Friday, May 08, 2009

The President Should Declare An Emergency


Phone Marathon II (2005)
Phone Marathon: Called Up Delhi (2005)

If the parliament will not bring forth a new government - either a majority government or an all party government - by the deadline - tomorrow - there will be but one option left: presidential rule. The president will have to go ahead and declare an emergency.
  • The emergency rule would last six months.
  • No political leader would be arrested.
  • Freedom of speech will stay intact.
  • Right to peaceful assembly will stay intact.
  • After six months the parliament will have the option again to bring forth either a majority government or an all party government.
Three Big Advantages
  • The president gets to run the country. He need not assemble his cabinet from inside the parliament. He can assemble a team of technocrats.
  • The political parties and the parliament get to work on a new constitution, which is what they were elected to do in the first place.
  • The country gets a taste of an executive presidency which is what we should shoot for in a new constitution. We don't need a new government every year. We want a directly elected president who stays in power for four years.
In The News

UML CC meet begins; leadership divided over formation of new govt NepalNews
NA refutes media reports
Sushil wants re-verification of Maoist combatants
'Woman should lead new govt'
New govt unlikely within given time
Envoys call on PM, Koirala
PM's address to the nation (May 04 09)

Nepal's Maoist double-cross














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Thursday, May 07, 2009

Prachanda Messed Up



The right way to sack Katuwal would have been this.
  • Get all parties in power to agree to the idea. But if they don't agree to it, then don't go for it.
  • But if all parties in power would have agreed to it, Prachanda still needed to send that decision to the president.
  • The president then would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration.
  • The cabinet - with all party agreement - could then have sent it back to the president all over again saying they still stand by it.
  • At that point the president would have had no option but to forward the letter to the army chief who would then have been duly sacked.
Prachanda's Two Big Mistakes
  • He did not seek the consensus of his coalition partners.
  • He did not go through the president. He bypassed the president.
Who Apologizes?
  • President Yadav has nothing to apologize for. His job is to protect the constitution, and he did that.
  • Prachanda already apologized by resigning. So there is no need for him to apologize again.
What next?
  • Form a new government.
  • That can be an all party government, or it can be a simple majority government.
  • Having a simple majority government does not mean we will then automatically lack the two thirds majority needed for work on the new constitution.
  • Writing a new constitution is separate from running a government.
Who Will Lead?
  • Technically speaking Prachanda can lead again. Technically speaking Baburam can lead. But politically speaking it makes no sense for the Maoists to lead. They already tried and failed.
  • A new leader from a new party needs to come forth. I see a consensus building around the Madhav Nepal name.
  • The Maoists will have the option to join that government or support it from outside.
  • The UML, the NC, the MJF, the TMDP, and the SP must be part of the new government.
  • The UML should lead. The Maoists have the option to join or not.
First Priority: Law And Order
  • The new government is going to have to domesticate the YCL. That organization may not engage in use of force. Period.
  • The Maoists have a right to peacefully protest, but they are barely one third of the parliament, they don't get to prevent the formation of a new government.
Katuwal
  • I hear he is scheduled to be out within months. That might be the best way to let him go.
  • The Maoists might have tried proving in court instead that he is way past retirement age.
In The News

