The State Of Emergency Expires At The End Of April

The general assumption is the state of emergency expires at the end of the month, or at least that is what the constitution says. If it is allowed to happen, it will be to the king's credit. He has been seen as stretching some of the articles of the 1990 constitution. But if he complies with this one, it will be to his credit. If he does not, he reinforces his image of an autocrat fishing in the murky waters of a civil war to aggrandize his personal power base.

After the embarking of the UN monitoring of human rights, this lifting of the emergency will be the second bigget, positive news since 2/1.

Both steps will create space for both peace and democracy. The democrats will have ample space to try and retake the helm after that.

The best thing the king can do for himself, the monarchy, the country and democracy is to comply. I hope he exhibits the tact to do so.

On another note, the Prachanda-Baburam fissure seems to be real and widening. Looks like Prachanda is trying to exapand and consolidate his power base and Baburam is understandably unhappy. The good news is Baburam continues to be relevant and has enough leeway that he feels comfortable penning a letter of dissent that makes it to the public. And the letter gives a pretty good picture of the internal politics among the senior Maoists.

This fissure might end up being the third piece of good news, not because the Maoists are now weaker, but because it shows there is still some democratic, dissenting debate possible among the senior Maoists. That gives room for flexibility. That leaves room for peace talks, this time with UN involvement.

The best thing the king can do: lift the emergency. The best thing the Maoists can do: cooperate fully with the UN monitors, something they asked for.

In The News

• India to resume arms supplies: Nepal King Hindustan Times ..... the monarch claimed New Delhi has promised to resume arms supplies to Kathmandu ...... Sikri made no mention of India's assurance on resuming the arms supplies ...... Sikri quoted Gyanendra as telling Manmohan Singh that the political process in Nepal would be restored "as early as possible".
• Nepal should restore democracy: Manmohan Singh :Team India, India
• What will the King do next?Deccan Herald, India On May 1 — exactly a week later — the three-month state of emergency clamped by the king when he sacked the government of prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and assumed absolute power on February 1 will expire. The question on everyone’s lips is, what will the monarch, a master tactician and planner, do next? ...... he can lift emergency for a short period, even a day, and re-impose it on his own; he can try to give it some semblance of legality by getting a second stint of emergency approved by Parliament; or he can cobble together a new government that will, however, remain loyal to him..... The king can of course convene the upper house — National Assembly — and try to have it endorse an extension of emergency but it will be an uphill task. ....... “There is no provision for the king to head the government. Also, emergency can be imposed only on the recommendation of the prime minister who then has to get it endorsed by Parliament. But the king imposed emergency after dismissing the PM.” ..... likely to proceed exactly as he is now, doing exactly as he pleases.
• India may end arms embargo on NepalEconomic Times, India ..... the Prime Minister and Gyanendra deliberated on the situation in Nepal in a “frank and cordial” manner ..... said his “commitment to multi-party democracy, human rights and rule of law is total and unflinching”.
• Comrade Expresses Note Of Dissent United We Blog severe actions have been taken against Dr Baburam Bhattarai, the face of the party. He is no longer the politburo member. He is not he coordinator of the political front of the party...... In a recent letter addressed to his Chairman, Dr Bhattarai clearly expresses his displeasure and disagreement with Prachanda’s intention of consolidating the power i.e. becoming the chief of all three wings: Party, Guerillas and the Front.

The King Will Only Respond To Internal Pressure

His external isolation is total. And he sounds almost incoherent in his Time magazine interview. He has been feeling the heat. But he keeps on keeping on.

The solution is obvious: a new constitution. But first, restore all fundamental rights. But he will not do it. What could tip the balance? I think internal pressure. People getting out into the streets in tens of thousands. That is what. He keeps thinking or at least trying to create the impression "the people" are on his side. He keeps wanting to take the people along with him. And show massive dissidence will do what no international pressure will.

Two of the biggest questions for now, I think, are: (1) How fast will the UN rights monitors get to work and how much will they be able to enage the two warring forces? (2) Will the emergency be lifted at the end of April?

