Homework For Another Round Of Civil War

Killings down, abductions up: INSEC

KOL Report
Oct 6 - There has been a significant decrease in the killings of people but the cases of abductions have risen sharply in the past one month after the announcement of a three-month-unilateral truce by the Maoists on Sept 3, according to the Informal Sector Service Centre (INSEC).

A report made public today by the local human rights body said that 33 people have lost their lives after the truce declaration. Twenty-nine of them were killed by the state and four by the Maoists.

INSEC further reports that the Maoists abducted 8, 057 people, most of them students and teachers, from 35 districts during the one-month period.

The security forces have arrested at least 106 persons from 25 districts in allegations of being Maoists during the same period, says the report.

The report accuses government of intensifying its search operations in remote areas.

"In the past when the presence of security person would be nil in the villages, they are now seen actively carrying out search operations in those areas," the report says.

This is beyond irresponsible. This is extremely irresponsible. This king wants to wash his hand in blood.

After the Maoists declared their unilateral ceasefire, the king and his men had a one week window to react to it positively.

Some of the things the king needs to realize but refuses to are:
  1. There is no military solution to the insurgency.
  2. There is a fundamental asymmetry between the RNA and the PLA, in their style of operations. Even if the RNA were to double in size and more to become 200,000 strong, they could still not win. There would be no victory declaration. Why? Refer to point 1. The Maoists do not have to attain the RNA's numerical strength to maintain the military paralysis.
  3. A king who seeks foreign aid to fight the Maoists is lying when he says it is wrong to seek foreign aid for peace. He is being cruel. UN mediation would be the best way to forge lasting peace.
  4. He was a king. Then he became a dictator. Now he is on his way to becoming a man-eating tiger.
  5. The ceasefire was not an act of weakness on the part of the Maoists. And it became the lull before the storm only after it was not reciprocated. They did intend a soft landing. But they can't do it on their own.
  6. Their ideological transformation away from a communist republic is not a sham, but they can not do it on their own.
  7. Ultimately only a constituent assembly will bring lasting peace. It is the king who has been dragging his feet on this fundamental point. His gameplan is to postpone it for as long as possible, preferably indefinitely. That will be his undoing. The Nepali people do not seek a constituent assembly as a gift from the king. That assembly is their birthright.
Just looking at this one report I shudder at the thought of the ferocity, the intensity of the civil war should the ceasefire come to an end. This is unnecessary. The king is upping the ante.

No, the Maoists and the king are not equally responsible. The king holds primary responsibility, because he holds the seat of power.

If the civil war enters another round, the following will be directly responsible:
  • The Maoists: for not declaring a full ceasefire to provide political space to the democrats, for not including a halt to abductions and extortions as part and parcel of the ceasefire.
  • The King: for not responsding to the ceasefire in a positive way, instead letting it go waste, instead doing all he can to bring the ceasefire to an end, instead encouraging the Dorambaites.
  • The Democrats: for not ditching the House revival idea, for not going for an all party government under Article 127, for not coming forth with a clear political program so a movement can be launched.
  • The Foreign Powers: for not pressuring the king towards an interim government and a constituent assembly.
  • India: for taking a stand against UN involvement.