Wednesday, April 18, 2012

What's Most Disappointing


The number one thing I have pushed for in Nepal's new constitution is turning Nepal into a democracy of state funded parties. Do that and there will be no need for the "revolution" the hardliner Maoists still dream about.

Of all parties I thought the Maoists might bite the idea. But they haven't. And for the longest time I thought it is because the Maoists have too much money. But now when there is a de facto ideological vertical split in the Maoist party I no longer think that is the reason.

Not going for that goal I attribute to the inferiority complex of the Nepali politicians, Maoists as well everyone else. Someone else somewhere else has to have thought of a political idea before a Nepali politician will adopt it.

Turning Nepal into a multi party democracy of state funded parties would be a fusion of the two competing ideologies of the past century. But not even the Maoists are going for it.

I get the impression the Maoists are settling for a republic. Getting rid of the monarchy was a big enough achievement for them. Classlessness is not a goal no more.

It amazes me.

6 States: Possible
A Non Territorial State For Dalits: Great Idea
Proposed Constitution
Mantra: Economic Revolution
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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

6 States: Possible


Good Map, Bad Map

I think it is possible to have a fair federalism with the six states shown in the map above. And there is no need to give ethnic names to the states. Or perhaps a mix. Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali, Eastern Terai, Western Terai.

But it can not be a truncated Terai like in the map below where the easternmost and the westernmost parts are lost. And there is no arguing Chitwan is not part of the Terai.

Since half of the people live in the Terai, half the parliamentary seats have to be in the Terai. The directly elected president has to be a one person, one vote thing nationwide.


Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Good Map, Bad Map


I can't believe anyone today is proposing the second map.

Even the map at the top has issues. Narayani is an unnatural state. Chitwan belongs in the Madhesh. Narayani feels like territory stolen from the Madhesh, Tamuwan and Magarat states. Karnali is too big and it should more appropriately be named Khasan. But I guess it is not too big populationwise.

I like it that the two states in the Terai are adjacent to each other.

The Nepali Congress Will Get Wiped Out In The Terai In The Next Election
A Non Territorial State For Dalits: Great Idea

The Nepali Congress Will Get Wiped Out In The Terai In The Next Election

English: Nepali congress leaderImage via WikipediaThe Nepali Congress ruled the country after 1990 for the most part and it was so because it stayed strong in the Terai, electorally speaking. The UML had a rather small presence in the Terai. And parties like the Sadbhavana did not make much headway because the thinking was that if you voted for the Congress, you can get work done later, because the party will be in power. That incumbency factor was of a huge advantage to the Congress.

But that is no longer true after the last election. The Congress by now is half the size of the Maoist party. And it shows no signs of getting into power. The incumbency advantage now has shifted to the Madhesi parties.

The Madhesi parties are going to have to forge an electoral alliance. Like the Left Front and the Third Front in India. They are going to have to not contest against each other. If they could do that they would do really well.

That is not to say the Maoists will not compete against them. The Maoists might try and secure a full majority on their own. I don't see it happening, as in I don't see them securing a majority on their own. If they are wise they'd forge a pre-poll alliance with the Madhesi parties to secure power post-poll.

And so you might look at a scenario whereby the Madhesi parties sweep the Madhesh, and the Maoists do well in Tharuwan and the hills and mountains. The Congress fights a losing battle against the Madhesi parties in the Madhesh. And the UML fights a losing battle against the Maoists in the hills.

The Maoists and the Madhesi parties currently stand at about 50% strength. After the next election they might end up with 60% if they make the right pre-poll moves.

The NC and the UML have shown their true colors through their stances on federalism. The truth is they never really accepted the idea of federalism. And the people have to punish them for that.