This regime's signature act has been vigilanteism, in the form of "village defense committees" and the seemingly "constitutional" bodies like the RCCC, which is also vigilanteism by other means.

In The News

• India blinks, Natwar meets Nepal king Times of India, India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is due to meet the king on Saturday, on the sidelines of the Afro-Asian summit.... While the king has freed former PMs G P Koirala and Sher Bahadur Deuba, India has been asking for the release of UML chief Madhav Nepal. India has also asked for the lifting of the emergency and media censorship. ..... For his part, the king "outlined the steps he proposed to take soon to lift the Emergency and restore democratic processes in Nepal"...... the king has won the battle.
  
• 'Not talking to Nepal harmful for India' Times of India .... a government that has identified Left wing extremism as the biggest security threat ...... The re-engagement of Gyanendra will also serve other purposes. It will help India gauge exactly how he means to go forward ...... merely fighting Maoists is not his intention; he wants to revert back to the old absolute monarchy system. ...... He has also achieved minor successes recently, having fended off a United Nations rapporteur on human rights in Nepal.
  
• India, Nepal should return to consultation process: PM Outlookindia.com the Prime Minister said "If I get an opportunity, I will meet the King and convey India's concerns" ..... Nepal is the "closest" neighbour .... The King... proposed to .. soon ..lift the emergency and restore democratic process in the Kingdom..... was committed to returning rule to an elected government although he did not provide a timeframe
  
• Three Nepalese lawyers taken off flight to Delhi:- Webindia123 Laxman Prasad Arryal ... Shambhu Thapa ...Bhimarjun Acharya .... Though they were eventually allowed to board the aircraft, it did not take off as per schedule. Passengers waited for over an hour. Then the three men were asked to get off.
  
• Nepal monarch defends move to seize power Hindustan Times, India .... insurgency-wracked country was on the "edge of a precipice" .... an escalating communist insurgency, which he had blamed on a corrupt government ..... "Terrorism and the self-induced inability of the political parties and various governments to rise to the challenge
• An ex-minister in Nepal grilled like this United We Blog “My Lord. The former minister who is present in front of you now has done corruption ... By not answering commission’s questions, he is obstructing our work. He is not cooperating with us. His intention is not right. He only talks nonsense. If we let him go free, proof will be lost. ..... we should put him in detention for seven days and continue investigation.” ..... scolded the former minister in the room full of media persons and other people in uncivilized manner...... “Oh..so the commission is unconstitutional? Then [to officials] take him and put him behind bar.”
  
• Former PM In Nepal waits to be arrested United We Blog Commission summoned Deuba ordering him to appear by yesterday evening. That didn’t happen. And, as of now (11:00 AM GMT), arrest also didn’t happen. Why? No one knows ..... a new notice was pasted on his home giving him “bato ko myad” (time for travelling from house). His house is in Dadheldura, a far western district of Nepal. The ‘bato ko myad’ depends on how one travels i.e. by feet or by bus or by plane.
  
• It happens only in Nepal! United We Blog the constitution does not allow the king to form such an anti-graft body..... we people should form similar anti-corruption panel and begin probe into Ramesh Nath Pandey, Dan Bahadur Shahi, and king’s henchmen who did corruption during the Panchayati time..... is against the principle of natural justice to form such commission which enjoys authority of investigation, prosecution and punishment....... if the king is commited to curb corruption, will he make the expences of the palace. Why does not he make public the expenses of the palace and the Royal Nepalese Army? Why does not the same RCCC investigate the money that the Deuba-cabinet gave to Helen Shah, a relative of the king?
  
