Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Madhav Nepal Would Be A Great Choice



Madhav Nepal Needs To Make A Move (2007)
Prachanda, Madhav, Devendra (2006)
Madhav Nepal (2006)
Madhav Nepal Out In Open (2006)
Interim President: Madhav Nepal (2006)
Phone Talk With Madhav Nepal, Hridayesh Tripathy (2005)
Maoist, Moriarty, Madhav, Manmohan: Get Behind The 3 Point Program (2005)
Madhav Nepal, Commander Of The Movement (2005)
Email From Madhav Kumar Nepal (2005)

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, NepalImage via Wikipedia

Madhav Nepal Would Be A Great Choice

In The News

Dahal dubs videotape scandal a ploy against peace process; claims Maoist military strength to be much higher NepalNews
'UML set to pick Nepal as coalition leader' CPN (UML) is set to choose Madhav Kumar Nepal as the leader of the next coalition that will form the government ...... "Madhav Kumar Nepal has the ability to bring together different parties. UML is going to pick him unanimously [as the leader of the next coalition]," said Bidhya Devi Bhandari, UML vice-chairperson. She added that two UML leaders - chairman Jhala Nath Khanal and K.P Sharma Oli - are eligible for the post of Prime Minister. ......... a government of national consensus would be formed under the UML's leadership. ....... Unified CPN (Maoist), is showing undemocratic behavior by obstructing the parliament.
Madheshi parties call for consensus govt A joint meeting of Madheshi Janadhikar Forum, Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party organised at Singha Durbar, Wednesday decided to stand by a government of national consensus that could address the needs of the people of Madhesh. ..... The parties will support a party which shows commitment towards fulfilling the agreement of February 28, 2008 with the Madheshi community, MJF vice chairman JP Gupta said. ...... The meeting was organised soon after MJF chairman Upendra Yadav returned form his foreign tour.
Envoys meet PM Dahal, Khanal PM Dahal expressed his commitment to peace process and national consensus, mentioning that he resigned from his post to protect civil supremacy.
PM Dahal holds fence-mending meeting with Khanal In his first political meeting after resignation as Prime Minister, Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal met CPN (UML) chairman Jhala Nath Khanal at the latter's residence in Chhauni Wednesday morning. ..... Khanal said formation of "national consensus government" and constitution-making process were discussed ..... "I found him somewhat agitated and at the same time he expressed his disappointment." ...... Dahal told reporters after the meeting that they agreed to continue the politics of cooperation and consensus not to let the peace process derail. ..... Khanal informed journalists quoting PM Dahal that obstruction in the House would continue until the President admits his mistake and revokes the decision against government action against the army chief. Khanal said that he informed the PM about threats issued by the Maoists in various districts including Ramechhap and Kailali.
Govt formation within deadline unlikely The humiliation of having to resign from the government still afresh in their minds, Maoist leaders and cadres have started taking vengeance against their NC and UML counterparts. ...... Maoists rank and file has been pressurising the party leadership to rather stay in opposition than erode their public image by not being able to implement their policies when in the government. ..... the party will not easily accept to lead the government again even if offered, let alone joining the government under other parties. ....... The NC has agreed to form new government under the leadership of UML. However, these two parties do not have enough seats in the parliament to get a majority. They will be able to form the government only if Madheshi Janadhikar Forum and a few fringe parties support them. ....... Having understood their importance well, the MJF chairman has already put forward conditions to the UML-NC alliance. ....... MJF has covertly expressed interest to lead the future coalition. “It’s a different matter if we get (the post of) Prime Minister, otherwise we don’t need to jeopardize our vote bank by the digressing from our ideological stance,” a close confidant of MJF chairman Yadav quoted the latter as saying. .......... MJF leaders have accused Congress and UML of not having a strong vision about solutions to problems faced by people in Madhesh. The ‘ideological stance’, MJF chairman is indicating is none other than its alliance with the Maoists which the MJF thinks has a better strategy to win the hearts of people in the Terai than NC and UML. ..... The NC and UML’s unofficial proposal to make Madhav Kumar Nepal, the new Prime Minister of Nepal is not likely to materialise simply because of inadequate support on their side. Given the circumstances, MJF chairman Upendra Yadav looks like the most probable candidate to lead the government. The strongest reason behind this is the latent support of the powerful players, Yadav has behind him. ...... speculation is that Indian establishment, which has undeclared but strong influences in the formation and dissolution of governments in Nepal, is also likely to support Yadav as the future Prime Minister
House session obstructed, postponed for Sunday
India stresses on consensus to end ongoing crisis in Nepal, denies hand in toppling Maoist-led govt
Yadav stresses for consensus among political parties Chairman of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum Upendra Yadav has called for consensus and cooperation among all political parties while forming the new government to give a way out of the current turmoil. Talking to media persons upon his arrival at the Tribhuvan International Airport, Yadav said his party is not in a position to claim the leadership of new government. Yadav said his party will make efforts to build consensus among the parties, adding that his party will support whoever can gather majority to form government. MJF has called its parliamentary party meeting after Yadav’s arrival. The party is also scheduled to hold talks with other Terai based parties – Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party to bring out a common voice on Terai issues.
President Yadav's fate to be similar to Gyanendra if he doesn't rectify his move: Bhattarai He also claimed that there is less possibility of the new government being formed anytime soon because the Maoists have already intensified their street protest and struggle in the parliament against the President's move.




