Showing posts with label Baidya. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baidya. Show all posts

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Three Governments In Four Years

Prachanda Portrait
Prachanda Portrait (Photo credit: izahorsky)
Total Seats: 601
Nepali Congress 214
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26 (Give 10 to the Baidya group)

NC (214) + Maoist (94) = 308
UML (205) + Maoist (94) + Madhesi parties (23) = 322
NC (214) + UML (205) = 419
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + NC
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + UML
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + NC
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + UML

Political arithmetic shows the Maoists could come into power at least six different ways. In several such scenarios the Maoists could even be leading the government. Nepal has a tendency to get a new government every year. If this parliament is to last four years and the government changes every year, the Maoists could be in power for two of the four years. That is a distinct possibility.

Many Maoist, Madhesi top guns lose in Nepal poll
Splits, hunger for power behind Madhesi parties´ poor show

चुनावी एकीकरणका लागि सद्भावनाको वार्ता टोली
The crumbling clan
3 ex-PMs, over 45 ministers contesting polls from eastern region
Many party central leaders join Mahato's SP
Mahat, Bhattarai engage in twitter war
'Intra-party rift may result in loss in Madhes'
NC to go for 7-province model with 3 in Tarai
NC to accept donation for polls only through banks
Army's Rs 288m deposits at high risk
TMDP leader found dead under mysterious circumstances

Facts and fiction
Madhesi parties drop 'One Madhes one pradesh'

एमाओवादीको दाबी- तराई बढाउने पहाडमा नगुमाउने
एमाले मतदाता केन्द्रित अभियानमा
कोइरालाको विशिष्ट 'प्रोटोकल'
कोइराला र देउवा गुट भेलामा
जनमत हाम्रै पक्षमा : कांग्रेस
Internet penetration reaches 26.1 percent
UCPN (M) ‘at low ebb’ since last CA polls
Fireside with K P Sharma Oli - August 19, 2013
Madhes hold, candidate pick ‘key to NC poll win’

Madhesi messiahs
MPRF-D to go for adjustment with TMDP
पूर्व सभासद लक्ष्मण मेहता सद्भावनामा प्रवेश
एकीकरणको नाममा राजनीतिक प्रोपोगण्डा - भरतविमल यादव (वरिष्ठ नेता मधेशी जनअधिकार फोरम, नेपाल)
अध्यक्षहरू नै एकीकरणका बाधक छन् - प्रमोद प्रसाद गुप्ता (महासचिव राष्ट्रिय मधेश समाजवादी पार्टी)
नेसपा (आ.)का कार्यवाहक अध्यक्ष सदभावनामा
मधेशको सशस्त्र आन्दोलनलाई बदनाम गराउन खोजिएको छ -रामलोचन ठाकुर( स्वामीजी) ( संघीय मधेशी मोर्चाका संयोजक तथा जनतान्त्रिक तराई मधेश मुक्ति टाइर्टसका राष्ट्रिय अध्यक्ष
राजनीतिक निकासका लागि संघीय सद्भावनाको अभियान
मधेशप्रति एमाले इमान्दार छैन : महासेठ
Yahoo Tops Google for U.S Web Traffic in July, ComScore Says
Author of fake video must apologise to Amitabh Bachchan: Narendra Modi
China accused of incursion in India's Arunachal Pradesh
Author of fake Narendra Modi video apologises to Amitabh Bachchan
रवीन्द्र अधिकारी र गगन थापासँग-17.08.13
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Friday, November 22, 2013

Good Options For Maoists And Madhesi Parties

Surya TV
Surya TV (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Getting Nepal a new constitution before 2014 is over is the most important task at hand. All other issues are secondary. Country before party, now and always. That has to be the goal of the NC and the UML. That also has to be the goal of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

The way things are shaping up, it might be possible for the NC to form a government that includes the Maoists and the Madhesis. I am simply pointing out the political arithmetic. There is a silver lining to the wide margin defeat of the Maoists. If the margin had been less wide, a NC-UML two party government would have been a foregone conclusion. But because the margins are wide and there was no pre-poll alliance between the NC and the UML, a NC-Maoist-Madhesi government also looks possible.