PM Dahal meets Koirala NepalNews Koirala asked Dahal to cooperate in forming a government of national consensus. Dahal on his part said he would consider the proposal. ...... Dahal also tried to allay fears of NC leadership regarding the controversial videotape containing his speech during a close-door training to PLA commanders one and half years ago. ...... He had headed straight to Koirala residence after attending his party's politburo meeting held at Bhaktapur. ...... NC leaders Sher Bahadur Deuba and Krishna Prasad Sitaula were also present at the meeting.
Prez consults CA chairman on procedure of appointing new PM there is no other way of appointing a PM except taking the issue to the parliament ...... Maoists CA members have disrupted the proceedings of the House for two consecutive days
Maoist politburo for more protests to revert President's move Both the parties need support from Madhesi parties to garner majority for the new government. Madhesi parties have sought consensus on their agendas in return for their support. ..... On Wednesday, caretaker Prime Minister Dahal claimed the new government would also be under his party's leadership.
'UML leadership for unity govt has already been agreed upon' said it's certain that the next government would be led by UML and what is being awaited now is a formal decision of the UML with the nomination of its leader, who will become the Prime Minister. ...... the Maoists should be part of the new coalition, but they cannot take the leadership. ...... Madhesi parties, whose participation or support is a must for the new ruling coalition to take shape, are yet to make their positions clear
Minister Yadav issues 'death threat' against journo
Maoists threaten cadres of other parties in Siraha
Crisis with a Silver Line They have publicly and unequivocally avowed that their ultimate goal remains to convert Nepal into a people’s republic. The ruling coalition partners and opposition parties were deeply worried about it. Excesses of the Young Communist League, a Maoist outfit, have always been a cause of serious concern for other parties and the public. YCL members engage in preventing and disrupting activities of other political parties and in killing and maiming their opponents. ........ the neutrality of the civil service, police and intelligence was being dented by stuffing Maoist loyalists and supporters in senior posts ........ Maoists were trying to undermine the judiciary’s independence by cowing the courts to give verdicts of their liking. The military brass was under enormous pressure to integrate into army ranks the 19,000 Maoist combatants living in the 7 UN-monitored cantonments. ......... Children cannot go to school; the sick cannot go to hospitals; and employees cannot go to their jobs. People are forced to live in dark, because there is power outage of more than 12 hours every day. There is no petrol at the gas station, no running water at the tap, no cooking gas in the store. ......... Investors are looking elsewhere to invest. ..... The dismissal of the army chief was the last straw that broke the patience of UML ....... UML walked out of the government in protest and pulled the crisis’s trigger. ....... But they cannot govern, and the Maoists will make sure of it by churning the streets and by disrupting the house ........ you cannot possibly leave the largest party in the house – they have 238 seats out of 601 -- out of government altogether if you are serious about writing the constitution, whose approval requires a two-thirds majority. .......... if the Maoists have been a problem player in the government, they could prove a nightmare out of it. ........ a government that commands at least a two-thirds majority in the constituent assembly. A government of simple majority should be the last option.

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Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Madhav Nepal Would Be A Great Choice



Madhav Nepal Needs To Make A Move (2007)
Prachanda, Madhav, Devendra (2006)
Madhav Nepal (2006)
Madhav Nepal Out In Open (2006)
Interim President: Madhav Nepal (2006)
Phone Talk With Madhav Nepal, Hridayesh Tripathy (2005)
Maoist, Moriarty, Madhav, Manmohan: Get Behind The 3 Point Program (2005)
Madhav Nepal, Commander Of The Movement (2005)
Email From Madhav Kumar Nepal (2005)