• Internally displaced in Nepal overlooked, neglected, UN Expert ... ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland A public report will be presented to the next United Nations Commission on Human Rights, in Geneva, in March 2006..... the numbers of IDPs in the country are far greater than the roughly 8,000 IDPs quoted by the Government as the official nationwide figure. A large majority of IDPs have not been registered by the authorities because of several factors, including a restrictive registration process, a general fear of IDPs to declare themselves and the movement of many conflict-induced displaced persons across the border into India...... reprisals by the Royal Nepal Army for allegedly providing food or shelter to Maoists (even when this was provided under duress) .....IDPs at risk of increased female prostitution, bonded labour resulting from high debts, increasing child labour, and loss of voting and electoral rights ..... Respect the basic principles of international humanitarian law, in particular the fundamental distinction between combatants and non-combatants and common article 3 of the Geneva Conventions .... (More)
  
• Nepal Bracing For UN Human Rights Monitors Inter Press Service (subscription) Nepal is bracing for an invasion by international human rights monitors in the wake of strong condemnations of its rights record at the 61st session of the U.N. Human Rights Commission in Geneva ..... several dozen international rights monitors under the aegis of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) are expected to arrive shortly to start a monitoring mission ...... ''The U.N.'s goal is to set up regional field offices to ensure rapid responses to violations reports, and to have an advance team of human rights monitors in Nepal by early May" ..... ''It shows the international community will not tolerate any more rights abuses.'' .... The agenda 19 resolution strongly decries the abolishment of democracy and suspension of civil and political freedoms, and urges the royal regime to restore those rights immediately. ..... Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions states that ''persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed 'hors de combat' by sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, colour, religion or faith, sex, birth or wealth, or any other similar criteria''. ...... In a cleverly executed diplomatic move, the international community dangled the threat of the more stringent agenda nine resolution ..... would put it in the league of pariah nations like Burma. .... Though the agenda 19 item passed on Wednesday does not appoint a special rapporteur, all other provisions of monitoring and technical assistance are similar to agenda nine...... ''Full, robust and rapid deployment of the necessary mission is essential...from the outset. For political and financial reasons, it will be difficult to expand it at a later stage, and gradual deployment will enable human rights violators and their allies to develop tactics and strategies to impede the mission" ..... ''Last year, they took us at face value. But we did not implement the promises in sincerity ..... This year's resolution shows that our government has lost credibility and the U.N. is intent on making sure that we implement all resolutions with sincerity.'' ...... ''this is Arbour's first big project after being appointed the High Commissioner for Human Rights last year.'' .... ''This is her baby and she will see to it that the monitoring mission is a success. The Nepal government and Maoists will have little room to maneuver.''

"Urgent: Disappearance Of My Father" by Sarahana Shrestha

(To be clear, my father is neither political nor a human rights advocate. The last time
I spoke to him, like all of my friends'parents, he was telling me why the king should be supported).

At Samudaya

Sorry to have mass-mailed. Please help me spread the word to media contacts, etc.

Just got this from my brother:

URGENT: Kidnapping and Disappearances In The Hands Of Armed Forces In Nepal.

On Thursday, 21st April 2005, my father Mr. Gyanendra Das Shrestha was kidnapped from
his office Baneshwor Bazaar, New Baneshwor, by a group of men who clamied to be members of
the Royal Nepal Army. Mr. Shrestha was taken into the house of Prabha Manandhar in the
same compound at around 11:30 AM. Since then, the where abouts of Mr. Shrestha has not
been known and the people guarding the house of Prabha Manandhar have denied that Mr.
Shrestha has come into that area at all. Later that evening, his personal secretary who was
witnessed Mr. Shrestha being taken in the house was also taken inside the same house. There,
a group of men who were dressed in civil clothes and armed with automatic machine guns
threatened and interrogated them for more than 1 hour.

When I myself went to the house at around 8PM to investigate the situation two people who
were staying there as security guards in civil clothes threatened me. After I refused to go inside
the house they said, “Nobody called Mr. Gyanendra Das Shrestha has come here today.
I don’t work for anybody, any company or any organization. If you don’t leave now
it won’t be good for you.”

Today, 22nd April 2005, it has been over 22 hours since people who claimed to be RNA took
Mr. Gyanendra Das Shrestha into Prabha Manandher’s house. If the RNA has taken into
custody Mr. Shrestha, then I would like to urge them to immediately make public where they
have taken him and for what reason(s) they have done this. The people armed with machine
guns inside Prabha Manadhar’s house who kidnapped Mr. Shreshta have not said they are the
army. If those people with guns are not from RNA, then who are they? And if they are from
RNA, then why have they denied the fact that Mr. Gyanendra Das Shrestha was taken into that
house on Thursday morning?

