Sunday, January 19, 2014

Samanupatik Nautanki

English: Nitish Kumar
English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
(written for Vishwa Sandesh)

I have been astounded by the process through which the political parties in Nepal have allotted the seats that fell in their laps through the proportional representation formula.

My impression is the way it is supposed to work is a political party submits a list of candidates, and if it wins 10 seats for proportional representation, the first 10 names on the list get selected automatically. There is no room to play around with the list after the votes have been counted.

In Nepal’s case, since there is a major emphasis on inclusion, there should have been provisions like every third name on the list should be that of a female, every tenth name should be that of a dalit, every sixth name should be Madhesi, every fifth name should be that of a Janajati. For the regional parties like the Madhesi parties are, there would be emphasis also on the Muslims.

Instead the party presidents ended up having near total sway leading to major intra-party dissatisfactions.

There has been much talk of an inclusive democracy over the past few years. I believe 49% of all new entrants into the civil service will be coming through some sort of an inclusive formula. That is a decent arrangement whose pace might be quickened through a dramatic downsizing of the bureaucracy.

When you eliminate certain federal ministries and reduce the size of others, that creates room for the bureaucratic apparatus that needs to be set up at the state level. If the drama that has played out over the past few weeks ends up doing a repeat when the state level ministries are set up, it will not be fruitful. Meritocracy has to be the buzzword. Let the best candidates fill up the slots. That is what would be in the best interests of the people.

Federalism should not mean the regional political lords stuff up the to be built regional bureaucracies with their political cronies. That would be a disaster in the making.

A bright future for Nepal entails that the political parties play a smaller role in national life, and the party presidents have a smaller power base inside their political parties. The onus has to be on empowering the individual, the emphasis has to be on the private sector and the associated wealth creation and job creation.

The way the political party bosses were allowed to allocate their party’s PR seats is a bad sign. This is a sign the party bosses might again be more interested in forming and pulling down governments than in constitution writing.

I wonder how the proportional representation thing will play out in the constitution that will get written. First of all one hopes Nepal sure does not end up with 600 MPs. That is more than what India and America have. For a small country that Nepal is 200 MPs would be more than enough. Add to that another 100 for the upper house and maybe that is what the politicos have in mind. Perhaps those 100 would be by the PR formula. But the lists will have to be finalized before the votes are cast, otherwise you end up with a sham PR system.

A political party builds and submits its list, to the Election Commission and to the public. The list has to meet the inclusion requirements for the DaMaJaMa. If a party might win 20 PR seats, the first 20 names on the list get selected automatically.

Party bosses allocating PR seats after the fact is not too different from when the king used to appoint the anchaladhish, the zonal commissioners.

Proportional representation is a good thought. It is a great way to make every vote count. And the inclusion formula is a great one. Nepal has seen too much social disparity over the centuries.

That same way of thinking has to percolate all the way to the local levels. Nitish in Bihar has done a good job of including women at the panchayat level. He has engaged in some good social engineering. I think Nepal should learn.

Despite the uninspiring drama of the past few weeks, I hope the elected leaders in Nepal deliver a new constitution before 2014 is out.

The political process is by definition a messy process. No party boss in Nepal is a Nitish Kumar, and that is the sad reality. But peace and constitution is not too much to ask for at this point.

A system is only as good as the people who run it. But there is also something called a political culture shift. And Nitish south of the border is proof one person can make a huge difference. For the longest time Bihar stayed the epitome of hopelessness. But it is now on its feet and running.

Once Nepal has a constitution and regular federal, state and local elections perhaps the process will throw up some worthy leaders who will work to give the country double digit growth rates. One hopes.
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Monday, December 23, 2013

Matters Economic

Federalism is a foregone conclusion. In a country where no ethnic group is more than 20% of the population, Nepal was always destined to have multi-identity states, it was only a question of what you were going to name them, and geographic names might be the most palatable.

And I do believe we are going to get a constitution before 2014 is out. You can accuse the Congressis of nepotism and corruption and inefficiency and ignorance and lack of imagination and a dozen other traits that democracy throws your way because mediocrity is all too pervasive in most aspects of life, but one thing that political party has stood for time and again is basic democracy, the rudiments of rule of law.

I think it is smart of the Maoists to decide not to go into power. When you do that you get to ride the anti-incumbency wave the next time around.

The Madhesi parties are in the most precarious position. When they split like amoeba over the past few years somehow they felt they were going to defy the laws of political gravity. Does not work that way. The Terai is going to end up with two states, which is what the Madhesi parties wanted. The big parties also fielded Madhesi candidates in the Madhesi majority constituencies. So if your identity and your agenda are both co-opted, you have some homework to do.

