Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Middle Ground: PR Election Now, Republic Later


I believe that could be the meeting point between the Maoists and the seven parties. The only party among even the seven parties that is opposed to the idea of a fully PR election is the not-yet-unified Nepali Congress. Otherwise the UML was the original author of the idea.

Announcing a PR election will make it easier to hold the November 22 election. Right now, we don't even know how the 240 constituencies have been delineated.

You end up with the entire country as one constituency, you end up with only one ballot paper. You probably end up with a smaller constituent assembly. 500 is too big. It should be more like 200 or 300.

I say, announce there will be a fully PR election on November 22 for a total of 300 seats. Every third person on a party's list must be female. Other than that there will be no rules. Give some more time to register new parties like the Federal Democratic National Forum. After the elections were postponed from summer to November, no new parties have been registered, and that is not okay.

On their part, the Maoists should be willing to agree to declaring the country a republic on the first session of the first session of the constituent assembly.

I hope the seven parties in power do not wait for the Maoist movement to go on for a few weeks before they finally do accede to the demand for a fully PR election. Why not do it right away? That way elections will still be held in November.

If the seven parties wait until the Maoist movement gains momentum, they will be forced to accede to both the demands. But right now they could give in to one and not give in on another.

Personally speaking I have had it with the monarchy. I am not opposed to the idea of declaring republic right away. Republic was the agenda of the April Revolution. The people spoke back in April 2006.

The political paralysis stems from one person, a Prime Minister who stays bed-ridden most of the time and who is ultra conservative. He is always the last one to sign on to something progressive for the country. He is not a leader. He is the constitutional monarch that succeeded Gyane.

It is not Girija's style to defend his position. He will simply state it and stick by it, come high or hell water. That has routinely led to paralysis.

It is curious that the Pahadi Maoists and the Madhesi Maoists are suddenly finding common ground. Both of them are headed to disrupting the November polls not because they want to but because they feel it will not be fair.

New Prime Minister

If it ends up that elections are not held in November. If it ends up that all political actors collectively decide to shift the elections to April, then Girija must be kicked out. Girija has refused to perform politically, he has refused to make the political moves that would have made it possible to hold elections back in summer, and now in November. He seems to think he has a foolproof formula. The more you postpone the elections, the longer he gets to be Prime Minister. Why would he want elections that will likely kick him out of Baluwatar because his party might have had its base seriously eroded?

Madhav Nepal could be a decent choice to replace Girija.

I have been surprised the two big communist parties have not been able to seek common ground. They must know that in a few years it is going to be the Nepali Congress that will be their primary opponent on land reform issues.

Respectful Dialogue With The Madhesi Maoists

The Pahadi parties would rather have violent elections. Holding respectful dialogue with Jwala and Goit is essential to the idea of ending up with a Nepal Army that has a fair ethnic composition as far as the Madhesi are concerned. Right now you are looking at a Nepal Army that will be largely a Pahadi Army upon integration.

Taking Responsibility

Girija has to take responsibility for the fact that political paralysis leads to lawlessness and statelessness. People suffer. He should have resigned in summer when he was not able to hold elections.

Statelessness gives rise to Pahadi Madhesi riots, Hindu Muslim riots.

Maoists Are Playing With Fire

At some level, they want to create a pro-Maoist wave in the country. They want to take sole credit when the country finally becomes a republic.

The Kapilvastu incident is highly alarming? Who killed Mohit Khan? Was the Maoist high command involved? Such killing and counter killings can spiral into uncharted territory. Nepal gets pushed closer to being a failed state.

