Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Monday, November 25, 2013
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Projected Seats (2)
 |
| Seats won by Nepali Congress (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
UML 212
Maoists 97
Kamal Thapa 34
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 11
Others 7
Total 574
Nominated 26
The Federalism Question: Maps
I personally would be happy with three states - Koshi, Gandaki, Karnali - that has the existing 75 districts, where half the MPs come from the Terai. This was the first map I drew. That was in 2005. But I don't see anyone going for it. I called it a purely economic federalism. This map would be the best one for Nepal's economic progress.
One tangent would be to go to 25 districts from the current 75, but that might be even more far fetched in terms of the political reality, but I think 25 districts would be a good idea. The district governments would be stronger.
This below was the map I proposed to try and be in the same league as the Maoist-Madhesi sentiment. The NC-UML objection I believe is more to the names of the states than the map itself. What if some states are combined and all are given geographic names? So you would combine Magarat and Tamuwan to call it Gandaki, you would combine Tamang and Newa and call it Bagmati, Kirat would be called Koshi. Khasan would be Karnali, Madhesh would be called Eastern Terai, Tharuwan would be called Western Terai. Would that be more palatable? I think so.
These two maps below do a good job of exhibiting the differences between the two camps on federalism.
What I dislike about the six province model is that it is violently disrespectful of the fact that Kanchanpur, Chitwan, Sunsari, Morang and Jhapa are integral parts of the Terai. Otherwise four states in the Hills like in that map, and two in the Terai, all six with geographical names might be a good compromise map between the two camps. The 11 province model I find treacherous. It also seems to have lost the people's mandate.
A good compromise position is that the Maoists and the Madhesis should be okay with purely geographic one word names for the states, and the NC and the UML should respect the geographical integrity of the Terai. States with names Eastern Terai and Western Terai that include Kanchanpur, Chitwan, Morang and Jhapa will be as likely to produce Pahadi Chief Ministers as Madhesi ones. Why is that not a good idea? By now a lot of Madhesis live in Kathmandu Valley. I want to see a Madhesi Chief Minister of the Bagmati state some time over the next decade.
I say create six geographic states with 25 districts from districts merged from the existing 75. As in, no new geographic boundaries.
And everyone seems to have forgotten the idea of a non geographic state for Dalits. That bothers me. Proportional elections where DaMaJaMa participation is guaranteed is a must. One third for women, 10% for Dalits, all that is a must. 49% reservation for the DaMaJaMa for all new vacancies in the bureaucracy, police and the army, all good ideas. It is called state restructuring. The biggest restructuring though is downsizing. Nepal needs a parliament that is 200 strong, not 600 strong. Not even America and India have 600 strong parliaments. The bureaucracy could be half as big, the army could be 10% as big, the police could be one third as big. All that downsizing would be good for the DaMaJaMa as well the Bahun-Chhetris, because it would be best for Nepal's economy. More teachers and health workers, less soldiers. Less red tape.
This below was the map I proposed to try and be in the same league as the Maoist-Madhesi sentiment. The NC-UML objection I believe is more to the names of the states than the map itself. What if some states are combined and all are given geographic names? So you would combine Magarat and Tamuwan to call it Gandaki, you would combine Tamang and Newa and call it Bagmati, Kirat would be called Koshi. Khasan would be Karnali, Madhesh would be called Eastern Terai, Tharuwan would be called Western Terai. Would that be more palatable? I think so.
These two maps below do a good job of exhibiting the differences between the two camps on federalism.
What I dislike about the six province model is that it is violently disrespectful of the fact that Kanchanpur, Chitwan, Sunsari, Morang and Jhapa are integral parts of the Terai. Otherwise four states in the Hills like in that map, and two in the Terai, all six with geographical names might be a good compromise map between the two camps. The 11 province model I find treacherous. It also seems to have lost the people's mandate.
A good compromise position is that the Maoists and the Madhesis should be okay with purely geographic one word names for the states, and the NC and the UML should respect the geographical integrity of the Terai. States with names Eastern Terai and Western Terai that include Kanchanpur, Chitwan, Morang and Jhapa will be as likely to produce Pahadi Chief Ministers as Madhesi ones. Why is that not a good idea? By now a lot of Madhesis live in Kathmandu Valley. I want to see a Madhesi Chief Minister of the Bagmati state some time over the next decade.
I say create six geographic states with 25 districts from districts merged from the existing 75. As in, no new geographic boundaries.
And everyone seems to have forgotten the idea of a non geographic state for Dalits. That bothers me. Proportional elections where DaMaJaMa participation is guaranteed is a must. One third for women, 10% for Dalits, all that is a must. 49% reservation for the DaMaJaMa for all new vacancies in the bureaucracy, police and the army, all good ideas. It is called state restructuring. The biggest restructuring though is downsizing. Nepal needs a parliament that is 200 strong, not 600 strong. Not even America and India have 600 strong parliaments. The bureaucracy could be half as big, the army could be 10% as big, the police could be one third as big. All that downsizing would be good for the DaMaJaMa as well the Bahun-Chhetris, because it would be best for Nepal's economy. More teachers and health workers, less soldiers. Less red tape.