The Madhesi parties might not unite and become one, and they might not do the ideological homework that would stem from the realization that now after federalism and the constitution the parties that best focus on the economy like a laser beam will perform the best at the polls. The Madhesi parties might fare equally bad the next time around as well.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Roger Adhikari Bahun

I have never formally joined any Nepali organization in America although I have hardly been passive. I was the only full timer among Nepalis in the US to have worked for Nepal 's democracy movement back in 2005-06. I launched ANTA in NYC but never became a member, although I have attended more ANTA events than most.

But I have stayed informed. Sometimes you hear, sometimes you read. And so it has come to my notice that the first Janajati to attain a national leadership position among the Nepalis is under attack by the Bahun brigade and this guy Roger Adhikari has been leading the charge.

I once met the guy. I was sick of all the posturing going on around him by several ANTA leaders, as if ANTA was formed to apologize to and to pay respects to Pahadiyas like this Anglo name Roger. This guy reeked of prejudice. You could just smell it from a distance. And then he opened his mouth and my suspicions were confirmed. And then he said something racist in an online forum and I picked up a fight. The hell with this guy, I said to ANTA members.

He is on record making a case as to why Nepalis in America will not and should not invest in Nepal. This Pahadiya does not even love the Pahad. This guy is a lost cause.

I don't know much about Chhewang Lama 's time in office. But I like the fact that a Sherpa has managed to become president of ANA. That has never happened before.

And now this Roger guy is all over the map trying to scuttle Sherpa's chances. Chhewang Lama is in a public position and thus is open to criticism. But Roger's tone of voice tells me his motivation is racism. This Adhikari guy is prejudiced upto his neck. In short, his opposition to Chhewang is that he is a Sherpa, a Janajati. Shame on Roger.

Saturday, December 07, 2013

Federal Democratic Alliance: Too Little, Too Late

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal
Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This Federal Democratic Alliance would have swept the country if it had been formed before the election in a way that there was only one FDA candidate in each of the 240 constituencies. Madhesi leaders in 30 political parties can not do the work of party unification but they want 13 million Madhesis to unite behind their cause? That is laughable. What was the expectation? That 13 million Madhesis will stand behind 30 Madhesi political parties all of whom were competing against each other?

March 2013: How The FDRA Could Bring In Baidya, Yadav, Rai
The FDRA's Options
The State Of Nepali Politics: A Diagram

There has been an obvious wrongdoing in the election mechanism. At least three million voters were kicked off the voter list. As for the elaborate sabotage that the Maoists are accusing of, I don't know. It feels as far fetched as the Nepali Congress claim in 2008 that the YCL basically handed over the election to the Maoists then.

I can see a little bit truth to both claims. But both claims in their extremes feel far-fetched. The YCL did some bulleying in 2008. Perhaps the army stuffed some boxes. But there was a major pro-Maoist wave in 2008. They were an untested bunch, and the people thought they might be radically different from the NC and the UML. But in power they did not act too different. And so that created an anti-incumbency wave.

The Madhesi parties went to the people wanting two states in the Terai. I see two states in the Terai being created by the new assembly.

The Maoists campaigned hard against the Madhesi parties in the Terai. The Madhesi parties campaigned hard against each other in the Terai. Ashok Rai went in solo. No wonder they all got poor results. The people wondered, if the Maoists and the Madhesis feel strongly about identity based federalism, why are they so against each other?

Madhesi Parties: 12 Lakh PR Votes

Now the best option is to go for six states - Eastern Terai, Western Terai, Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali - where half the MPs get elected from the Terai.

The Federalism Question: Maps

The attempt should be to form an all party government. The attempt should be that the Maoists get the Speaker position.

Then these parties should do internal homework.

Isn't this amazing? All these Madhesi parties will join the Maoist alliance, but they will still not talk about becoming one party? I find that mind boggling.

If they face the local and state elections in a fractured way like they faced the November election, they will fare just as bad.

UCPN (Maoist), other dissidents form new alliance
A group of 18 dissident political parties has formed a Federal Democratic Alliance (FDA) ..... UCPN (Maoist), Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), Madhesi People´s Rights Forum Nepal (MPRF-N), Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSP-N), Sadbhavana Party, Tarai-Madhes Sadbhavana Party, MPRF-Republican, Tharuhat Tarai Party, Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch, Rastriya Janamukti Party and Federal Sadbhavana Party ..... UCPN (Maoist) leaders have accused the Election Commission, the Nepal Army and "some other invisible forces" of perpetrating vote fraud under a plan to defeat Maoist candidates across the country. Maoist leaders said that the number of votes was manipulated while collecting the ballot boxes from the polling booths and bringing them to the vote counting centers.
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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Consensus Government For A Consensus Constitution


President: Ram Baran Yadav. He gets to continue because that is what the interim constitution says.
Prime Minister: Sushil Koirala.
Deputy Prime Minister: KP Oli might feel it is his turn.
Ministers:
Congress 9
UML 7
Maoist 4
MJFD 1
MJFN 1
TMLP 1
SP 1

This would represent 499 out of 575 seats. That is a comfortable margin for constitution making.