I would like to plead to my friends, colleagues and fellow journalists working the media to make
this “act of disappearance” a public knowledge and question what is happening in this situation
to not only help find information not only about Mr. Gyanendra Das Shrestha and many others
who have fallen victim of similar situations, but also to help prevent incidents like these
happening to others in the future. I look forward to your solidarity against “acts of
disappearances in the hands of armed forces” in Nepal.

Sincerely,

Editor, WAVE
www.wavemag.com.np
Himalmedia P. Ltd

(Sarahana Shrestha has been the dynamo behind Samudaya.org and she has been instrumental with
the Dinesh Prasain tour. She sent this out in a second email. Below.)

My father has had a problem with her for a while now. She is the owner of the space he leased
to create a bazaar. She has not let him collect much rent from the storekeepers so far (this has
gone on for a few years already, I believe they are in a lawsuit).

From what I know she is the daughter of one of the former ambassadors to UK or something.
And according to my brother, the day before his disappearance, what appeared to be a body
wrapped in cloth was taken out from her house and into an army jeep. It was later reported
that a Maoist had been killed in New Baneshwor. My suspicion when I heard this was that she
had fabricated the story and that the person wasprobably not a Maoist at all, if it was a body
in the first place. From all I have heard, she appears to besomewhat of a nut case.

My brother is sending out a press release and going to meet with everyone possible. This is really
confusing. My father is neither political nor a human rights advocate. In fact, he is a supporter of
the King. I believe the circumstance is being misused against him.

thanks! I will send out more info as it becomes available.

Action

To: Ambassador Moriarty (Urgent --- disappearance incident)

Your Excellency.

From one of your media interviews, I got the
impression that you have been actively involved in
resolving individual cases of human rights abuse and
disappearances through your private audiences with the
king and the army top brass.

I would like to draw your attention to this recent
case that involves the non-political father of a
friend of mine. So far it looks to be the case where a
personal vendetta might have been acted out by perhaps
bribing some army personnel, though other
possibilities remain.

Thank you.

"Urgent: Disappearance Of My Father" by Sarahana
Shrestha
http://demrepubnepal.blogspot.com/2005/04/urgent-disappearance-of-my-father-by.html

Positive Resolution: Said person released.....

“There is too much pressure regarding yesterday’s case. if you can stall
them from your side, I will stall things from here. today vehicles from
different places have come to the location to inquire about it .”

In The News

• NEPAL: Tuberculosis still a public health menace Reuters AlertNet, UK
• Political Prisoners Arrested in Nepal Guardian, UK
• Police drag former Nepalese minister from his home Malaysia Star
• Nepal says plans to restore democracy soon Reuters AlertNet, UK
• India, Nepal ready to bury the hatchet?:- Webindia123
• Asia ; Nepal FM defends power-grab, king readies to woo Asia ... Keralanext
• Former minister arrested in Nepal BBC News, UK
• Pro-democracy leader in Nepal arrested by royal commission United We Blog
• UN official to monitor torture cases in Nepal Hindustan Times, India
• Guerrillas continue attacking schools in Nepal Xinhua, China
• 'SIMI active in Nepal' Times of India, India
• Nepal's Government Says Local Elections Will Be Free and Fair Bloomberg
• ‘Nepal wants democracy restored’ Daily Times Nepal’s Supreme Court has ordered the government to explain a ban on private radio news broadcasts in the first legal challenge to censorship imposed after King Gyanendra seized power .... court has reportedly asked the government to reply within two weeks
  