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Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?




Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?
Worst Case Scenarios
  • Renewed civil war.
  • Failed state.
  • Cambodia.
Bad Case Scenarios
Two Knotty Issues
Solution: Parliamentary Supremacy
  • Attempt an all party government.
  • Form an all party steering committee.
  • Hold full fledged debates/discussions in the parliament on security sector reform and land reform.
  • Pass a law to force all political parties to make their book keeping public.
  • Let the parliament shape the idea of a new army for the country. A bill passed in the parliament would decide as to the size and shape of the future army. It might end up 30,000 strong, about 20,000 from the Nepal Army, about 4,000 from the Maoist Army, and 6,000 from elsewhere. There must be criteria - physical and otherwise - that all soldiers must meet, to be professionally determined.
  • Form an all party Land Reform Commission. All property captured by the Maoists during the 10 years will go under the guardianship of that commission. It would be for a duly elected parliament next year to decide as to what to do with that property. If the Maoists want land reform, they get to shape that land reform bill to be passed by the next parliament.
Who Could Lead An All Party Government?
  • Prachanda is an option.
  • So would be someone else.
Who Would Lead The All Party Steering Committee?
  • Madhav Nepal is an option.
  • So would be someone else.
Appeasement: Not An Option
  • They tried that with Hitler. Let him have a small country, he will leave the rest of Europe alone. Appeasement does not work. That appeasement lead to World War II.
  • Appeasing Prachanda's and the Maoists' dictatorial tendencies is not an option.
  • There can be no compromise on multi-party democracy.
  • Security sector reform is an option: heck, it is desirable. Land reform is an option: heck, it is long overdue. Federalism is a must. The Maoists can have all that.
  • What they can never hope to have is a one party communist republic. There we have to draw the line. The YCL does not get to engage in use of force. (Madman Prachanda, Hindenburg Girija, Youth Communist League: Prachanda's Brown Shirts)
Reality Check
  • But we can not assume the Maoists want an all party government.
  • If all the other parties come together and prove a majority in the parliament, they are the legitimate government. That is how it works. The Maoists don't then have the option to threaten the workers of the other parties in the districts. If they do, the state has to counter them.
  • The non-Maoist parties can not engage in appeasement.
  • All you need is a majority in the parliament to have a government.
  • The Maoists have to show they can sit in the opposition also. They have work to do to show they are up for multi-party democracy and rule of law.


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Options For A New Coalition Government



It is important to form a government of all parties minus the Maoists. They need to be taught a lesson.

If the Maoists then resort to use of physical force in the streets, that physical force has to be countered by the state. It might end up being a clash between the YCL and the Armed Police Force. Hopefully the PLA and the NA stay out of it.

If necessary, Prachanda should be arrested in that scenario. (Comrade Gonzalo Of Peru: A Profile) It can not be legal for you to lead an organization that uses force. You have a right to organize, you have a right to engage in peaceful assembly. But you have no right to incite unlawful uses of force.

