Showing posts with label nepal election 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nepal election 2013. Show all posts

Thursday, November 21, 2013

A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML

Looks like the NC and the UML are on their way to forming a two party government. That will be interesting to watch. The two are neck and neck right now. So there's no telling who will be Prime Minister.

But the two parties will not get a two thirds majority. And so that leaves plenty of room for the identity federalists to have a say on the question. The two sides of the debate should fully express themselves, and then they should forge a compromise.

It would be best for the peace process if the NC and the UML acted generous and elected Prachanda as the president. Or they might go ahead and give Ram Baran Yadav another term! If the PM and DPM will be Pahadi, might as well have a Madhesi president.

Local and state elections have to be held by April 2015. If the Maoists and the Madhesi parties do their homework and learn their lessons, the electoral pendulum might swing their way then.

What homework can they do?

Prachanda and the Maoists to not have the option to get out of the process now. In that direction lies a dead end. They should continue to be part of the process. It is true that the status quoists in the bureaucracy and the judiciary have been staunchly against the identity federalists, and messing up with the list of voters was one rabbit they pulled out of the hat. The Maoists and the Madhesi parties might still have lost, but the margin of loss would not have been so dramatic.

Hridayesh Tripathy's radically gerrymandered electoral district is proof the Election Commission is status quoist.

There is still a stark need for a Truth And Reconciliation Commission so we can put the Civil War firmly behind us. That is necessary work.

The two Maoist parties should unite. And the recipe for that unity would be an attempt to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded political parties. That would be a welcome attempt at classlessness. That move would turn Nepal into the top democracy on the planet, that also would signal that there is no more revolution in the future, there are only elections.

All the Madhesi parties should become one political party. To sing the song of One Madhesh, One Pradesh is hypocritical when you are split up into 30 different parties. And the way to do that is to organize a unity convention. If this move is made, that unified Madhesi party will do well in elections that will surely take place in over a year. That is not far.

The most important task right now is to give the country a constitution within a year. To that end all political parties must work, winners and losers alike. Electoral tally aside we are all winners. The country is about to get a legislative and an executive. The political vacuum is about to go away.

It is to be seen if Sushil Koirala or Jhalanath Khanal becomes Prime Minister. The two get the PM and the DPM and the cabinet. It would be generous to give the presidency to Prachanda or to Mahantha Thakur. That would make constitution making smoother. Because you still need a two thirds majority for the sticky issues. It would be smart for Prachanda to propose Mahantha Thakur's name. In a democracy, the majority rules, but it does not get to rub the nose of the minority in the dust.

I have a feeling we might be headed towards four states each in the Terai and the Hills. There is a danger the NC and the UML might overplay their hands and misread their simple majority for a two thirds majority, and we might end up seeing street action. That would be unfortunate. Compromise has to be the name of the game. Neither side will get all it wants. That knowledge has to be the starting point of the negotiations.

Also give six of the 26 nominated seats to the Baidya Maoists. That was a profound idea Prachanda came up with before the elections. That would be a small price to pay to keep the two Maoists part of the process.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Election 2013: The People Have Spoken

English: Election logo of Nepali Congress.
English: Election logo of Nepali Congress. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
One can already see the outlines of the election results.

  1. There has been an anti-incumbency wave against the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, but that does not explain their full defeat. Two and a half million people have been disenfranchised. Those were people who would have mostly voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties. 
  2. The Nepali Congress and the UML have won rather decisively. But this is not a mandate against federalism. This is more a mandate for peace, law and order, the democratic process, and normalcy. And this is not any clear mandate against the identity based federalism that the Maoists and the Madhesis have been known for. The NC and the UML do not have even a simple majority, let alone a two thirds majority. 
  3. A coalition of non-Maoist parties will likely come into power. That might include Madhesi parties. 
  4. On the contentious issue of federalism the mandate is no different from what it was in the last constituent assembly, that the two sides need to work together and forge some sort of a compromise. Neither a purely identity based federalism nor a purely geographic federalism is in the cards. 
  5. There has been no conspiracy. The Maoists might still have lost, but their wide loss is due to the disenfranchisement of 2.5 million voters, the anti-incumbency factor, and the people saying law and order and the economy are higher priority to them than federalism. 
  6. The Maoist split hurt them big time. I am surprised the UML split has not been hurtful. 
  7. The Madhesi parties have been punished for their numerous splits as predicted. But they still stand a strong chance of going back to power. The NC and the UML don't seem to have the numbers. Sadly the Madhesi parties might not unite even after this clear defeat.  
  8. The Maoists and the Madhesi parties will likely do better on the indirect election side. 
  9. One hopes for a new constitution by the end of 2014. Nepal needs local elections and state elections right after that. 
  10. Prachanda should be elected president. That way it would be okay to keep the Maoists out of power. What are we looking at? Sushil Koirala for PM? KP Oli for DPM? Will Gagan Thapa end up in the cabinet?

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