Attacks On Federalism Mounting

English: PM Bhattarai during a live talk show. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

An all party government would be better suited than the current government to hold elections to the constituent assembly, but that all party government has to be a political decision by the parties. That can not be an initiative by the president. 

It would make sense for that all party government to be led by the party that was the largest in the last parliament. As in, it would make great sense for Baburam Bhattarai to continue being Prime Minister. So the effort towards an all party government is merely an exercise in adding a few members of the NC and the UML to the current cabinet. I don't think the Bhattarai government is opposed to that. 

The NC and the UML misunderstand the concept of consensus. If due process had been allowed, the country today would already have had a constitution. More than two thirds of the last constituent assembly had lined up to give the country meaningful federalism. But the Bahun leaders of the NC and the UML who - let's face it - never willingly went for the idea of a constituent assembly, played roughshod with due process leading to the demise of the constituent assembly. 

To allow one of those Bahuns, be it Sushil Koirala or KP Oli, to lead an all party government at this juncture would be to reward those who need to be punished. You can't reward those who do not believe in due process. These are anti federalist forces who, given enough space, will get rid of the concept of federalism itself. 

The constitutional option is for Baburam Bhattarai to continue as Prime Minister and be open to bringing in some members of the NC and the UML into the cabinet which I believe he is. The political option is to take the country to fresh elections and before that help drive the Madhesis and Janajatis out of the NC and the UML and thus lead to an utter demise of these two anti federalist parties. 

Baburam Bhattarai proved skillful on the army integration issue. His challenge now has become bigger. If he caves into the illegal NC, UML demands for his ouster, he will have pushed the country into a constitutional vacuum out of which unintended consequences might arise. Right now some space has been taken by the anti federalism forces. A constitutional vacuum will give space to the anti republican forces. Next thing you know we are going back to the 1990 constitution, which is what the NC and the UML leaders have wanted all along. That can not be allowed. 

And if the NC and the UML will not join the current government to give it an all party face, the current caretaker government has to take the country into elections anyhow. I don't think the NC and the UML have the option to boycott the elections where they will be soundly defeated. They will emerge smaller than they were in the last constituent assembly. 

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Political Polarizations

List of Prime Ministers of Nepal (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Maoists Have Split, The NC, UML Will Split

The leadership of the two status quo parties - the NC, and the UML - are the reason the country today has neither the new constitution nor a constituent assembly. They got in the way of due process and cost the country billions. That is a political crime and has to be punished. The appropriate punishment is for the Janajati and Madhesi leaders inside those two parties to walk away and form a new party or two. The best outcome of the premature dissolution of the constituent assembly will be the birth of the country's first Janajati party. I look forward to that happening.

The Maoist Split

The Baidya faction is going to be like the Bamdev faction of the UML when they split. The Baidya faction will weaken the mother party some, sure, but it might not win more than a handful of seats should it contest elections on its own. And by his own admission Baidya does not want to launch a revolution, not now, the precise accusation based on which he walked away. Now the mother party has an even bigger reason to form electoral alliances with the Madhesi parties.

All Party Election Government

As the choice of the biggest party in the last elected body in the country I think Baburam Bhattarai is the most suitable person to lead an all party government to fresh elections to a new constituent assembly in the country. To go for a name like Sushil Koirala at this point would be to give in to the tendency among the NC and the UML leadership to disregard due process, the tendency that deprived the country a new constitution the last time around.

One Unified Madhesi Party

The talk along those lines in some quarters are positive but perhaps not realistic at this juncture. A meaningful electoral alliance might be more realistic.

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What's Most Disappointing

The number one thing I have pushed for in Nepal's new constitution is turning Nepal into a democracy of state funded parties. Do that and there will be no need for the "revolution" the hardliner Maoists still dream about.

Of all parties I thought the Maoists might bite the idea. But they haven't. And for the longest time I thought it is because the Maoists have too much money. But now when there is a de facto ideological vertical split in the Maoist party I no longer think that is the reason.

Not going for that goal I attribute to the inferiority complex of the Nepali politicians, Maoists as well everyone else. Someone else somewhere else has to have thought of a political idea before a Nepali politician will adopt it.

Turning Nepal into a multi party democracy of state funded parties would be a fusion of the two competing ideologies of the past century. But not even the Maoists are going for it.