Democratic Options (2005)
The Hardliner Democrat Approach
The Bombing Of A Bus

If the option is between renewed civil war and Maoist anarchy, civil war is a better option. And the Maoists will have to take responsibility if there is new bloodshed.

Mistakes

The Nepal Army recruiting 3,000 new soldiers was a mistake. That step was a peace time Dhoramba. That was the feudals wanting to disturb the peace, and the Maoists played into their hands. The Supreme Court saying it was okay for the army to recruit new soldiers shows some foul play might have been involved. Were some justices bribed by the old establishment? But the Maoists don't get to mix the old establishment with the duly elected political parties, many of whose leaders are of middle class backgrounds.

Land Reform

The Maoists and the UML should be able to come up with a just land reform agenda for the country. And if the Maoists don't feel the need to at least take the UML into confidence, it is not land reform they have in mind but dictatorship. That can not be allowed.

Militarists, Maoists, Monotones, Dorambaites, Naxalites (2005)
Militarists Attempting A Doramba Repeat To End Ceasefire (2005)










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Prime Minister Upendra Yadav?







There were two victors in the April 10, 2008 elections: the Maoists, and the MJF. And the MJF is the only political party in the country with a track record of having successfully countered the Maoists.

There is no compromising the rule of law. The Maoists do not get to enage in muscle power. They do not get to engage in a rein of terror.

In The News

Video shows Dahal admitting real strength of PLA not more than 8,000; sharing plans to control army and capture state NepalNews the video which the channel claimed was from January 2, 2008 when the Maoists were an important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala led interim government ....... "We were (PLA's strength) somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000. If we had reported the correct figure of the PLA, then it would then have been reduced to around 4,000."......... "But our party's leadership decided to report PLA strength as 35,000, and thanks to it the PLA's strength is now 20,000 at least," he said smilingly, evoking peels of laughter around him.........."So our strength has actually increased. You and I know the truth, but why should we tell it to others." ...... apart from the PLA, which he said is now already a "regular army", the party has also formed YCL comprising thousands of youths despite various difficulties and "who now add to our strength". ....... The Maoist chairman also revealed that a significant share of the money that will go to "our martyrs" in villages throughout the country and the PLA in cantonments will be used by the party to prepare for revolt and ultimately capture the state. ...... "You all know that if we have enough money in our hands we can prepare a good battle plan. So, the party needs a good amount of money for the revolt," he said...... though the party may appear to have again reached a compromise (with the state and political parties), "but if you look deeply then you will know how seriously the party is preparing for the ultimate revolt". ..... Claiming that PLA combatants are "politically aware", he said even a small number of their entry into NA is enough to establish complete Maoist control over the army.
Maoists warn NC, UML cadres to leave Ramechhap, gun fires kill one in Rolpa
22 parties meeting inconclusive Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, a key component for formation of new government, was absent from the meeting and is unlikely to give its decision until party chairman Upendra Yadav returns from his foreign visit. The party also has laid claimed for the post of prime minister.
Form new government by Saturday: President
SC issues show cause order to president INHURED International filed the case seeking cancellation of the president’s move
Maoists disrupt House proceedings the new government will not be formed until president corrects his action.
Police arrest civil society activists
UNSG saddened by Nepal’s political development
NDF meeting postponed
EU expresses concern over recent political developments
Maoists to launch agitation from House and street



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Monday, May 04, 2009

Lesson For Maoists: Rule Of Law



PrachandaImage via Wikipedia

Prachanda's Procedural Flaw

The Maoist failure to oust Katuwal has not been a failure of the principle of civilian supremacy over the military.

The parliament can impeach the president, but not with one third of the vote, which is what the Maoists have. The parliament can impeach the army chief. The majority government had the option to get the parliament to pass a resolution by majority vote saying the civilian government wanted to oust the army chief. There was no effort made in that direction.

A majority government with unanimous voice could have got rid of Katuwal. But the Maoists did not have the support of any of the coalition partners. At that point the right thing to do for Prachanda was to withdraw his intent to oust Katuwal.