Or you could form a NC-Maoist government, and give the presidency to Mahantha Thakur and the speakership to the UML. Nembang, anyone?

Sushil Koirala for PM, Narayan Kaji or Mahara for DPM, Mahantha Thakur for president, Nembang for Speaker.

Both sides have to be flexible on the federalism question. I think we might be looking at about four states in the Terai and another four states in the Hills/Mountains. 30 Madhesi parties that have not been able to become one party do not have a moral right to talk about a single Madhesh pradesh, not anymore.

The two Maoists should unite. What will bring them together is a vision that Nepal will be made a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. How many votes you get in a national election will decide how much money you get from the state. And a party will have no other source of income. That agenda should be enough for the Baidya group to stop dreaming of another revolution.

All Madhesi parties should immediately start the exercise of launching a single Madhesi party.

If the two Maoist parties become one, and if the 30 Madhesi parties become one political party, these two parties will be the prime beneficiary of the local and state elections that will be held in perhaps April 2015. They will ride the anti-incumbency wave then. People like Hridayesh Tripathy who lost this election will show up as Chief Ministers perhaps.

That is the best bet for the Maoists and the Madhesis.

The most important lesson though is that the three million Nepalis who have been kicked off the voter list need to be brought back onto that list. That should be the number one gripe of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, and they should do something about it.

It is easy math. There are 30 million people in Nepal. More than half of Nepal is less than 30 years old. Which means roughly half of the population is of voting age. So if there are 15 million Nepalis of voting age, and only 12 million were on the list, that means three million were disenfranchised. And those three million were mostly of the DaMaJaMa background. Which means most of those three million would have voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

The entire country and all parties have to work to get those three million onto the voter list. It's just wrong to disenfranchise people. In a country where elections are won and lost by a few thousand votes routinely, and often times with a few hundred votes, the impact of kicking three million people off the voter list can not be exaggerated.

A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
Election 2013: The People Have Spoken
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Wednesday, March 20, 2013

How The FDRA Could Bring In Baidya, Yadav, Rai

English: Sketch portrait of Pushpa Kamal Dahal...
English: Sketch portrait of Pushpa Kamal Dahal, President of the communist party of Nepal-maoist Français : Pushpa Kamal Dahal, président du parti communiste népalais-maoïste Italiano: Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Presidente del partito comunista del Nepal-maoista (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The FDRA should leave no stone unturned to bring in the break away Maoist group, and Upendra Yadav's coalition and the two parties that broke away from the CPN(UML) and the NC as well fringe parties like those led by Sarita Giri.

The promise to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties should bring in Baidya. A fair share of seats and a promise to form a two thirds majority government, not a simple majority government should bring in Yadav and his coalition. The same might work for the two Rais.

Already the FDRA is poised to hit 55-60%. But 60% is not enough. You need 66%. And the FDRA expanding to include Baidya, the Yadav led coalition and the two Rai led parties would suffice to bring forth a two thirds majority in the next assembly for a coalition of federalists.

