश्यकता प–यो, माओवादीलाई पनि उसले सहयोग गरेको छ । तर भारतको कुरा गर्नुहुन्छ भने जनतासँग निहित रहेका शक्तिहरूलाई मात्र समर्थन गर्ने गरेको छ । ..... वामपन्थीहरूको भोलि सरकार बनेन र डेमोक्रेटिकहरूकै फेरि पनि सरकार बन्यो भने चीन फेरि डेमोक्रेटिककै पक्षमा उभिन्छ । चीनलाई दक्षिण एसियामै आफ्नो प्रभावलाई बढाउनुछ । त्यसैले नेपालमा जुनसुकै सत्ता रहोस्, त्यसै समीकरणका पछाडि चीन आउने गर्छ । .... अहिले जे समीकरण बनेको छ, त्यो माथिबाट मात्र सामरिक दृष्टिकोणले समीकरण बनेको छ तर तलसम्म आउनमा अहिले पनि धेरै नै समय लाग्नेछ । ..... एकआपसमा विरोधाभास राजनीतिक स्वार्थ भएका दलहरू एकाएक रातोरात एकताबद्ध भइहाल्छन् र धेरै ठूलो शक्ति भएर अगाडि आइहाल्छन् भन्ने कुरामा मलाई पटक्कै विश्वास छैन । .... मेरो विचारमा कुनै पनि ध्रुवीकरणतर्फ ठूलो बहुमत आइरहेको छैन । ..... भारत अहिले पनि नेपाललाई त्यस्तो संविधान बनाउनुस् जसमा सबैलाई साथ लिएर हिँड्न सकियोस् भन्छ । अहिले पनि मधेसी, जनजाति र दलित समुदायका जे माग छन् त्यो पूरा भएको छैन । तिनीहरूले अहिले पनि त्यो माग उठाइरहेका छन् । संविधान संशोधनका मुद्दा अहिले पनि संसद्समक्ष रहेकै छ । अहिले जुनसुकै समीकरण बनेपनि प्रश्न त हल भइसकेको छैन नि ! ..... भारतले नेपाल शान्त रहोस्, प्रगति गरोस् र सामरिक दृष्टिकोणले यस्तो कुनै काम नगरोस् जसले भारतको सुरक्षामा खतरा होस् भन्ने चाहन्छ । ..... चीनको स्वार्थ मात्र नेपालमा छैन, पूरै दक्षिण एसियामा छ । त्यसको लागि फेरि अर्को दिन कुरा गरौंला । नेपालभन्दा दशौैं गुणा बढ़ी उसको पाकिस्तानमा रुचि छ । अफगानिस्तानमा छ । तपाईं त्यसको इन्ट्रेस्ट नेपालमा मात्रै छ भनेर सोच्नु हुन्छ भने त्यो गलत हुनेछ । ऊ पूरा दक्षिण एसियामा आफ्नो प्रभाव बढाउन चाहन्छ । दक्षिण एसियामै ऊ आफ्नो आर्थिक र सामरिक जरा गाड्न चाहन्छ ।

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Vibrant Federalism In Nepal Is Also About Tibet

English: The Fourth Dalai Lama, Yonten Gyatso
English: The Fourth Dalai Lama, Yonten Gyatso (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
English: The Tenth Dalai Lama, Tsultrim Gyatso
English: The Tenth Dalai Lama, Tsultrim Gyatso (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
English: Potala Palace, Lhasa, Tibet
English: Potala Palace, Lhasa, Tibet (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Vibrant federalism in Nepal is not just about Nepal, it is also about Tibet. Tibet has been an integral part of South Asia for as long as anyone can remember. And China's efforts to link Lhasa to Lumbini and Lhasa to Sikkim by railway is commendable.

Noone is arguing for Tibet as a separate country. But there can be no compromise on human rights, there can be no compromise on religious freedom. Tibetans deserve democracy just as much as anyone else.

The Chinese Communist Party has lifted more people out of poverty than any other political party in the history of humanity, and there are lessons there for India, for Africa and other parts of the world. And I don't see the political system in America as all good, and the political system in China as all bad. The democracy in America itself is a work in progress, always will be. I like to say America can learn campaign finance reform from China. But then China can also learn political pluralism from America. China can learn free speech.

I look forward to a day when Taiwan is truly integrated into China, in a China that is a democracy like Taiwan, and where Taiwan and Tibet are states inside a federal China like Gujrat and Arunachal Pradesh are states in India.

Madhesh is where the Buddha was born. And Tibet is where his teachings flourished like no place else. So the Madhesh feels strongly about the plight of Tibetans and their right to religious freedom. And, yes, the Dalai Lama has a right to visit Tibet. China should spot demonizing the Dalai Lama who is a delightful presence on this planet.