But even if the majority government had unanimously decided to oust Katuwal, the president, as the constitutional chief and the titular head of the army, would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration, then the cabinet would have had the option to resend it, and at that point the president would have had to pass it on to the army chief. But Prachanda not only did not seek support from his coalition partners, he did not feel the need to forward his decision letter to the president to be forwarded to the army chief. He bypassed the president. Calling him up on the phone to inform does not count.

Decision To Resign, A Good One

Prachanda decided to resign instead of possibly facing a vote of no confidence. That was a good one. His party has filed a case against the president in the Supreme Court. That shows a desire to appreciate the rule of law. But the right political move would have been to try and impeach the president. They must know they don't have the numbers. So they did not even try. And if you have already registered a case against the president with the Supreme Court, whey then plan on street protests? Let the law take its course.

Prachanda's Party Failed Prachanda

His party let him down. They put undue pressure on him. He could not resist the pressure from his party to go relentlessly after the army chief. That cost them power.

Katuwal Not The Impediment To Army Integration

Prachanda and the Maoists have falsely assumed that the army chief stands in the way of army integration. The two armies will be integrated after the six biggest parties in the parliament will agree on a formula for integration. And the other parties will not agree on the idea as long as the YCL keeps misbehaving. The YCL has the option to either disband, or become a purely political organization. They can't walk around like Hitler's Brown Shirts. Civilizing the YCL is the homework the Maoists need to do as a party if they want to make progress on the issue of army integration.

Parliamentary Supremacy

On thorny issues like land reform and army integration the best idea would be to let there be full fledged debates and discussions on the topics in the parliament. Party chiefs are too used to usurping the power of the parliament. Open parliamentary debates have to take the place of smoke filled room politics.

India?

India is not the reason all of his coalition partners deserted Prachanda. They deserted him because they kept telling him he does not have their support to oust the army chief, but he did not listen to them, so they deserted him.



Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal

In The News

Maoists to launch agitation from House and street NepalNews
President accepts PM's resignation
Prime Minister Dahal resigns slamming Prez's move
'All-party' meet on Tuesday; Khanal says UML ready to lead new govt
Govt terms prez’s move ‘unconstitutional’
President Yadav defends his move
Maoists to challenge President's move in court; declare protests in streets, parliament



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Sunday, May 03, 2009

Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal



Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, NepalImage via Wikipedia

Jhala Nath Khanal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It is now time to form a new government that would include all parties except the Maoists. Jhala Nath Khanal would be the right person to lead that government.

This is not a Katuwal issue. This is an issue of the Maoists having lost the confidence of the parliament. The Maoist government no longer has majority support. The MJF has to join forces with the UML, and the Sadbhavana. The NC has to support the new government by joining it. The TMLP has to join the new government.

Rule of law is supreme. How to integrate the two armies? Go to rule of law. How to sack or not sack the army chief? Go to rule of law.

In The News

UML, Sadhawana decide to pull out of govt; UML ministers resign NepalNews
Bhattarai claims army firmly behind govt decision; NC ramps up support for no-confidence motion against govt
President unhappy with govt's sack order to Army chief, starts consultations
OHCHR urges parties to maintain restraint
Demonstrations for and against decision to sack army chief
Govt decides to sack CoAS Katawal; Khadka acting chief; Four coalition partners oppose decision
Katawal 'turns down' sack order

Nepali Sadbhavana Party decides to quit gov't Xinhua



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Monday, April 13, 2009

Which Map Do You Like And Why?

I have listed my favorites from top to bottom. The first is my favorite. The one at the bottom is my least favorite.











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Who Are Nepal's Martyrs?



  • The martyrs of Nepal's April Revolution 2006 are martyrs.
  • The martyrs of the Madhesi Kranti I are martyrs.
  • The martyrs of the Madhesi Kranti II are martyrs.
  • The martyrs of the Tharu Kranti are martyrs.
The people who died during the decade long civil war - 13,000 to active combat, twice that many to suicide resulting from that combat and social dislocation, over a thousand disappeared - are not martyrs. They are victims of political violence.

There is a difference.