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, NepalImage via Wikipedia

Madhav Nepal Would Be A Great Choice

In The News

Dahal dubs videotape scandal a ploy against peace process; claims Maoist military strength to be much higher NepalNews
'UML set to pick Nepal as coalition leader' CPN (UML) is set to choose Madhav Kumar Nepal as the leader of the next coalition that will form the government ...... "Madhav Kumar Nepal has the ability to bring together different parties. UML is going to pick him unanimously [as the leader of the next coalition]," said Bidhya Devi Bhandari, UML vice-chairperson. She added that two UML leaders - chairman Jhala Nath Khanal and K.P Sharma Oli - are eligible for the post of Prime Minister. ......... a government of national consensus would be formed under the UML's leadership. ....... Unified CPN (Maoist), is showing undemocratic behavior by obstructing the parliament.
Madheshi parties call for consensus govt A joint meeting of Madheshi Janadhikar Forum, Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party organised at Singha Durbar, Wednesday decided to stand by a government of national consensus that could address the needs of the people of Madhesh. ..... The parties will support a party which shows commitment towards fulfilling the agreement of February 28, 2008 with the Madheshi community, MJF vice chairman JP Gupta said. ...... The meeting was organised soon after MJF chairman Upendra Yadav returned form his foreign tour.
Envoys meet PM Dahal, Khanal PM Dahal expressed his commitment to peace process and national consensus, mentioning that he resigned from his post to protect civil supremacy.
PM Dahal holds fence-mending meeting with Khanal In his first political meeting after resignation as Prime Minister, Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal met CPN (UML) chairman Jhala Nath Khanal at the latter's residence in Chhauni Wednesday morning. ..... Khanal said formation of "national consensus government" and constitution-making process were discussed ..... "I found him somewhat agitated and at the same time he expressed his disappointment." ...... Dahal told reporters after the meeting that they agreed to continue the politics of cooperation and consensus not to let the peace process derail. ..... Khanal informed journalists quoting PM Dahal that obstruction in the House would continue until the President admits his mistake and revokes the decision against government action against the army chief. Khanal said that he informed the PM about threats issued by the Maoists in various districts including Ramechhap and Kailali.
Govt formation within deadline unlikely The humiliation of having to resign from the government still afresh in their minds, Maoist leaders and cadres have started taking vengeance against their NC and UML counterparts. ...... Maoists rank and file has been pressurising the party leadership to rather stay in opposition than erode their public image by not being able to implement their policies when in the government. ..... the party will not easily accept to lead the government again even if offered, let alone joining the government under other parties. ....... The NC has agreed to form new government under the leadership of UML. However, these two parties do not have enough seats in the parliament to get a majority. They will be able to form the government only if Madheshi Janadhikar Forum and a few fringe parties support them. ....... Having understood their importance well, the MJF chairman has already put forward conditions to the UML-NC alliance. ....... MJF has covertly expressed interest to lead the future coalition. “It’s a different matter if we get (the post of) Prime Minister, otherwise we don’t need to jeopardize our vote bank by the digressing from our ideological stance,” a close confidant of MJF chairman Yadav quoted the latter as saying. .......... MJF leaders have accused Congress and UML of not having a strong vision about solutions to problems faced by people in Madhesh. The ‘ideological stance’, MJF chairman is indicating is none other than its alliance with the Maoists which the MJF thinks has a better strategy to win the hearts of people in the Terai than NC and UML. ..... The NC and UML’s unofficial proposal to make Madhav Kumar Nepal, the new Prime Minister of Nepal is not likely to materialise simply because of inadequate support on their side. Given the circumstances, MJF chairman Upendra Yadav looks like the most probable candidate to lead the government. The strongest reason behind this is the latent support of the powerful players, Yadav has behind him. ...... speculation is that Indian establishment, which has undeclared but strong influences in the formation and dissolution of governments in Nepal, is also likely to support Yadav as the future Prime Minister
House session obstructed, postponed for Sunday
India stresses on consensus to end ongoing crisis in Nepal, denies hand in toppling Maoist-led govt
Yadav stresses for consensus among political parties Chairman of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum Upendra Yadav has called for consensus and cooperation among all political parties while forming the new government to give a way out of the current turmoil. Talking to media persons upon his arrival at the Tribhuvan International Airport, Yadav said his party is not in a position to claim the leadership of new government. Yadav said his party will make efforts to build consensus among the parties, adding that his party will support whoever can gather majority to form government. MJF has called its parliamentary party meeting after Yadav’s arrival. The party is also scheduled to hold talks with other Terai based parties – Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party to bring out a common voice on Terai issues.
President Yadav's fate to be similar to Gyanendra if he doesn't rectify his move: Bhattarai He also claimed that there is less possibility of the new government being formed anytime soon because the Maoists have already intensified their street protest and struggle in the parliament against the President's move.




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Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?




Is An All Party Government Possible, Desirable?
Worst Case Scenarios
  • Renewed civil war.
  • Failed state.
  • Cambodia.
Bad Case Scenarios
Two Knotty Issues
Solution: Parliamentary Supremacy
  • Attempt an all party government.
  • Form an all party steering committee.
  • Hold full fledged debates/discussions in the parliament on security sector reform and land reform.
  • Pass a law to force all political parties to make their book keeping public.
  • Let the parliament shape the idea of a new army for the country. A bill passed in the parliament would decide as to the size and shape of the future army. It might end up 30,000 strong, about 20,000 from the Nepal Army, about 4,000 from the Maoist Army, and 6,000 from elsewhere. There must be criteria - physical and otherwise - that all soldiers must meet, to be professionally determined.
  • Form an all party Land Reform Commission. All property captured by the Maoists during the 10 years will go under the guardianship of that commission. It would be for a duly elected parliament next year to decide as to what to do with that property. If the Maoists want land reform, they get to shape that land reform bill to be passed by the next parliament.
Who Could Lead An All Party Government?
  • Prachanda is an option.
  • So would be someone else.
Who Would Lead The All Party Steering Committee?
  • Madhav Nepal is an option.
  • So would be someone else.
Appeasement: Not An Option
  • They tried that with Hitler. Let him have a small country, he will leave the rest of Europe alone. Appeasement does not work. That appeasement lead to World War II.
  • Appeasing Prachanda's and the Maoists' dictatorial tendencies is not an option.
  • There can be no compromise on multi-party democracy.
  • Security sector reform is an option: heck, it is desirable. Land reform is an option: heck, it is long overdue. Federalism is a must. The Maoists can have all that.
  • What they can never hope to have is a one party communist republic. There we have to draw the line. The YCL does not get to engage in use of force. (Madman Prachanda, Hindenburg Girija, Youth Communist League: Prachanda's Brown Shirts)
Reality Check
  • But we can not assume the Maoists want an all party government.
  • If all the other parties come together and prove a majority in the parliament, they are the legitimate government. That is how it works. The Maoists don't then have the option to threaten the workers of the other parties in the districts. If they do, the state has to counter them.
  • The non-Maoist parties can not engage in appeasement.
  • All you need is a majority in the parliament to have a government.
  • The Maoists have to show they can sit in the opposition also. They have work to do to show they are up for multi-party democracy and rule of law.