The Madhesi MPs And The Idea Of A New Party
Not UML-Maoist Unification Or Unity, But A One Point Agreement On PR Election
Baburam Bhattarai Is Right About UML-Maoist Unity
एक मात्र िमलनिवन्दु: पुर्ण समानुपाितक िनर्वाचन
Best Possible Scenario: How It Could Unfold
The Maoist Confusion Is Unnecessary
Madhav Nepal Needs To Make A Move
I Agree With Prachanda On Republic And Proportional Election

In The News

Maoists quit govt; announce protest movement NepalNews the Maoists have announced nationwide protest movement from Tuesday. .... Now we will declare republic from the streets. ...... the code of ethics and election schedule by the Election Commission was no longer acceptable to them .... carrying out 'funeral procession of monarchy' throughout the country on September 18. ..... door-to-door public awareness campaign between September 19 and 21. From September 22 till 29, they will intensify rallies and campaigns. And between September 29 and October 3, the Maoists have stated that they will 'expose' the corrupt people and those named as guilty in the report by Rayamajhi Commission. On September 30, the Maoists have vowed to gherao all the District Administration Offices across the country. They have also announced general strike from October 4 till 6. This strike coincides with EC's schedule whereby nominations of candidates will have to be filed on October 5. ........ People's Liberation Army will remain in cantonments.
Congress, UML leaders still hope to keep alive eight-party unity Girija Prasad Koirala, who is bedridden due to health problems.
UNMIN urges parties to find a way out of current stalemate UNMIN remains deeply concerned by continued violence in the Terai, and appeals for calm and tolerance across the diverse communities in the region.
British minister disappointed with Maoist move
Taulihawa limps back to normalcy; death toll reaches four displaced people are taking asylum in police posts and army barracks while some houses in the city continue to burn. The administration has not been able to put out the fire that burnt more than 300 houses, dozens of shops and some factories. ..... The riots in Kapilvastu and Rupandehi had erupted after the killing of Abdul Mohit Khan.
EC hints fully proportional system is not possible; code of conduct comes into effect Proportional representation system is one the major demands of the Maoists and ethnic groups. Interim constitution will be at risk if Maoists quit, says Poudel Poudel, however, said that the government will proceed with the election plan even if the Maoists quit the government.
Three armed Maoist cadres arrested at Nepalgunj Airport
Indian businessman shot dead in Birgunj
Eight Terai districts classified as 'highly sensitive' Eight districts have been listed as “highly sensitive” and 13 districts as “sensitive” areas ..... Bara, Parsa, Rautahat, Mahottari, Dhanusha, Sarlahi, Siraha and Saptari have been put in “highly sensitive” category while Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Makwanpur, Chitwan, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilbastu, Dang, Banke, Bardiya, Kailali and Kanchanpur districts have been listed as “sensitive” districts. ..... 28 policemen would be deployed in each and every voting center of highly sensitive districts. ... The “on contract” policemen would constitute 80 percent of the policemen deployed for election security. ...... an outer ring of security personnel that includes mobile force, striking force, reserve force and helicopter patrolling. The “on contract” police would be given Rs 10,000 as a one month salary. The families dependent on policemen who get killed while providing election security would be given Rs 1,000,000 in compensation.
Gorkhapatra goes multilingual articles in Maithili, Magar, Tamang, Tamang Sangyur, Newari and Rai languages. Except in Maithili, articles in other languages focused on constituent assembly polls and federalism. In Maithili, a popular teraian satirist Dhirendra Premarshi wrote about right to education in mother tongue ...... at least one or two pages of news, news analysis, opinion and political analysis will be published in multiple languages everyday and that all such items will be in favour of democratic republic. ..... Gorkhapatra has become the first newspaper in the country to be published in multiple languages.
Maoists would be blamed if peace process gets derailed: MK Nepal Nepal also said that he advised the Maoists to instead engage in election preparation.