The Maoists are not the authors of the magical April Revolution. The April Revolution was an ultimate example of a nonviolent revolution. The Maoists had been pushing to make even that revolution into a violent bloodbath.

Baburam Bhattarai May Not Preach Violence To The Seven Party Alliance (January 2006)

The Maoists were never right to have engaged in violence. Violence was always wrong. There are no ifs and buts about that. Why only the country as a whole, even the Maoists only started making political progress after they took a break from violence. Their unilateral ceasefire of the fall of 2005 was when they started turning around as a political force. And they have made steady progress since.

I feel the pain of the Maoists who died during the civil war, I feel the pain of the citizens who died, I feel the pain of the Nepal Army soldiers who died during that period. But all that pain has to be processed by establishing a Truth And Reconciliation Commission. That commission might even recommend monetary compensation for many of the victims of that civil war period, but any such proposal has to be discussed and passed by the parliament, not quietly and stealthily by a cabinet.

The idea that the 7,000 Maoists who died during the civil war are martyrs is a mistake, and it is to mete out disrespect to the legitimate martyrs of the four mass movements.

The Maoists as a party are free to enact a shrine in the name of those 7,000, but they don't get to lump those 7,000 with those tens who died during the four mass movements, and especially the April Revolution.




In The News

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Friday, April 10, 2009

A Fragile Peace


ICG: Nepal's Faltering Peace Process

We ended the civil war. We ended military rule, absolute monarchy. We had elections. We have a duly elected parliament. Everything feels like is on track. But we have to watch out. Things could still go very wrong. The peace train could get derailed.

Maoist Qualms

It is possible the Maoists think they might be able to get an absolute majority after the next elections. And that hope possibly makes them more at ease with the multi-party idea. But the recent student elections were a setback for them. And it is possible they are deeply uncomfortable at the prospect of losing power after the next elections, or even before that.

The UML Smells Power

It is possible the UML wants to displace the Maoists. They could muster the numbers. This is why I am for a directly elected president. Otherwise you will have parties wanting a new government every few months, every year or two.

NC

I have a feeling the NC will face an even bigger defeat in the next elections than it did last year. The Congress people have made mistake after mistake. They got routed at the polls, but they never accepted defeat. They did not get into power but they acted like the army honchos were with them and not the parties in power. Their score on internal democracy, already bad before, is even worse now. They have absolutely no vision on federalism, or restructuring the army, or on land reform except wanting to instinctively try and fall back to the status quo.

The Army

I don't think the Nepal Army is anywhere close to thinking in terms of a coup, but the top honchos in the army have been acting obstructionist all along. An absolute monarch could not pull a coup. Katuwal stands absolutely no chance, and he knows it. They could not take over, but they could mess up, slow things down, and they have been doing it. It is as if the monarchy has ended everywhere else except in the Nepal Army. Vestiges of the old order, old ways of thinking remain.

Lawlessness In The Terai

The elections did not bring a cure. The Pahadi police force is intentionally detached from the scene. They are unhappy the Madhesi parties won so big. The Maoists have been holding the drama of holding peace talks with small outfits and not the big ones. The elected Madhesi leaders are in the safety of Kathmandu, a little too detached from the ground.

Madhesi Parties

If they can unite, or at least seek common ground on a few basic issues, they could grow some more, but how much more? Unless they acquire national character they will be regional players of the future Terai state, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

Worst Case Scenario: A Return To Civil War

I don't feel the possibility. But we can not fully count it out. What we have to remember is if there is a return to civil war, the second round will be much worse than the first round was. And the first round was bad enough. And that is why all parties concerned have to stay away from that possibility.

Dictatorship: Not An Option

I am sure there are Maoists who daydream of capturing state power the traditional Maoist way. But then there are also NC people who feel somehow we can go back to the 1990s.

Step 1: Bring The Army Under The Parliament, Completely

Trying to deal with the army through cabinet decisions has been a mistake. Instead it should be upto the parliament to hold full blown discussions as to the shape and size of the future Nepal Army.