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Options For A New Coalition Government



It is important to form a government of all parties minus the Maoists. They need to be taught a lesson.

If the Maoists then resort to use of physical force in the streets, that physical force has to be countered by the state. It might end up being a clash between the YCL and the Armed Police Force. Hopefully the PLA and the NA stay out of it.

If necessary, Prachanda should be arrested in that scenario. (Comrade Gonzalo Of Peru: A Profile) It can not be legal for you to lead an organization that uses force. You have a right to organize, you have a right to engage in peaceful assembly. But you have no right to incite unlawful uses of force.

Democratic Options (2005)
The Hardliner Democrat Approach
The Bombing Of A Bus

If the option is between renewed civil war and Maoist anarchy, civil war is a better option. And the Maoists will have to take responsibility if there is new bloodshed.

Mistakes

The Nepal Army recruiting 3,000 new soldiers was a mistake. That step was a peace time Dhoramba. That was the feudals wanting to disturb the peace, and the Maoists played into their hands. The Supreme Court saying it was okay for the army to recruit new soldiers shows some foul play might have been involved. Were some justices bribed by the old establishment? But the Maoists don't get to mix the old establishment with the duly elected political parties, many of whose leaders are of middle class backgrounds.

Land Reform

The Maoists and the UML should be able to come up with a just land reform agenda for the country. And if the Maoists don't feel the need to at least take the UML into confidence, it is not land reform they have in mind but dictatorship. That can not be allowed.

Militarists, Maoists, Monotones, Dorambaites, Naxalites (2005)
Militarists Attempting A Doramba Repeat To End Ceasefire (2005)










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Prime Minister Upendra Yadav?







There were two victors in the April 10, 2008 elections: the Maoists, and the MJF. And the MJF is the only political party in the country with a track record of having successfully countered the Maoists.

There is no compromising the rule of law. The Maoists do not get to enage in muscle power. They do not get to engage in a rein of terror.

In The News

Video shows Dahal admitting real strength of PLA not more than 8,000; sharing plans to control army and capture state NepalNews the video which the channel claimed was from January 2, 2008 when the Maoists were an important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala led interim government ....... "We were (PLA's strength) somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000. If we had reported the correct figure of the PLA, then it would then have been reduced to around 4,000."......... "But our party's leadership decided to report PLA strength as 35,000, and thanks to it the PLA's strength is now 20,000 at least," he said smilingly, evoking peels of laughter around him.........."So our strength has actually increased. You and I know the truth, but why should we tell it to others." ...... apart from the PLA, which he said is now already a "regular army", the party has also formed YCL comprising thousands of youths despite various difficulties and "who now add to our strength". ....... The Maoist chairman also revealed that a significant share of the money that will go to "our martyrs" in villages throughout the country and the PLA in cantonments will be used by the party to prepare for revolt and ultimately capture the state. ...... "You all know that if we have enough money in our hands we can prepare a good battle plan. So, the party needs a good amount of money for the revolt," he said...... though the party may appear to have again reached a compromise (with the state and political parties), "but if you look deeply then you will know how seriously the party is preparing for the ultimate revolt". ..... Claiming that PLA combatants are "politically aware", he said even a small number of their entry into NA is enough to establish complete Maoist control over the army.
Maoists warn NC, UML cadres to leave Ramechhap, gun fires kill one in Rolpa
22 parties meeting inconclusive Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, a key component for formation of new government, was absent from the meeting and is unlikely to give its decision until party chairman Upendra Yadav returns from his foreign visit. The party also has laid claimed for the post of prime minister.
Form new government by Saturday: President
SC issues show cause order to president INHURED International filed the case seeking cancellation of the president’s move
Maoists disrupt House proceedings the new government will not be formed until president corrects his action.
Police arrest civil society activists
UNSG saddened by Nepal’s political development
NDF meeting postponed
EU expresses concern over recent political developments
Maoists to launch agitation from House and street



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Monday, May 04, 2009

Lesson For Maoists: Rule Of Law



PrachandaImage via Wikipedia

Prachanda's Procedural Flaw

The Maoist failure to oust Katuwal has not been a failure of the principle of civilian supremacy over the military.