FLNF obstructs Damak-Birtamod road Kantipur Federal Limbuwan National Front (FLNF)
Prolonged transition spawning armed groups At least 21 disgruntled groups have so far taken up arms or claim to have done so to unleash violence, after the CPN (Maoist) formally laid down their arms November last. ...... the number of such outfits could shoot up should the transition period get protracted further ..... such groups are already mushrooming at an alarming rate. ... Altogether nine armed groups were reportedly in operation in various parts of the country as of last May. In the less than four months since, at least 12 other armed groups have emerged. ...... the three armed groups--Tarai Army, Tarai Utthan Sangh and Nepal People's Army--that claimed responsibility through media for multiple bomb blasts in the capital city on September 2 had not come to the notice of security personnel. ...... police now believe that Mainali was the lone person in the Defense Army. It is no more in existence. .... the activities of the Terai Cobra have also ceased completely after the arrest of its chief, Nagraj. ..... most of the armed groups are active in the terai ...... Besides the Jantantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) factions led by Jwala Singh, Goit, Bisphot Singh and Himmat Singh,10 other groups are carrying out violent activities in the southern plains. According to Nepal Police Headquarters, these groups include the Liberation Tigers of Tarai Elam (Ram Lochan Singh), Tarai Cobras, Madhesi Mukti Tigers, Tarai Bagi, Janawadi Ganatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha, Madhesi Virus Killers' Party, Shantika Lagi Kranti Tarai, Madhesi Special Force, Tarai Army and Tarai Utthan Sangh. ....... Nepal Janatantrik Party, Rastriya Army Nepal, Supa Kranti Dal, Shahi Mukti Morcha, Gorkha Mukti Morcha and Nepal People's Army are reported to have announced through pamphlets an intensification of their violence in other parts of the country besides the tarai.
Curfew re-imposed in Butwal with fresh backlash in Kapilvastu Armed with domestic weapons, they have vandalized and torched Lumbini Cotton Factory, a few petrol pumps and around a dozen houses at Chandrauta ...... Some of the passengers and drivers, who were missing following the unprecedented violence in Kapilvastu Sunday, are yet to come into contact. ..... nearly two hundred vehicles plying on the highway were vandalized during Sunday's violence in Kapilvastu. ..... At least 85 vehicles were torched in Chandrauta in the district alone. ..... At least 150 people were injured during the violence ..... Hundreds of locals of Chandrauta and Krishnanagar, who had taken refuge in the nearby forests after the incident, came in contact today ...... Many have been left without homes and money .... Mohit Khan, the vice-chairman of Democratic Madhesi Front, erstwhile chairman of an anti-Maoist group and a district committee member of Nepali Congress ....... angry protestors vandalized and torched scores of houses and vehicles in Chandrauta, Krishnanagar and the district headquarters Taulihawa ..... Over 123 houses in Devinagar were also torched by the protestors. The angry demonstrators also torched a police van heading toward Birpur to take stock of the situation. ...... The protestors had set fire to at least over two dozen government offices, a Maoist liaison office, scores of vehicles and dozens of houses in Taulihawa, and many vehicles in other villages in Kapilvastu on Sunday. ........ The mob had also stormed into the Siddhartha Finance at Krishnanagar and made off with over three million rupees ....... In retaliation for the violence in Kapilvastu, some irate protestors in Butwal vandalized two mosques there on Sunday. Taking advantage of the situation, looters also broke into various houses and institutions and looted cash, jeweleries and food.
6 injured as cops, MPRF cadres clash in Nepalgunj The police had intervened to clear the road in front of the District Administration Office, which was blocked by MPRF activists demanding the release of the arrested ones on charge of killing a Maoist activist. The agitating group, including children aged between 10 and 12, tried to forcefully shut down the shops. They also shouted slogans in front of the Administration office against the police. The town remained tense.
NSP-A factions clash over party headquarters A skirmish ensued between factions of Nepal Sadbhawana Party- Anandidevi (NSP-A) led by party chairman Anandi Devi Singh and dissident leader Minister for Industry Commerce and Supplies Rajendra Mahato after both sides tried to take control of the party’s central office in Baneshwar in Kathmandu Monday afternoon. The NSP-A group loyal to Minister Mahato-- who was elected the party chairman through just concluded special convention held in Birgunj without the consent of the establishment-- went to occupy the party office, claiming that the general convention was legitimate. ..... Security persons have been deployed at the Party office since early morning to avert any untoward incident. Police also recovered a pistol and dozens of rods from the office building. After the tension rose, the house owner has asked the NSP-A leaders to vacate the office building immediately.
NC, UML leaders surprised by Maoist move; 8-party meeting on Wednesday
Maoists announce protest programmes to thwart CA polls
Baluwatar talks fail; Maoists quit govt
Maoist stage demonstrations; PLA stage protests outside cantonments
Prachanda not to attend Maoist protest assembly due to his health condition .... Prachanda was recently diagnosed with spondylitis and high blood pressure.

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