Dealing With The CPN(M)
The State Of Nepali Politics: A Diagram

Ashok Rai's party to take to streets against Regmi govt
UCPN (M), 19 parties to have common manifesto
the main contentious issue of election manifesto is the issues related to Madhes. Madhes-based parties have pressed the Maoists to give priority to their agenda, while preparing the election manifesto ..... The meeting also entrusted FDRA head Pushpa Kamal Dahal to hold talks with other parties and bring them on board, forging election alliances.
चुनावमा जान नेकपा-माओवादीका पाँच सर्त
एमाले नेता झा एमाओवादीमा प्रवेश गर्ने तयारीमा
Google Fiber Expanding Superfast Internet Service to Olathe, Kansas
Why Android home automation could top Google Glass
How Larry Page and the Knowledge Graph helped Ray Kurzweil decide to join Google
Marissa Mayer Backlash Reveals Double Standard for Women CEOs
Elizabeth Warren: Minimum Wage Would Be $22 An Hour If It Had Kept Up With Productivity
Katie Holmes Hot On Allure Cover, Talks Having More Kids And Becoming An Attorney (PHOTOS)
Google Hosts Narendra Modi at Tech Summit
A Nitish Kumar model for India or a Modi model for Bihar?
Modi declared that the business of governments was not business. He talked of harnessing solar energy by installing panels over canals and he suggested partial privatization of that holy cow, the railways .... Presently, 11 states have the special-status tag: the seven North-eastern States, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. .... The gap between the per capita income of Bihar and the national per capita income has kept widening since 1950-51 ..... “For Bihar, acceleration of the rate of growth of around 11 percent during the Eleventh Plan to around 13 percent during the Twelfth Plan will require a massive increase in total investment (public and private)—from around 29.9% in Eleventh Plan to around 45% during the Twelfth Plan period. This has got to be financed by domestic and government savings.”
Nitish Kumar’s coalition idea
Nitish Kumar lays out a new game plan
Bihar tops in per capita income growth; Gujarat at 11
Cyberattack shakes South Korea: Could North Korea have pulled it off?
Asteroids: Senator at space-threat hearing calls for Bruce Willis
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Monday, December 31, 2012

Mohan Baidya Has A Point


When all is said and done Nepal will have ended up like India, not China. India does not have a monarchy. India has federalism. The Indian democracy is not my idea of an attempt at classlessness. (China is not my idea of a democracy, but that is another topic.)

So far the Baidya-Badal group has used the party split as a pressure tactic upon the mother party. If you correct your ways we will reunite is the message.

Consolidating the achievements made so far - republic, secularism, federalism - is a sound strategy on the parts of the likes of Baburam Bhattarai. A Maoist return to an armed insurgency will simply undo the concrete achievements without bringing forth the classic Maoist dictatorship.

If an armed insurgency is not an option and if becoming India-like is not enough, what is to be done? I believe that option is non-violent. And it turns Nepal into a democracy unlike India, and gives Nepal a political system different from China.

The goal has to be to write a constitution in which Nepal is a multi-party democracy in which human rights, as defined by the UN Charter on the same, are guaranteed, but one where political parties are 100% funded by the state according to a formula that is democratic, the obvious one being you get funds in proportion to the number of votes you collect in an election.

When you take money out of politics like that you turn Nepal into a one person, one vote democracy. That makes the poor actively participate, that makes politicians want to invest lavishly in human capital, in education, in health and in credit availability.

In such a democracy the market forces will be given plenty of play. But there will also be options for the state to become part or majority shareholders in companies/corporations. You will not have nationalized industries, but you can have industries the state participates in. The state owning 5% or 10% or 20% of a company might be an interesting experiment in people power without muzzling the market forces. China will tell you the market is the best way to create wealth there ever was.

So I do think Mohan Baidya has a point. But another armed insurgency - "urban revolt" - is not a good option. The best option is in the constitution writing itself. A Nepal that is a multi-party democracy of completely state funded parties is a democracy better than what exists in India, in Britain, in America. And it will be a much better political system than China. China is only now gearing for political reform. That will mean more openness in its political system. Baidya should learn from China.

Where Mohan Baidya does not have a point is in thinking xenophobia is nationalism. His thinking equality for the Madhesis of Nepal is an Indian agenda is racist thinking. He should also learn from China about foreign direct investment (FDI). The more the merrier, China would tell Baidya. Baidya's stance on BIPPA, frankly, is stupid, it is ignorant. Politicians like Baidya would rather send young Nepali women to brothels in Mumbai than bring in FDI so jobs can be created for those women right there in Nepal.