One Madhesi Party Needed
The Madhesi parties have but one option left, and that is to become one party. If they don't go in that direction, they will fare worse in the next election than they did this time around.
How to unify the parties?
Step 1: For a unification committee. That would be composed of the top leaders, Gachhedar and Bharat Bimal, Hridayesh Tripathy and Mahantha Thakur, Mahendra Raya Yadav, Upendra Yadav, Rajendra Mahto. Seven would be enough. If your party did not win a seat, you don't sit on the committee, pure and simple. Make Mahantha Thakur the Sarbamanya Neta, and Gachhedar gets to be party president. Upendra Yadav and Rajendra Mahto can be Vice President. All seven get to sit on the party Politburo.
Then form a 31 member convention committee. There bring in the top leaders of all parties that got at least 20,000 votes. Hold a convention, preferably by April 2014. All office bearers until then are ad hoc. Conduct a massive membership drive. Come up with a new name for the party, a new party flag, a new election symbol, all of which will have to be approved by the general convention.
And that would be the way to go.
The convention committee should also include Janajati leaders, perhaps also people like Ashok Rai.
If this much work is done, and a unification convention is held and one unified party is thus born, the resulting party will easily emerge as the third or fourth largest in the country and will go past 25% strength in the next parliament. That party would ride the anti-incumbency wave in the local and state elections that will likely be held in less than two years. The party would bring forth several Chief Ministers.
The unified Madhesi party should have reservations in the central committee for Dalits, Muslims and women.
Dishanirdesh with CK Lal and Minendra Rijal- November 21, 2013
ईश्वर पोखरेल,मिनेन्द्र रिजाल,अग्नी सापकोटा र सी के लालसंग-24.11.13
प्रचण्डसंग-13.11.13
कमल थापासंग-15.11.13
कांग्रेस उपसभापति रामचन्द्र पौडेलसंग विशेष अन्तर्वार्ता
नेकपा एमाले अध्यक्ष झलनाथ खनालसंगको विशेष अन्तर्वार्ता
उपेन्द्र यादवसंग-16.11.13
तराई केन्द्रीत दलहरुको भूमिका
सम्भावित प्रमुख राजनीतिक खेलाडी र स्वार्थहरु
भावी संघीय प्रदेशको स्वरुप कस्तो?
फोरम नेपालका अध्यक्ष उपेन्द्र यादवसंगको अन्तर्वार्ता
प्रचण्डसंग-13.11.13
सिपि मैनाली र मनीष सुमनसँग-26.10.13
Maoist, Madhesi parties will get more votes in Tarai
Dishanirdesh with Upendra Mahato- October 24, 2013
How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
Three Governments In Four Years
 |
| Prachanda Portrait (Photo credit: izahorsky) |
Nepali Congress 214
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26 (Give 10 to the Baidya group)
NC (214) + Maoist (94) = 308
UML (205) + Maoist (94) + Madhesi parties (23) = 322
NC (214) + UML (205) = 419
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + NC
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + UML
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + NC
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + UML
Political arithmetic shows the Maoists could come into power at least six different ways. In several such scenarios the Maoists could even be leading the government. Nepal has a tendency to get a new government every year. If this parliament is to last four years and the government changes every year, the Maoists could be in power for two of the four years. That is a distinct possibility.