• Nepal says plans to restore democracy soon Reuters AlertNet
• India, Nepal try to mend fences The Statesman Nepal has agreed to allow observers from the office of the UNHRC to monitor the human rights situation in the kingdom for two years. It has also agreed to allow a special representative of UN Secretary-General Mr Kofi Annan to assess the internal displacement in the country caused by the nine-year-old escalating Maoist insurgency and allow a UN rapporteur for torture to investigate allegations and incidents of torture, both by security forces and Communist guerrillas, with access to all detainees..... Spared from Agenda 9, Nepal is on Agenda 19, to which all the 53 members of the UNHRC unanimously agreed last night. It means the countries agree that Nepal has a human rights problem, but one that can be resolved with technical support from the international community. ...... “We have a UN High Commissioner for Refugees for almost a decade now. We welcome technical support since it would mean strengthening our institutions. For instance, Nepal’s national Human Rights Commission doesn’t have a sufficient number of computers.” ..... Fresh communication channels having opened up between India and Nepal, a rapprochement could be on the cards.
  
• Amnesty claims Nepal has detained more than 3,000 political ... eTaiwan News, Taiwan the torture of some prisoners included "being kicked and beaten with sticks, doused with cold water, forced to spend a long time in stress positions and being denied food and water."
• Nepal: Human rights abuses escalate under the state of emergency ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland the human rights situation in Nepal continues to deteriorate while the conflict escalates .... information is being passed on by those human rights activists and journalists who are finding ways to operate and the picture that is emerging is deeply troubling. .... Pandey, stressed that restrictions under the state of emergency are being "continually relaxed", a similar statement to that made by the King .... government's actions over the last two months directly contradict this claim, as many fundamental rights remain suspended; mass arrests continue; media censorship tightens; and the constitution and rule of law is further undermined ..... more than 3,000 people have been arrested since 1 February ..... the rate of arrest increased dramatically in March .... more than 300 prisoners estimated to be held illegally in army barracks ..... Amnesty International has received detailed reports of torture of political party members detained in army barracks ..... journalists in the districts who face the greatest risk ..... in recent weeks the press have become increasingly bold in reporting on security force actions, Maoist activities, political protests and international criticism of the Nepal government. It appears that the Nepali media will not accept being silenced....... Breaking with the precedent set during the 2001-2002 state of emergency, throughout February and March the Supreme Court refused to hear writs related to non-suspended articles of the Constitution ..... some detainees arrested under the PSA, which allows for preventive detention for 90 days, are having their status illegally converted to detention under the 2004 Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Control and Punishment) Ordinance (TADO), which allows for preventive detention for up to one year..... "Justice Sector Coordination Committees" that bring judges together with police, lawyers and civil society have been established ...... he stated that the judiciary’s response to the crisis should be one "of respectful deference to executive wisdom". Such apparent partially from the Chief Justice ..... "intensified military offensive.... may be underway........ Bizarrely, the RNA has also reported mass surrenders of Maoist cadres..... While the stated aim of the mobs was to wipe out local Maoists and Maoist supporters, it is reported that most of the communities attacked were landless labourers...... the apparent support provided by the security forces and authorities to the vigilantes. .. local people were forced to participate in the violence by the security forces.. some members of the mob were security forces personnel in plain clothes ..... on 30 March members of a self-styled "Maoist retaliation committee" tortured and later killed Ramkishore Chamar of Somani VDC, Nawalparasi district. Ramkishore allegedly had his hand cut off and was forced to eat part of it, before being shot and killed a few days later...... a wider strategy by the authorities to develop "village defence forces" - armed groups of local