CA demise deepens crisis
The 601-member Assembly, that was hailed as one of the most representative elected body ever in Nepali history saw its unceremonious demise at midnight on May 27 without producing the new constitution. ..... federalism is the major cause of CA´s dissolution .... With the emergence of caucuses comprise of cross-party lawmakers, these groups at times even challenged the whips of their respective parties on crucial issues such as determining a federal model...... leaders from ´traditional´ political parties mainly Nepali Congress and CPN-UML played negative role in the CA. ..... Congress President Sushil Koirala was the one who had for the first time lobbied against CA term extension by holding press conference immediately after then Law Minister Krishna Sitaula, from his own party, registered a bill to extend the CA at parliament. ..... In the absence of parliament, the country has been trapped in a quagmire. The political parties have neither a proper place to form new government nor a House to amend constitution to pave the way for new elections.
Year of dysphoria
Where did one of the most unemotional people on the planet find the energy to pursue the path leading towards freedom, equality and justice in the Spring Uprising 2006 and the Madhesh Uprisings 2007? ..... “Nobody would have a federal constitution if he could possibly avoid it.” His acolytes in Nepal are busy exploring all avenues of avoiding federalism and limiting it to decentralization as a concession. Devolution without recognition of identity can be termed de-concentration or decentralization, but not federalism. .... inclusion is the second most hated word in contemporary Nepal after federalism. ..... The legislature failed to resolve contradictions inherent in its composition and meekly accepted the supremacy of the judiciary. The judiciary in turn decided that the legislature had outlived its utility and declared that it must commit hara-kiri on a designated date. The executive ignored the wishes of the legislature, honored the directives of the court, and killed the mother that had birthed it. .... On every issue of concern of the marginalized and externalized population—democracy, federalism, inclusion, secularism and welfare economy—by and large the Nepali media stood solidly behind traditional forces. .... After his cooptation by banker, builder and business house nexus, the performance of Baburam Bhattarai has been extremely underwhelming. The tragedy is that all his likely successors appear equally uninspiring.
Social Democratic Party unveiled
The newly formed party has a 63-member central committee, including a seven-member presidium. The presidium accommodates Chaitanya Subba, Kumar Rai, Bam Kumari Budha Magar, Pasang Sherpa, Dalmardan Kami, Jyoti Danuwar and Nima Gyaljen Sherpa ..... SDP´s manifesto has four parts. In the introductory part of the manifesto, it has been claimed that the party has adopted the principle of federalism, social democracy, indigenism and pluri-nationalism. ..... The party has claimed that the characteristic of the state power has remained unchanged to date, with a particular class and race dominating the state power and politics. ...... It has stated that political parties, bureaucracy, civil society, media and intellectual society, which are dominated by elite and high caste, have stood against ethnicity-based federalism, right to self-determination, ethnic and regional autonomy.
Major parties seek five more days to form unity govt
राष्ट्रपतिसंग थप समय माग्ने संकेत
एकीकृत माओवादीका प्रवक्ता अग्नि सापकोटाले छैठौं म्याद पनि गुज्रिएपछि राष्ट्रपतिलाई के भन्ने त्यसबारे आफ्नो पार्टीको धारणा प्रष्ट भइनसकेको स्वीकारे। .... पुष २५ गतेसम्ममा सहमति नजुटे संविधानसभा पुनर्स्थापना गर्नु पर्ने विकल्प सत्तारुढ दलका नेताहरुले यसै साता अघि सारे।
KC comes down heavily upon UCPN (M)
Neutral government won’t deliver May election
political parties to sort out and recommend an agreeable government to take the country to elections. He has, until now, played a constructive role and has wide popularity so I don’t think he’d do anything that is not recommended by political parties. Second, those who are arguing in favour of a neutral government have a misguided perception.
भारतीय बिदेशमन्त्रीले राष्ट्रपतिलाई पाँच पटक भेटे
भारतले मिलाउँदैन, आफैं मिल्नुपर्छः राष्ट्रपति
राष्ट्रपतिको सवारीले दिउँसो दुई बजेदेखि ४ बजेसम्म राजधानीको ट्राफिक अस्तव्यस्त भएको थियो । राष्ट्रपति भारत जाँदा पनि सडकमा 'अघोषित कर्फ्यु' लगाउँदा दिनभर सडक अस्तव्यस्त भएको थियो ।
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