Many Maoist, Madhesi top guns lose in Nepal poll
Splits, hunger for power behind Madhesi parties´ poor show
चुनावी एकीकरणका लागि सद्भावनाको वार्ता टोली
The crumbling clan
3 ex-PMs, over 45 ministers contesting polls from eastern region
Many party central leaders join Mahato's SP
Mahat, Bhattarai engage in twitter war
'Intra-party rift may result in loss in Madhes'
NC to go for 7-province model with 3 in Tarai
NC to accept donation for polls only through banks
Army's Rs 288m deposits at high risk
TMDP leader found dead under mysterious circumstances
Facts and fiction
Madhesi parties drop 'One Madhes one pradesh'
एमाओवादीको दाबी- तराई बढाउने पहाडमा नगुमाउने
एमाले मतदाता केन्द्रित अभियानमा
कोइरालाको विशिष्ट 'प्रोटोकल'
कोइराला र देउवा गुट भेलामा
जनमत हाम्रै पक्षमा : कांग्रेस
Internet penetration reaches 26.1 percent
UCPN (M) ‘at low ebb’ since last CA polls
Fireside with K P Sharma Oli - August 19, 2013
Madhes hold, candidate pick ‘key to NC poll win’
Madhesi messiahs
MPRF-D to go for adjustment with TMDP
पूर्व सभासद लक्ष्मण मेहता सद्भावनामा प्रवेश
एकीकरणको नाममा राजनीतिक प्रोपोगण्डा - भरतविमल यादव (वरिष्ठ नेता मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल)
अध्यक्षहरू नै एकीकरणका बाधक छन् - प्रमोद प्रसाद गुप्ता (महासचिव राष्ट्रिय मधेश समाजवादी पार्टी)
नेसपा (आ.)का कार्यवाहक अध्यक्ष सदभावनामा
मधेशको सशस्त्र आन्दोलनलाई बदनाम गराउन खोजिएको छ -रामलोचन ठाकुर( स्वामीजी) ( संघीय मधेशी मोर्चाका संयोजक तथा जनतान्त्रिक तराई मधेश मुक्ति टाइर्टसका राष्ट्रिय अध्यक्ष
राजनीतिक निकासका लागि संघीय सद्भावनाको अभियान
मधेशप्रति एमाले इमान्दार छैन : महासेठ
Yahoo Tops Google for U.S Web Traffic in July, ComScore Says
Author of fake video must apologise to Amitabh Bachchan: Narendra Modi
China accused of incursion in India's Arunachal Pradesh
Author of fake Narendra Modi video apologises to Amitabh Bachchan
रवीन्द्र अधिकारी र गगन थापासँग-17.08.13
Prachanda Has Room To Play
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| Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” at the Asia Society (Photo credit: Asia Society) |
We have ended up at a scenario where the Maoist party could team up with either the NC or the UML and come into power. That gives us a lot of playing room for someone like Prachanda. You might disagree with his ideology and his worldview, but there is no denying Prachanda is a politically gifted individual. The next two weeks are going to be interesting to watch.
A NC-UML government is not a foregone conclusion.
The prime ministership to the NC, the presidency to the UML, the DPM position to the Maoists, the vice presidency to someone like Mahantha Thakur might be one fair scenario.
Despite a decisive verdict, the situation stays very much fluid. The parties should be creative about power, they also should be creative about federalism.
Projected Seats
 |
| English: This picture used to represent the Nepali Congress. This Picture based on Nepali Congress.png (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26
The arithmetic makes a NC-Maoist, and a UML-Maoist government possible, not to say a NC-UML government. And the identity federalists might have dipped below the one third mark. That might bring forth some interesting tug of war on the federalism question. The Panche parties have done so much better than the Madhesi parties. Go figure.
The Madhesi parties have but one option: become one party or perish.
Good Options For Maoists And Madhesi Parties
A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
Election 2013: The People Have Spoken
Friday, November 22, 2013
Good Options For Maoists And Madhesi Parties
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| Surya TV (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
The way things are shaping up, it might be possible for the NC to form a government that includes the Maoists and the Madhesis. I am simply pointing out the political arithmetic. There is a silver lining to the wide margin defeat of the Maoists. If the margin had been less wide, a NC-UML two party government would have been a foregone conclusion. But because the margins are wide and there was no pre-poll alliance between the NC and the UML, a NC-Maoist-Madhesi government also looks possible.
Or you could form a NC-Maoist government, and give the presidency to Mahantha Thakur and the speakership to the UML. Nembang, anyone?
Sushil Koirala for PM, Narayan Kaji or Mahara for DPM, Mahantha Thakur for president, Nembang for Speaker.
Both sides have to be flexible on the federalism question. I think we might be looking at about four states in the Terai and another four states in the Hills/Mountains. 30 Madhesi parties that have not been able to become one party do not have a moral right to talk about a single Madhesh pradesh, not anymore.
The two Maoists should unite. What will bring them together is a vision that Nepal will be made a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. How many votes you get in a national election will decide how much money you get from the state. And a party will have no other source of income. That agenda should be enough for the Baidya group to stop dreaming of another revolution.
All Madhesi parties should immediately start the exercise of launching a single Madhesi party.
If the two Maoist parties become one, and if the 30 Madhesi parties become one political party, these two parties will be the prime beneficiary of the local and state elections that will be held in perhaps April 2015. They will ride the anti-incumbency wave then. People like Hridayesh Tripathy who lost this election will show up as Chief Ministers perhaps.
That is the best bet for the Maoists and the Madhesis.
The most important lesson though is that the three million Nepalis who have been kicked off the voter list need to be brought back onto that list. That should be the number one gripe of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, and they should do something about it.
It is easy math. There are 30 million people in Nepal. More than half of Nepal is less than 30 years old. Which means roughly half of the population is of voting age. So if there are 15 million Nepalis of voting age, and only 12 million were on the list, that means three million were disenfranchised. And those three million were mostly of the DaMaJaMa background. Which means most of those three million would have voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.
The entire country and all parties have to work to get those three million onto the voter list. It's just wrong to disenfranchise people. In a country where elections are won and lost by a few thousand votes routinely, and often times with a few hundred votes, the impact of kicking three million people off the voter list can not be exaggerated.
A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
Election 2013: The People Have Spoken
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