people who would help fight the Maoists ...... local residents were summoned to a RNA barrack near Kathmandu and ordered by army personnel to form a local village defence force. ...... security forces continue to kill civilians, including children ..... Local people continue to be threatened by Maoists to comply with their demands, as well as by security forces to resist them......1 April the RNA Kathmandu valley commander, Dilip Karki, warned that stern action would be taken against businessmen who give donations to the Maoists in response to extortion demands..... An unfortunate result of the restrictions placed on the activities of human rights defenders and journalists is that human rights abuses by Maoists remain largely uninvestigated and unreported. This only increases the impunity with which Maoist cadres can terrorise local civilian populations....... on 26 February Subodh Pyakurel, Chairperson of INSEC, Nepal’s largest human rights NGO, was prevented from travelling to Nepalganj, where he was due to lead a human rights training for security force personnel. This was despite being told by officials in the RNA and Ministry of Home Affairs that he would be able to travel..... on 4 March NHRC Commissioner Sushil Pyakurel was turned back from Kathmandu airport when he attempted to lead an NHRC mission to investigate the mob violence in Kapilvastu...... The loss of independence and credibility of the NHRC is now a very real concern and one to which the international community must be alert....... This international mission will monitor and report on abuses by both sides to the conflict and will establish offices across the country. Such a presence is urgently required and must now be deployed rapidly and in full. The security forces and the Maoists must cooperate in every way with this new presence, as they have both promised to do..... it is vital that the international community does not become complacent, but stays alert to the very grave human rights situation in Nepal. The international community must act in coordination to ensure that every pressure is placed on the government of Nepal to restore full rights and freedoms to the Nepali people and on both parties to respect human rights and end impunity for abuses.
• The challenge of restoring democracy in Nepal ReliefWeb (press release) urges the Nepal government to immediately restore democracy, civil liberties, withdraw the state of emergency, release all political detainees, journalists and human rights workers,to end all kinds of restrictions on the press and ensure autonomy to the National Human Rights Commission ..... called on the Maoists to abide by the international humanitarian laws..... Fossils from the one party Panchayat system, such as Tusli Giri ..... the King, who runs many businesses, and many people in the Royal family who have been involved in massive corruption do not appear to be an issue for the RCCC. After all, it was set up to silence all forms of dissent and therefore, even the Supreme Court judges were brought under its purview ...... On 17 March 2005, King Gyanendra established a high-level nine-member Human Rights Committee headed by the Attorney General to undermine the NHRC...... Justice Hari Prasad Sharma supported the coup as an attempt “to rectify bad governance, eradicate corruption and instill transparent public life” ..... King Gyanendra has no interest to respect human rights and democratic freedoms. ...... In order to evade a country resolution at the 60th session of the Commission on Human Rights, the government of Nepal announced 25-point commitments on human rights on 26 March 2004. But not a single comittment has been respected...... The emergency expires on 30 April 2005. King Gyanendra has very limited options - either extend the emergency through another illegal ordinance, revive the Raj Parishad, Royal Council, in the absence of the Pratitinidi Sabha, the House of Representatives, to justify the illegal measures or cobble up a government with the democratic forces loyal to him..... If the troika does support the charade to look for a way out for not confronting the tyrant, it will have devastating effects on Nepal. There is no military solution to the Maoists crisis. The involvement of the democratic forces for resolving the Maoist crisis is indispensable and their support cannot be obtained under dictatorship and tyranny of King Gyanendra........ persuasions must be accompanied by measures which will force King Gyanendra to listen to international community ..... Gyanendra will continue to exploit the undecisiveness of the troika and will not relent under the pressure of countries like Denmark and Switzerland alone.
  