Republica: SRC report of majority to be accepted: DPM Gachchhadar
He even criticized the CPN-UML and Nepali Congress (NC) for being anti-autonomous states. The members of the UML and NC who submitted the separate reports have done so against the ethics, Gachhadar said. The separate report submitted by the NC and UML follows the panchayat style, he said. He also claimed that NC and UML have presented such report as they are strictly against United Democratic Madhesi Front.
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A Non Territorial State For Dalits: Great Idea

Dalit Janajati PartyImage via WikipediaRepublica: SRC majority report for 11 states
Limbuwan, Kirant, Tamsaling, Newa, Tamuwan, Narayani, Magarat, Karnali, Madhes-Mithila-Bhojpura, Madhesh-Abadh-Tharuwan and Dalit (non-territorial)
I am surprised there are still lawmakers insisting on Panchayati style north south states. But the 11 state idea is a good one, and the best part of the report might be the idea of securing a non territorial state for Dalits. That would be a cutting edge thing to do. Minus that the Dalits would have been shortchanged. I am so glad for this provision.

The Dalits are the most downtrodden group in Nepal.

This has to be coupled with the 33% provision for women. That applies to all parliaments in all states, including the Dalit state.

I am glad to see the country get one step closer to federalism.
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Sunday, January 29, 2012

Arthik Kranti

House of Parliament, Kathmandu, NepalImage via WikipediaZee News: Nepal PM announces economic development plans
The list of projects mentioned in the vision paper includes completing Kathmandu-Terai fast track road, starting construction of a second international airport outside Kathmandu, preparing detailed project report for 600 MW Budhi Gandaki hydropower Project and starting construction of the 750 MW West Seti project to ease the country's power shortage within the next fiscal year. ....... The 108-page plan of action has proposed 27 programmes, including restructuring of ministries and bringing regional administration offices under the Prime Minister's Office, to achieve good governance.
Rajnitik kranti. Madhesi kranti. Arthik kranti.

The difference is the economic revolution is going to last three decades.
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Monday, January 16, 2012

A Directly Elected President Is Not Going To Be A Dictator

English: leaders of CPN maoist of Nepal.Image via WikipediaI am not talking electoral college. In America the president is not elected directly or Al Gore would have won in 2000, not George Bush. I am talking electing the president directly in Nepal.

President Or Prime Minister?

Let's imagine a scenario. We have a new constitution and now it is time to head towards elections. The Maoists and the Madhesi Morcha might form an alliance again and Prachanda might be the Maoists' candidate for president. There would be a strong chance Prachanda would get elected.

He would have a four year term. If he does a good job, and the alliance holds, and if he wins again, he might get a second four year term. There would not be a third four year term for him after that. After that he could choose to retire, or he could contest elections to become a member of parliament, it would be up to him.

As Commander In Chief of the Nepal Army his most important tasks might be to (1) democratize the Nepal Army, and (2) to rightsize it, to bring it down to something like 30,000 soldiers and in the process have it reflect Nepal's ethnic and gender composition.

The annual budget for the country would originate out of the president's office, but unless it is passed by the two houses of parliament, that budget would not come into effect. That is called check and balance. That right there is power for the parliament. And it is very likely the Maoists would not have a majority in the parliament. No one party would. A president who could not pass a budget without the parliament would not be a dictator.

The president would have a cabinet. The president would appoint ambassadors.

The parliament would have a Speaker, the head of the legislative branch.

A Maoist might end up president, but the Maoist party likely will not have a majority in the parliament. And there will be elections to the local bodies. It is going to be interesting to see which parties form governments in the various states in the country. And there are going to be local elections. There is going to be a great diffusion of power thanks to federalism.

We might opt for parliamentary style Chief Ministers for the states just to keep the Nepali Congress happy, and to not end up with too many elections.
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Monday, January 02, 2012

President Or Prime Minister?

English: Sketch portrait of Pushpa Kamal Dahal...Image via WikipediaI was super engaged in 2005, 2006 and half way through 2007. I have been rather disengaged from the middle of 2008. But I just came across this article by Kanak Mani Dixit that gave me a glimpse into some of the work that is being done into the new constitution.