The starting point has to be that we don't want an army that is 110,000 strong which is what you would get if you stitched the two armies together. So the Maoists can not possibly be serious with their talk of army integration. Also any Maoist who ends up in the army has to meet the physical and other criteria that might apply. You don't end up in the national army by virtue of being a Maoist.

The talk should not be of army integration, the talk has to be of downsizing the army. Maybe we will end up with a national army that is about 3,000 from the Maoist army, about 20,000 from the traditional army, and about 7,000 from elsewhere so as to ensure ethnic and gender diversity. The other 17,000 Maoist soldiers get to be retrained to be turned into health care workers. We need health, we need education. We need health care workers, and teachers, we don't really need a huge army.

Retire The Brigadier Generals

I am for retiring them. Unless you retire them, how are you going to promote new officers? The Rana-Shaha-Thapa brigade sitting atop the Nepal Army is utterly lacking in diversity. They are not the future face of Nepal. But that retirement has to be brought about by due legal process. And if the Supreme Court were to decide against the retirement decision - I hope not - then we will have to wait another day to retire them. Maybe next year. How about next year?

Land Reform

I am also for land reform. But whatever reform proposal is implemented, it has to be passed by the parliament after plentiful debate and discussion.

Step 2: Force All Parties To Make Their Book Keeping Transparent, Public

This is a must. I would like to know how much money the Maoists have.

Who Will Win The Next Elections

I could take a guess, but it is hard to tell. But one thing is pretty sure. We are destined to have a hung parliament for at least a few rounds. No party is big enough to claim a majority of its own. Even if the Maoists were to emerge the largest party after the next election, I expect them to have a smaller comparative size than what they have now. So the winner party will be the one that goes out of the way to work with other parties. And now is when you start doing that. If the Maoists exhibit bad behavior, they can expect isolation. Maybe they don't want isolation. So behave.

In The News

CA by-election conducted at six constituencies, results to be out within three hours NepalNews
PM Dahal confers with President Yadav
Reporters’ Club Chairman Rishi Dhamala freed by Appellate Court
SC issues show cause order against six Maoist leaders including PM for contempt of court
Minor clash in Dhanusha, two injured
Koirala says by-election will give new direction, bring changes in national politics
Indian aid of Rs 90 million for schools and road in 3 districts
NC cadre brutally murdered in Nuwakot
Ex Nepali king trying to restore monarchy
‘Foreign Minister Yadav has violated all diplomatic protocols’
Voting resumes after some disturbances, no violence reported
Exercise has begun for a new PM, says UML GS Pokhrel
PHSC endorses ambassador nominee for 5 countries
Government working towards establishing new industrial areas
Ambassador nominee refutes allegations of leaking information
Hetauda Cloth to get new lease of life
Biratnagar tense following clashes between Unified Maoists and Matrika Yadav led Maoists
Media associations condemn PM’s remark
DoFE launches measures for manpower agencies
Oli for replacing current govt by UML led coalition
UML to allow adjourned House to resume
Unified CPN (Maoist) expels Sujit BK from party
New commerce policy launched; export industries to be promoted
Maoist cadres assault govt lawyer for defending murder case in Surkhet
NA need not boycott games just because PLA is allowed to participate: Home Minister
PLA commanders challenge UML, NC leaders to prove cantonments as safe haven for criminals
PM Dahal says country’s media under the control of feudalists
Maoists form committee to investigate Butwal incident
House deadlock continues as guilty of Thaiba case remains at large
PM Dahal vows to take peace process to 'logical conclusion, intensifies parleys to find consensus
'UML won't quit govt early'
Koirala continues his verbal barrage against Maoists
FNCCI to build hydro projects
PM's foreign affairs advisor seeks action against ambassador nominee
'Bandh' called by left parties brings nation to a halt
Sub-committees submit report to CC
UML to change ministers after by-elections
FM embarks on a week-long visit to China; discusses bilateral issues with TAR chairman
Early start of army integration process a must for peace: Khanal
Three youths found slain in Dhanusha
Maoists trying to establish totalitarian system: Koirala
Former king holds consultations on 'baby king'
'Passport system at Nepal-India border essential to protect national interest'
Maoists, UML present their concepts on future Judiciary system







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