• Analysis: Nepal must not be left alone Washington Times An upsurge in attacks by Maoist rebels in recent weeks has coincided with the monarchy's crackdown on civil liberties ..... With an estimated 10 killings a day, Nepal is home to Asia's deadliest conflict.... a no-party state that has decimated democracy, kills people at will in the countryside (and) forbids freedom of expression .....the Maoists, estimated to number between 10,000 and 15,000 ...... Experts say the king has boosted the Maoists by crushing democratic institutions and the media..... "There is a real danger that war crimes in Nepal will spiral out of control." .... Analysts say because the monarchy and the Maoists lack a clear strategy, third-party intervention is vital to diffuse tension ..... a failing anti-insurgency strategy...... "Imperfect democracy in Nepal is preferable to no democracy" ..... "What the king has done is fundamentally unsustainable," Norris said. "He cannot take the football when things don't turn out his way. Now he'll have to recognize that he has made grievous errors or the dynamic on the ground will change rapidly ... for the worse."
• Political figures set free in Nepal NEWS.com.au, Australia ...61 political prisoners, including former deputy premier Bharat Mohan Adhikari ... Adhikari had immediately demanded that political parties forge an alliance to fight for democracy.... demanded the release of all other political detainees, including NCP-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal.
• Nepal frees 61 political detainees Sify, India
• A Strategy Of Failure Outlookindia.com Two and half months later, with emergency still in force, there is little sign of improvement...... most of the present regime's policy assumptions are flawed and, consequently, point towards a continued future of violence and conflict..... the traditional ruling elite and the business and industrial lobby support the king's actions and point to the relative quiet of Kathmandu streets, the coup and the emergency have not gone down well among the majority .... Militarily, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) and the other security services are still in a defensive mode, allowing the Maoists to seize the initiative at will. Recent military 'successes', therefore, are nothing more than a repulsion of Maoist attacks, and are not offensive operations in their true sense.... Nepal's political parties have little popular appeal at this point in time. Support for the parties is practically confined to their activists and partisan civil society groups. The population at large remains indifferent to their plight. ..... If the Royal regime makes serious missteps and fails to provide a general impression of progress, that window will close fast. That can be seen to be happening now....... The king's appointment of hardline Panchayat elements in his cabinet, the decision to revive hated Panchayat-era zonal commissioners, the campaign against democratic politicians through selective use of the Royal Corruption Control Commission, and efforts to constrict the role of the National Human Rights Commission by creating another parallel human rights body are all indicative of a vindictive approach towards political parties and civil society...... But reviving Panchayat era politicians and institutions has inevitably created the impression that the king is moving beyond his stated aim of establishing peace and strengthening democracy...... as public support for their protests remain lacklustre, the parties will be forced to re-think strategy ...... "they have actually come off better than the Palace in the eyes of the international community." ...... Almost all the party leaders realise that striking an operational deal with the Maoists could spell doom since that will mean the Maoists will have hijacked the political opposition to the Royal regime from the parties' hands...... After February 1, the Maoists have been very active both in the military and political sphere..... There seems to be a policy tussle at the top rungs of the leadership ...... Recruitment and financial resources, already drying up before the coup, may have worsened in recent months ....... the Maoists do want a peace interregnum to shore up their organization and finances, but are caught in their own rhetoric....... the most obvious aspect of security forces deployment was that they were guarding their own bases and perimeters. Offensive operations are rare, if any ...... the strategy is also handicapped by the lack of a hearts and minds campaign as well as a political component ...... The usual military modus operandi is to use helicopter gunship with dumb bombs that cause more collateral damage than Maoist kills....... In recent weeks, the RNA has used two strategies to counter growing perceptions of its failure: it has made strong attempts to fan rumours of an imminent split in the Maoist ranks, and it has also portrayed recent Maoist attacks as 'victories' for the RNA. Both are misleading....the Khara operation highlighted that it is the Maoists who still hold the initiative. They choose the place and timing of battle rather than the RNA. And despite being unable to overrun the RNA base in Khara, the Maoists did have the satisfaction of knowing that they successfully probed and tested the RNA's defensive capabilities and tactics. Prachanda himself made this clear. Acknowledging losses on the Maoist side, he said on April 12, "the two-day Khara campaign has provided valuable experiences and lessons and will help in taking the war to a new level." ......no important power is willing to antagonize India over a marginal country like Nepal.
  
• Nepal’s war without end Open Democracy Almost all major studies conducted since the insurgency began in February 1996 – from the International Crisis Group (ICG) to UN visitors and parties to the conflict themselves – share two conclusions: that the root of Nepal’s crisis is socio-political rather than ideological, and that there is no military solution.... suggesting an alliance of all political forces and the abolition of the monarchy. But their spokesperson has indicated that there is room for negotiation....... Politically, the rebels can’t be expected to abandon their rebellion and surrender their arms, while the king can’t be expected to surrender his own future by conceding a constituent assembly that is likely to draft a republican constitution .... Militarily, each side admits the impossibility of complete victory yet neither will envisage giving up the struggle. King Gyanendra’s new promise of a fight to the end makes a break in the patter unlikely...... the path beyond war seems clearly to lie in the democratic drafting of a new constitution to be approved by popular mandate.......
  
• Nepal says plans to restore democracy soon Reuters AlertNet