Saturday, September 16, 2006

Nepal In 2006 Is Not Russia In 1917


There are numerous differences between Nepal in 2006 and Russia in 1917. The Nepali Maoists are dogmatic nobodies and not communits if they can not appreciate the fundamental differences. Communism is supposed to be scientific. Facts have to be brought into play. You can not let the ideology drown out the facts.

1917 Was Before The Social Welfare State, Before Fascism, Nazism

The world has seen the horrors of totalitarian states. The world will not stand by. The Nepali people will not stand by. A lot of water has gone down the Bagmati since 1917. The global per capita income has gone up dramatically. The global population has grown dramatically. The world has witnessed 1917 taken to its logical conclusion. Lenin's experiment failed in the form of the collapsed Soviet empire.

After Franklin Roosevelt came to power in 1933, he introduced massive social welfare programs in the US that would be an envy to the communist idealists. Lenin was not around to witness all that. Capitalism responded to the communist criticism. The result was the welfare state. There was this acknowledgement that the market works much of the time, but not all the time, and when it does not work, the state has to step in.

Lenin himself acknowledged the role of the market in his New Economic Policy. He realized the importance of private ownership and the profit incentive soon after coming into power.

Russia Was At War

Russia was involved in World War I in a major way. Nepal is not involved in war. Russia got engulfed in civil war soon enough. There is no civil war in Nepal. There is a ceasefire in place. Lenin made a concerted effort to get the Russian soldiers to desert the regime and come along with him. The Nepal Army has not been penetrated like that.

This lull in the storm in Nepal makes a lot of difference. When the country is at war, especially at world war, the water is murky. It is easier for rebel armies to fish in murky waters.

Russia Is A Big Country

It is the biggest country in terms of geography. It could stand isolation if it had to. If the Nepali Maoists were to come to power - a big if - by waging an armed revolt - another big if - they would face total isolation, from India, from China, from Europe, from America.

Russia Did Not Have A Strong Democratic Base

The country went from Tsarism to communism. In Nepal you have more than seven mass based parties that are entrenched in the country's life. The people on the ground do have options. If push comes to shove, they will come out into the streets all over again. A people that did not put with a ruthless, royal dictatorship is not going to put with Maoist dictatorship.

No To Royal Dictatorship, No To Maoist Dictatorship

A Military Stalemate Is The Best The Maoists Can Hope For

The Nepal Army is intact. Major foreign aid would flow to the Nepal Army should the seven party alliance decide to go for the war option with the Maoists. I don't think the Nepal Army is in a position to crush the Maoists militarily, no matter how much foreign arms aid flows in, primarily because the Maoists are a political party that happens to have an army, they are not just an army. On the other hand, I don't think the Maoists are in a position to take over militarily. The Nepal Army is capable of holding ground. In Russia that was not the case. The state army's loyalty did not securely rest with Lenin's enemies.

By Their Own Admission

The Nepali Maoists have committed themselves to multi-party democracy, human rights, and rule of law. The Universal Declaration Of Human Rights did not exist in 1917. The UN did not. Lenin never thought in terms of a multi-party framework.

A democratic republic is a revolutionary enough goal in Nepal's context. The Nepali Maoists have been taking the lead on that one, sure. They get credit.

New Thinking Needed

Nepal Communist Party (Progressive)

This is 2006. This is not 1917. The April Revolution has given both the Maoists and the seven party alliance a unique opportunity to design a democracy that does not exist anywhere else on the planet.
  1. Transparent party finances.
  2. State funded parties.
The idea of a multi-party framework in which the political parties are state funded, now that is revolutionary. That is what the Maoists should shoot for.

In that new framework, many wonderful things are possible, like land reform, plentiful education and health. But all that has to happen through rule of law. You contest elections. You win by yourself or a coalition, you form a government. You pass bills to the effect. And you go out and do implement.

Power flows through the ballot box.

Nepal is one state. It will have one army. It could end up having no army. It will have one police, or at least one federal police. One tax collection agency. It is entirely possible some Maoist could get elected president and end up Commander In Chief of that single army.

Political Synthesis Nepali Style

Also, Lenin talked against imperialism. Nepal could talk in terms of reorgnizing the United Nations so as to establish rule of law between nations.

Reorganized UN, Proposed Constitution, Methods

Many good things are possible. But not through the barrel of a gun. The new buzzword is non-violent militancy. Words are your bullets.