I want China to do well. I would like to see China go back to double digit growth rates. It is my determination that now the only way China can go back to double digit growth rates is if it engages in fundamental political reform. You can not give birth to the industries of tomorrow if you do not celebrate free speech, pure and simple. A China that has polluted itself beyond recognition should seek to take the lead on clean energy industries. I hope it does that. So it is not like I don't want the best for China. I do. But China for too long has thought it can ill treat Tibetans and get away with it. That can not stand.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

काठमाण्डु कुँवाका भ्यागुताहरु

English: Taj Mahal, Agra, India, south face. F...
English: Taj Mahal, Agra, India, south face. Français : Le Taj Mahal, à Âgrâ, en Inde, vu du sud. Italiano: Taj Mahal, Agra, India, lato sud. हिन्दी: ताज महल, आगरा, भारत। (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
एउटा थियो आदि कवि भानुभक्तको कुँवा -- त्यो काम लाग्ने किसिमको कुँवा थियो। एउटा छ काठमाण्डु कुँवा। देशको अहित गर्ने प्रपञ्चहरु सबै यसै कुँवामा हुने गर्छन। काठमाण्डु कुँवाका भ्यागुताहरु भनठानछन बेइजिंग र दिल्लीका मानिसहरु दिन रात नेपाल बारे plotting गर्दै बस्छन्। यथार्थ हो दुनिया हाँक्नु पर्ने बेइजिंग र दिल्लीका मानिसहरुसँग नेपालकालागि खासै समय छैन।

चीन र भारत बीच दुश्मनी छैन। चीनले चेन्नई देखि दिल्ली सम्म बुलेट ट्रेन बनाउन लागेको छ। दुई देशबीच दुश्मनी भएको भए चीनले त्यस्तो कदम चालने बारे किन सोंचथ्यो? तर काठमाण्डु कुँवाका भ्यागुताहरुलाई लाग्छ चीन र भारत बीच दुश्मनी छ, दुबैलाई जुधायेर फाइदा लिउँ। मुसा र हात्तीको कहानी जस्तो। कहीं नभएको जात्रा हाँडी गाउँमा। 

चीन नरेन्द्र मोदीलाई अलि अलि होइन, असाध्यै मन पराउँछ --- किनभने चीनलाई बिजनेस व्यापार गर्नु छ। मोदीलाई सकेसम्म चाँडै चीन भ्रमणमा आउ भनेर भनेको भनै छ। त्यस्तो मोदीलाई अपमान गरेको वामदेवले। त्यो आफ्नो माफिया लिंकहरु ढाकछोप गर्नलाई हो। 

चीन र भारत दुवैले नेपालमा चाहेको कुरा एउटै हो ---- लोकतंत्र, राजनीतिक स्थायित्व र आर्थिक प्रगति। तर नेपालको निवर्तमान पोलिटिकल क्लास यी तीन कुराको दुश्मन भएर खड़ा रहेको छ। निकम्मापन र भ्रष्टाचारले गर्दा। भारत विरोध र मधेसी विरुद्ध को पूर्वाग्रह आफ्नो निकम्मापन र भ्रष्टाचारप्रति जनताको ध्यान नजाओस भन्न खातिर प्रयोग हुने distractionary tactics हुन -- आम जनताले जति चाँडो बुझन सक्यो त्यति राम्रो।




Tuesday, December 02, 2014

China And SAARC

English: The Seventh Dalai Lama, Tsangyang Gyatso
English: The Seventh Dalai Lama, Tsangyang Gyatso (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Xi Jinping 习近平
Xi Jinping 习近平 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
SAARC is an organization of democracies. China can join SAARC once it has become a democracy.

China has had an impressive economic track record from 1990 to 2010. But the days of double digit growth rates are over. Xi Jinping is a good guy, but if he wants to take his country back to double digit growth rates his one option is bold political reforms leading all the way to plurality. And the best way to make those moves might be from the very top.

Yes, it is about Tibet. Tibet is an integral part of South Asia. It is by way of Tibet that China has any currency in South Asia. The ties go back thousands of years. Buddha was born in Nepal but it is in Tibet that Buddhism has its deepest roots. Those bonds are strong. A Lhasa to Lumbini railway track would symbolize that.

No one wants to go back to the way things were. The Dalai Lama himself does not. The idea of the same person being head of state and head of religion are outdated. Tibet wants and deserves its prosperity. Tibetans don't want a separate country. But their religious freedom will not be denied forever. Their human rights are as sacrosanct as that of anyone else.

And to that end many options are available. If a larger global alliance of democracies - America, India, Japan - will have to be forged, so be it. And that would be sad. Because this is not a geopolitical struggle to put China down. China is a proud country with a proud heritage. About 800 years ago China was the leading country on the planet, and it might still become that. And China has a lot to teach. China could teach campaign finance reform to America and India. That is there. China has lifted more people out of poverty than any other power. That is exemplary and India should learn. When the 2008 recession hit, if it were not for the strength of the Chinese economy, the world might have gone into a deep Depression.

The Chinese are a proud people and they deserve their rightful place under the sun. They have so much to give, they have so much to teach. I would like to see a day when you can get on the train in any part of the world and end up in Beijing. Why not? The sound finances of the Chinese government might help fund much needed infrastructure projects all across the world.

But there is no fighting the inevitable. China owes itself bold political reforms. I want Taiwan to be part of China, but that will not happen unless China steers itself to political pluralism.

Obama, Modi, And The Sling Shot Effect
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