The parliament can impeach the president, but not with one third of the vote, which is what the Maoists have. The parliament can impeach the army chief. The majority government had the option to get the parliament to pass a resolution by majority vote saying the civilian government wanted to oust the army chief. There was no effort made in that direction.

A majority government with unanimous voice could have got rid of Katuwal. But the Maoists did not have the support of any of the coalition partners. At that point the right thing to do for Prachanda was to withdraw his intent to oust Katuwal.

But even if the majority government had unanimously decided to oust Katuwal, the president, as the constitutional chief and the titular head of the army, would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration, then the cabinet would have had the option to resend it, and at that point the president would have had to pass it on to the army chief. But Prachanda not only did not seek support from his coalition partners, he did not feel the need to forward his decision letter to the president to be forwarded to the army chief. He bypassed the president. Calling him up on the phone to inform does not count.

Decision To Resign, A Good One

Prachanda decided to resign instead of possibly facing a vote of no confidence. That was a good one. His party has filed a case against the president in the Supreme Court. That shows a desire to appreciate the rule of law. But the right political move would have been to try and impeach the president. They must know they don't have the numbers. So they did not even try. And if you have already registered a case against the president with the Supreme Court, whey then plan on street protests? Let the law take its course.

Prachanda's Party Failed Prachanda

His party let him down. They put undue pressure on him. He could not resist the pressure from his party to go relentlessly after the army chief. That cost them power.

Katuwal Not The Impediment To Army Integration

Prachanda and the Maoists have falsely assumed that the army chief stands in the way of army integration. The two armies will be integrated after the six biggest parties in the parliament will agree on a formula for integration. And the other parties will not agree on the idea as long as the YCL keeps misbehaving. The YCL has the option to either disband, or become a purely political organization. They can't walk around like Hitler's Brown Shirts. Civilizing the YCL is the homework the Maoists need to do as a party if they want to make progress on the issue of army integration.

Parliamentary Supremacy

On thorny issues like land reform and army integration the best idea would be to let there be full fledged debates and discussions on the topics in the parliament. Party chiefs are too used to usurping the power of the parliament. Open parliamentary debates have to take the place of smoke filled room politics.

India?

India is not the reason all of his coalition partners deserted Prachanda. They deserted him because they kept telling him he does not have their support to oust the army chief, but he did not listen to them, so they deserted him.



Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal

In The News

Maoists to launch agitation from House and street NepalNews
President accepts PM's resignation
Prime Minister Dahal resigns slamming Prez's move
'All-party' meet on Tuesday; Khanal says UML ready to lead new govt
Govt terms prez’s move ‘unconstitutional’
President Yadav defends his move
Maoists to challenge President's move in court; declare protests in streets, parliament



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Sunday, May 03, 2009

Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal



Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, NepalImage via Wikipedia

Jhala Nath Khanal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It is now time to form a new government that would include all parties except the Maoists. Jhala Nath Khanal would be the right person to lead that government.

This is not a Katuwal issue. This is an issue of the Maoists having lost the confidence of the parliament. The Maoist government no longer has majority support. The MJF has to join forces with the UML, and the Sadbhavana. The NC has to support the new government by joining it. The TMLP has to join the new government.

Rule of law is supreme. How to integrate the two armies? Go to rule of law. How to sack or not sack the army chief? Go to rule of law.

In The News

UML, Sadhawana decide to pull out of govt; UML ministers resign NepalNews
Bhattarai claims army firmly behind govt decision; NC ramps up support for no-confidence motion against govt
President unhappy with govt's sack order to Army chief, starts consultations
OHCHR urges parties to maintain restraint
Demonstrations for and against decision to sack army chief
Govt decides to sack CoAS Katawal; Khadka acting chief; Four coalition partners oppose decision
Katawal 'turns down' sack order

Nepali Sadbhavana Party decides to quit gov't Xinhua



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