Parallel Governments Of Maoists And Moriarty
Conflict Study Center
Baburam Bhattarai On The Impending Peace Talks
Girija Prachanda Brinkmanship
No To Royal Dictatorship, No To Maoist Dictatorship
Arguing With The Maoists
Need To Revive The 12 Point Agreement Spirit
The Maoists Have A Right To Peaceful Assembly, Peacefully Protest

In The News

Summit meeting likely this week, says Sitaula NepalNews no date had yet been fixed but “let’s hope” that they would take place this week. .... mounting pressure from the Maoists, civil society groups as well as the allies of the SPA for early summit talks to settle the political issues.
Probe commission will soon interrogate King: Rayamajhi
Moriarty reiterates stance on disarming Maoists
Guardians of missing kids warn of stir against Maoists
Govt. proposes army to be out from business; Army Welfare fund has Rs 12 billion prohibition the army to spend the Welfare Fund on business ventures, but agreed to let it deal in stock market with the amount. ...... for the first time the army revealed that its Welfare Fund has over Rs 10.29 billion, the annual interest on which works out to be Rs 720 million ...... The Welfare Fund, raised by 12 per cent contribution of the soldiers serving in the UN peacekeeping missions, came into existence in 1975. ...... being utilised in operating schools, training troops going to UN peacekeeping missions, providing health services to the soldiers’ families, providing economic assistance to the soldiers and constructing soldiers’ family quarters. ..... bringing the army under the ambit of the CIAA, introducing a provision for moving the civil courts against the verdict of military court, and fixing the tenure and age limit for the officers
Far left, far right - By Alok Bohara
Six government attorneys file petition challenging the appointment of Judges
Congress unification process will start soon: Deuba

Indonesia reaches out to Nepal over Security Council seat People's Daily Online, China
State-run media to be privatized in Nepal suggested People's Daily Online, China privatize the state-run Gorkhapatra daily and to operate the state-run broadcasting services as public service broadcasting services. .... The commission suggested to categorize government advertisements into three groups -- commercial, public information and public interest -- and provide the latter two groups of advertisements to all media houses in a proportional manner. .... advised that the government media agencies employ at least 33 percent women in their workforce. ...... After receiving the commission's report, Koirala ordered the Minister of State for Information and Communications Dilendra Prasad Badu to implement the recommendations.
Nepal: Media Commission Submits Report OhmyNews International
Commission recommends 49% foreign investment in Nepal media Zee News
Nepal UN chief says government control in countryside eroding Raw Story, MA
Nepal army to be barred from business ventures DailyIndia.com, NY
Nepal government's control in countryside eroding: UN Telugu Portal, India
Nepal mulls 49 percent FDI in media Telugu Portal, India
New Nepal Gov't Resumes Rounding Up Gays 365Gay.com

Rayamajhi dissatisfied with govt, says commission would strongly recommend for action against guilty Kantipur Publications the government has helped protect those who were in the commission's suspect list. ....... "I am not satisfied with the government's modus operandi, especially when it is encouraging the suspects by promoting, transferring and appointing them to better places." ...... now it was the king's turn to record his statement and added that there was no need to extend the commission's term to do so. ..... there lies no obstacle for the commission to question the king for his role in suppressing the April uprising as the then chairman of the council of ministers. ...... the commission would not take any action against anyone but would not be intimidated to recommend even if the king was found guilty.
Hetauda Cement Factory resumes operations
Maoists beat up dairy entrepreneurs
FNCCI warns of protests if Maoist extortions continue
US expresses concern over breach of ceasefire code of conduct
Nepali student in US pleads guilty in fellow student’s death
Oli meets with presidential advisor for Cyprus
Maoists abduct, kill teenager
Locals protest against Maoist atrocities LAHAN, Sept 16 - Locals of Dhangadhi VDC of Siraha district disrupted traffic on Dhangadhi stretch of the Mahendra Highway for more than five hours on Saturday morning protesting against yesterday’s Maoist cadres' assault. .... The locals also called for a market shut down today. .... The Maoist cadres had beaten a local trader Karna Shrestha of Dhangadhi VDC-2 Friday night at around 9. Shrestha received severe injuries on his head ..... a group of 4-5 Maoist cadres took him under control last night and injured him with some sharp weapons. ..... a meeting is scheduled to be held later today between the Maoists and market management committee members to resolve the issue. ......
'Summit talks will be held within next week'
Funds disappear from NT pre-paid accounts
Govt's hold further shrinking: Kahane The presence of the state is further "shrinking" due to increased Maoist influence in the countryside. ..... the rebels were also becoming more organized, blocking government activities in the countryside. ..... "It (government) was ineffective before (during the armed struggle), but it's shrinking now (after the ceasefire took effect in April)" ...... quoted some Maoist leaders as saying that though the rebels would allow development activities of "the United Nations and other bilateral donors, but no government activities". ...... "What we see is the absence of effective presence of government institutions in the countryside." ..... "It's a confused situation, and in a confused situation, it's the most organized - it's the best organized- group that usually comes out ahead" .......

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

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-nepali babu

Anonymous said...

The only best communist/maoist is the dead one. Long live the monarchy!