He seems to be opposed to the idea of a directly elected president. I have supported the idea. And I don't think my support has been an attempt to copy the American way. In America they don't elect the president through direct vote. I think Nepalis should elect their president directly, one person one vote counted nationwide. If no one person gets at least 50% of the vote there should be a runoff election within a month among the top two candidates.

A directly elected president with a four year term and a two term limit might not be such a bad idea.

(1) It will force a bipolarization of parties, only an alliance of parties could put forth a winning candidate.
(2) After victory the president would become sort of detached from the party.
(3) There would be stability.
(4) A two term president would be out of party and politics for good.
(5) There is something to be said of direct democracy. Forget electoral college. Let people vote for the presidential candidate directly. The idea has to be to vote for the person, not party. This will bring down the parties in importance. The attempt would be to forge a direct relationship between the president and the people.
(6) Don't make it a five year term, and do have term limits.

I am not sure Pushpa Kamal Dahal is a shoo-in for the job. Democracy has a way of surprising you. The Maoists would have to forge an alliance with either the Madhesi Morcha or one of the other two big parties - the Congress, or the UML - to ensure a victory for their candidate. But that coalition building is what happens in the parliament that elects a Prime Minister, does it not? Why not let that coalition building happen out in the open? For all to see?

I am for a directly elected president with a four year term and a two term limit. That president of course would be Commander In Chief of the Nepal Army.
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Monday, November 14, 2011

Ye To Had Ho Gayee

This video clip has been making the rounds right now among some Nepalis.



Some people are rightly offended. But those same people were okay when artists like Santosh Pant made fun of the Madhesis on TV. This particular clip does not have it, but the program did.



And then there is this.



An American getting offended that Nepal's Kumari got stripped of her spiritual status because she visited the US is not insulting, I don't think it is. Really though, why would you strip Kumari's status just because she visited some country? And I don't think Colbert is acting offended, I think he is trying to act funny.

People have a right to burn flags. It is called free speech.

And this offended some Indians, take this.


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Sunday, November 06, 2011

Baburam Compared To Barack


Haaretz: The audacity of hope in Nepal
It is hard to think of two cultures more dissimilar than those of America and Nepal. The first glorifies an individual's ability to change in order to get ahead and overcome the many obstacles in his path. Therefore there is no story more beloved than a "Cinderella" tale: Against all the odds, thanks only to their abilities, a poor person breaks through and achieves amazing things. Nepalese culture, however, sanctifies the individual's ability to accept and come to terms with the way things are in a way that will not damage the purity of his soul. You're in distress? Don't fight it; learn to live with it. Change will come only in the inner realm of the soul.

While the Americans glorify deeds, the Nepalis believe in miracles. Acceptable behavior is also entirely different: If the American is extroverted, the Nepali is introverted. If the American extravagantly shares all his troubles and achievements, the Nepali hides them. In many senses, these two cultures operate in parallel universes.

"There, in the university's fine library, I encountered a small book about a person I had never heard of before," Bhattarai said, "and it shook up my life. This was the biography of Che Guevara, and after I read it I swore to do everything in my power to help my people live in real economic and social freedom."

The hopes attached to him compete only with those pinned on his colleague on the other side of the globe, United States President Barack Obama. It is with good reason he is called "the Nepali Obama" here. Like Obama, Bhattarai is a rare combination of a man of the book and a man of deeds. And like Obama, he too attributes importance to symbolic measures. When he was elected, he preferred to do without an official car and instead continued to travel in a locally made car, without air-conditioning.

...... the idea of a "first lady" is also foreign to Nepalese culture.

...... nearly 60 percent of Nepalese people live below the poverty line.

Traditional agriculture is still the main source of employment for more than 80 percent of the citizens and added to this is the difficulty in recruiting foreign investment because of the small size of the economy, the geographic remoteness, the absence of infrastructures within the country and the considerable exposure to natural disasters.
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