It is important to bring the four forces together so as to ensure smooth constitution making. On the tricky issue of federalism, I think we can make do with six states, four in the Hills/Mountains, and two in the Terai, all of them with one word geographic names. That is how I am reading the people's mandate.
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Formula For Unification

Eastern Terai -  - HT -3
Eastern Terai - - HT -3 (Photo credit: lecercle)

  1. Come up with a new name. Do not use any existing name. Make that name ethnicity and geography neutral. Keep it short. How about Samabeshi Party? Just a thought. 
  2. The party presidency goes to Gachhedar because (a) his party was the top vote earner, and (b) Tharus are the most populous ethnic group in the Terai
  3. Mahantha Thakur gets the Sarbamanya Neta title for being the most senior leader. 
  4. Upendra Yadav, Rajendra Mahto and Sharad Singh Bhandari can be the three Vice Presidents. They also just so happen to represent Yadavs, Vaisyas, and the indigenous Pahadis in the Terai. People like Sharad Singh Bhandari are of Pahadi origin but they have been in the Terai for generations. They know no other home. 
  5. A 11 member Politburo and a 31 member Central Committee would house all top leaders. Leaders of the Terai Madhesh Sadbhavana Party, the Dalit Janajati Party, and the Nepali Janata Dal belong in the Politburo as does Sarita Giri for being the top woman Madhesi leader. 
  6. The vote tally of each party is the sole determinant of what seat they get at the table. 
  7. Hold a national convention before monsoon, perhaps in April and go on to win the local and state elections.  

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Madhesi Parties: 12 Lakh PR Votes


There was an anti-Maoist wave, but there was no anti-Madhesi wave. If the Madhesi parties had been one, that unified party would have emerged as the third largest. But that is simple arithmetic. That unification might have created a pro-Madhesi wave, and that wave might have catapulted the unified party into a possible second position.

This is not a question of what the 13 million Madhesis will do, if they are politically conscious or not, or how they will vote. This is a question of what two dozen Madhesi leaders will do. Will they live up to the promise?

If one unified Madhesi party emerges, that party will produce the Chief Ministers in both states in the Terai.
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Unification Efforts

बाराका मधेशवादी दलहरुको एउटै कार्यालय बन्दै
बारामा सक्रिय ९ वटा मधेशवादी दलहरु एउटै कार्यालयमा बसी ती दलहरु बीच एकीकरणका लागि जिल्ला स्तरबाटै दबाब दिने उद्देश्यले बुधबार बाराको कलैयामा निर्णय गरेका छन् ... मधेशका जिल्लाहरुमा मधेशवादी दलहरु हारेपनि तीनिहरुको भोट जोड्दा हरेक क्षेत्रमा विजयी भएको निष्कर्ष निकाल्दै उनीहरुले मधेशवादी दलहरुका उम्मेदवारहरुको हारको मुख्य कारण पार्टीहरु बिच फुट रहेको भन्दै केन्द्रमा पार्टी बिच एकिकरण गराउने उद्देश्यले चारबुँदे निर्णयसमेत गरेका छन् । बाराका सम्पूर्ण मधेशवादी दलहरु एकैछातामा आई पार्टी एकीकरणका लागि प्रक्रिया अगाडि बढाउने, हरेक पार्टीले जिल्ला स्तरमा आ–आफ्नो निर्णय गरी दुई दिन भित्र संयुक्त पार्टी कार्यालय खोल्ने लागयतका निणर्यहरु उनीहरुले गरेका छन् । ..... कार्यक्रममा फोरम नेपाल, फोरम लोकतान्त्रिक, फोरम गणतान्त्रिक, रामसपा, तमसपा, सपा, नेसपा, तमलोपा, संघीय सद्भावना पार्टीलगायत ९ वटा राजनीतिक दलका केन्द्रदेखि जिल्ला तहसम्मका नेता कार्यकर्ताहरु सामूहिक रुपमा एकीकरणका लागि अघि बढ्नुपर्ने निष्कर्ष निकालिएको थियो ।
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