I get the impression the Maoists are settling for a republic. Getting rid of the monarchy was a big enough achievement for them. Classlessness is not a goal no more.

It amazes me.

6 States: Possible
A Non Territorial State For Dalits: Great Idea
Proposed Constitution
Mantra: Economic Revolution

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6 States: Possible

Good Map, Bad Map

I think it is possible to have a fair federalism with the six states shown in the map above. And there is no need to give ethnic names to the states. Or perhaps a mix. Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali, Eastern Terai, Western Terai.

But it can not be a truncated Terai like in the map below where the easternmost and the westernmost parts are lost. And there is no arguing Chitwan is not part of the Terai.

Since half of the people live in the Terai, half the parliamentary seats have to be in the Terai. The directly elected president has to be a one person, one vote thing nationwide.

Holi 2012

Phagwah/Holi In Richmond Hill: March 11
Rang Barse: Happy Holi

Good Map, Bad Map

I can't believe anyone today is proposing the second map.

Even the map at the top has issues. Narayani is an unnatural state. Chitwan belongs in the Madhesh. Narayani feels like territory stolen from the Madhesh, Tamuwan and Magarat states. Karnali is too big and it should more appropriately be named Khasan. But I guess it is not too big populationwise.

I like it that the two states in the Terai are adjacent to each other.

The Nepali Congress Will Get Wiped Out In The Terai In The Next Election
A Non Territorial State For Dalits: Great Idea

The Nepali Congress Will Get Wiped Out In The Terai In The Next Election

Image via WikipediaThe Nepali Congress ruled the country after 1990 for the most part and it was so because it stayed strong in the Terai, electorally speaking. The UML had a rather small presence in the Terai. And parties like the Sadbhavana did not make much headway because the thinking was that if you voted for the Congress, you can get work done later, because the party will be in power. That incumbency factor was of a huge advantage to the Congress.

But that is no longer true after the last election. The Congress by now is half the size of the Maoist party. And it shows no signs of getting into power. The incumbency advantage now has shifted to the Madhesi parties.

The Madhesi parties are going to have to forge an electoral alliance. Like the Left Front and the Third Front in India. They are going to have to not contest against each other. If they could do that they would do really well.

That is not to say the Maoists will not compete against them. The Maoists might try and secure a full majority on their own. I don't see it happening, as in I don't see them securing a majority on their own. If they are wise they'd forge a pre-poll alliance with the Madhesi parties to secure power post-poll.

And so you might look at a scenario whereby the Madhesi parties sweep the Madhesh, and the Maoists do well in Tharuwan and the hills and mountains. The Congress fights a losing battle against the Madhesi parties in the Madhesh. And the UML fights a losing battle against the Maoists in the hills.

The Maoists and the Madhesi parties currently stand at about 50% strength. After the next election they might end up with 60% if they make the right pre-poll moves.

The NC and the UML have shown their true colors through their stances on federalism. The truth is they never really accepted the idea of federalism. And the people have to punish them for that.

Republica: SRC report of majority to be accepted: DPM Gachchhadar

He even criticized the CPN-UML and Nepali Congress (NC) for being anti-autonomous states. The members of the UML and NC who submitted the separate reports have done so against the ethics, Gachhadar said. The separate report submitted by the NC and UML follows the panchayat style, he said. He also claimed that NC and UML have presented such report as they are strictly against United Democratic Madhesi Front.

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A Non Territorial State For Dalits: Great Idea

Image via WikipediaRepublica: SRC majority report for 11 states

Limbuwan, Kirant, Tamsaling, Newa, Tamuwan, Narayani, Magarat, Karnali, Madhes-Mithila-Bhojpura, Madhesh-Abadh-Tharuwan and Dalit (non-territorial)

I am surprised there are still lawmakers insisting on Panchayati style north south states. But the 11 state idea is a good one, and the best part of the report might be the idea of securing a non territorial state for Dalits. That would be a cutting edge thing to do. Minus that the Dalits would have been shortchanged. I am so glad for this provision.

The Dalits are the most downtrodden group in Nepal.

This has to be coupled with the 33% provision for women. That applies to all parliaments in all states, including the Dalit state.

I am glad to see the country get one step closer to federalism.

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